Chuck Wagon

We don't have the draft capital to trade up and have too many holes to fill already. QBs taken between pick ~8 and the end of the first round is an astronomically high bust rate, that's where desperate teams talk themselves into guys. There's too many potential impact players available at pick 10. If one of Watson / Trubinsky / Kizer / even Mahomes (though I agree with Kirby on his lottery ticketness) is available in round 2 at our pick (without moving up), I'd take them. I'm not opposed on using a pick in round 3 - 5 on a guy to fight with Cardale. But we need impact players at other positions outside of QB as well.

Almost half of Kizer's yards went to Fuller & Prosise in 2015. Prosise missed 3 games, 2 were losses to Stanford and OSU and the other was Wake Forest, which given the competition was likely Kizer's worst game of the year. Prosise had a 6 game stretch where he nearly averaged 140 ypg and that's with a 50 yard game in a loss against Clemson. I don't know how you can say he didn't miss those 2 guys, then blame everything on his receivers this year. You could just as easily say his numbers were inflated a bit this year because their defense was soo bad they were constantly playing catchup. I think Kizer certainly has a chance to succeed, he has all the physical tools, but I'm not the only one who wasn't thrilled with his season this year and it's not all on his young WRs.

Watson At this point a lot of the criticisms feel like a combination of classic cases: he's the guy whose been in the spotlight the longest so people pick the most nits on him, he's the National Championship winning QB and it's a bad thing because other national championship winning QBs haven't panned out, and I hate to go there, but judging by the comments of some people, there's a little bit of the race card aka "athletic QB" bias coming into the picture. Trubinsky feels like a classic case of "looking the part" combined with the intrigue of the unknown. Historically college playing time is a huge indicator of NFL success and Trubinksy just isn't there, not to mention he looked downright brutal in some pivotal moments this year. Kizer is intriguing because of his athletic gifts, but if you watched ND last year he got bailed out by Fuller and Prosise a ton, both of which have proven their chops at the NFL level. This play fell off dramatically this year when he didn't have those guys. Mahommes is also intriguing due to his arm talent and I do think he may be the guy most likely to end up in the best situation, giving him the best chance of success. He's my second pick. Chad Kelly won't make it to contract #2. Mahommes is clearly better than Davis Webb, hence why Webb had to transfer and Kaaya has always been unfulfilled hype.

Aaron Murray is a street free agent. Chase Daniel is 30. Mike Glennon is going to get someone to sucker themselves into a Brock Osweiler lite deal this offseason. Hundley and McCarron are cheap backups who'll likely command more draft capital than they are worth in trade.

I don't know how you can't call Cam elite. He's certainly got some things to work on, but he dominated the league in 2015 with Greg Olsen and little else around him. Also, the Rams weren't a bottom 3 team when they drafted Goff. They certainly lacked talent with their receivers and their line, but technically Dak went to a "worse" team than the Rams were in 2015. That being said, the general gist is right that Dak stepped into a perfect situation and Goff stepped into a mess, but also largely because the strengths of the Cowboys (line and run game) allowed Dak to succeed while the weaknesses of the Rams prevented Goff from doing the same. I completely understand the sample. I'm just explaining that 6% odds executed over 10 attempts isn't 60% likelihood of success, it's about 12%.

With those odds if you took 1 a year in the 1st 2 rounds (excluding in the top 3) for 10 years you would have a 62.5% chance that one of those guys would be what we are deeming a "franchise guy." - I'm 99% sure that's not how math works, I'm pretty sure it's closer to a ~15% chance over 10 attempts- I understand both sides of the coin. If you don't have a QB, not much else matters (unless you do EVERYTHING) right, but the people who say "take a QB every year" simply do not understand the cap dynamics of the current league or the gambler's fallacy in the position. I'm a firm believer that coaching and team situation are dramatic influences on the success of the QB position. Almost everyone drafted can sling the ball and has the physical traits to play the QB position in the league. However, more often than not, the ones who develop into true franchise QBs are put in a situation to flourish unless they are blessed with out of this world physical tools (ie Cam). If you put Tom Brady on the expansion Browns and Tim Couch on the Patriots behind Bledsoe, I think you'd have a dramatically different last 2 decades of NFL history. Brady / Roethlisberger / Russell Wilson / Flacco / Dak are all guys who were put in situations that asked very little of them when they started playing. Rodgers sat for several years and stepped into a playoff team. Even though Carr was drafted onto a terrible team, they immediately made significant investments in the offensive line and skill positions around him. Absent the guys that are so talented everyone's reached a consensus on (the Cams, Lucks and Jameis's of the world, of which there are none in the class) success at the position is almost entirely dependent on a perfect congruence of talent, situation and coaching. I don't believe we've add the receiver talent to allow a QB to succeed since the days of Moulds and Price and even then our line (and his mobility) nearly got Bledsoe killed. I would like to see Tyrod get some better weapons, better coaching and an upgrade at RT to see what he can do. I'm not opposed to taking a guy in the 3rd to 5th round to compete with Cardale, but if our QB is Tyrod or Cardale or rookie to be named later, we need to see improvements in several areas before the guy has a chance to succeed. 10th is not the place to take a QB, you are ultimately talking yourself into day 2 or even day 3 talent at that spot as the "can't miss" QBs are going top 3, you are also passing on a likely "franchise" level talent at a different position (seriously, look at the success of QBs drafted in that range vs other positions, absent a headcase situation you really have to try to not get an eventual pro bowler there). We are drafting in the top 10 for a reason, we don't have the talent to allow a QB to succeed, give Tyrod another shot with better talent around him while also giving the next guy a better chance at success.

Still not a weather game.

Jeez, reading some of you one would think the Pats have won the last 11 Super Bowls. They've won 1 in the last 11 years and even then they were a yard away from losing that one. If it were a weather game I'd have to give the edge to the Pats, but in Houston inside the dome I think the Falcons speed is too much for them to overcome. The Pats haven't seen anything remotely resembling this ATL offense this year. I know BB is magic and all that, but the Falcons are set up for this type of game.

Not to mention Kyle Shanahan was the Browns OC 2 years ago before they allowed him to leave while still under contract. Now he's one of the hottest coordinators (soon to be head coaches) in the game. The Browns of 2014 weren't that far off, that was a true turning point for the franchise (and for the Raiders franchise). It was a loaded draft and somehow the Browns managed to take the two worst picks of the first round, not to mention following it up for a pretty awful 2015 draft as well.

I was 11, now my daughter is 2. Over the last 23 years I've lost all faith that we'll see the Bills in the Super Bowl before she is 11.

When I get admitted to the psych ward I'm going to be muttering "There's not much difference in importance between RT and LT in today's NFL" over and over again. Von Miller won the Super Bowl blowing up a right tackle repeatedly. Vic Beasley just lead the league in sacks predominately rushing the right tackle. I really wish some people on here would pay more attention to what's happening league wide in regards to the importance of positions like RT and Safety and less time worrying about what Russ Brandon had for dinner.

With Lynn in LA, perhaps a simple Taylor for Rivers swap would benefit both franchises.

Romo is not going to be a Bill. Jerruh likes him too much to deal him somewhere he doesn't want to go and there's no reason for him to want to come here. The only places I see as realistic possibilities for him is someone who could win the SB (like Denver) or a major market (NY or LA or potentially Chicago given his roots to the area) to allow him to begin to transition to a potential media career.

Cleveland - RG3 will start day 1 but they'll draft Trubinsky - They'll take the Cleveland kid, Jimmy H. is too much of a business man to let the moneyball guys just do their thing. They can sell the local kid while still having plenty of picks later in the draft to help stockpile young talent. SF - Hoyer starts, they draft Watson - They've preached the importance of culture, Hoyer was somewhat decent when Shanahan was the OC in Cleveland, I think they'll bring him in to be the stopgap with Watson (the "it" culture guy) as the future. Bears - Matt Barkley (with Kizer drafted) - Barkley wasn't terrible and he's still youngish, I think they take a QB of the future in Kizer but bring back Barkley for a continued run. Kizer is also a Midwest guy and I think he would do well with their fanbase as a departure from Cutler. I know I have QBs going 1-2-3 and no one else does. I know these QBs are certainly not sure thing guys. However, all 3 check the boxes in regards to character and intangibles and given the cast of retreads there is to choose from outside of the draft I think all three roll the dice on their potential franchise guys. (Also, I want 3 QBs off the board by 10 to push more talent down.) Jets - They are the biggest wildcard team in the whole mix. I could see them going with a "proven" option, thinking they aren't that far away from being in the playoffs with a guy like Cutler or Kaepernick. Or I could see them mortgaging the farm to trade up to get Trubinsky or Watson. Or I could see them going with a guy like Glennon. Bills - TT - Assuming Childress is the hire, I think our offense will be focused on ball control. I think TT will redo his contract to make it more palatable and be back. McD has been around mobile QBs for the majority of his career, first McNabb and then Cam. I think the braintrust realizes there's really not better options, though I think we take a guy like Mahomes or Kaaya in round 3-4 to add another body in the room competing with Cardale. Broncos - Romo - Siemian & Lynch are cheap enough to stay as backups while bringing Romo in, I don't think Elway is going to let the offense vs defense issues go unaddressed. Texans - Can they do anything drastic given their cap situation? I think Savage and Osweiler will be battling it out all offseason. I don't think Jimmy G. moves, he's still cheap for another year and Brady is 40, anything can happen with him. I'm sure if someone offered a top 10 pick for Jimmy, they'd trade him, but I don't think that offer is coming. Cutler and Kaepernick are two I have trouble placing. At this point Cutler has critics with most every team in the league and he may be looking at a severe pay cut and a backup role type of situation. I would say the Jets might make sense as much as anyone, but from Marshall's recent quotes it doesn't seem like he's giving Jay any recommendations to the team. Kaepernick wasn't awful last year, especially given the talent around him and that situation there. San Fran might keep him for a year or he might go somewhere like Houston were he could rehab his value on a 1 year deal.

I think this is a very innovative idea that I enjoy. My tweak....it seems 18 games is an inevitability, hopefully eliminating the preseason in the process. I would love to see a 15 game conference schedule, where every team plays every other team once, combined with rotating 3 game cross conference matchups.

I think the Jags opted for stability knowing Marrone had been a HC before. I'm sure he sold a lot of BS about being the guy to turn Bortles around and the defense being on the cusp (which looks true). It also doesn't hurt that Coughlin is now the president, in a potential position to step in as HC should a change be needed and he'll be well schooled on the franchise. Gruden / Cowher / Dungy are never coming back. Once you leave the grind and you are still clearing 7 figures working what essentially amounts to a part time job you don't want to come back to the grind. They've all won SBs, there's not much more for them to prove. Saban isn't coming back either, he's got Bama on cruise control and can potentially be viewed as the greatest college coach of all time. Harbaugh is the one big name I think could come back to the NFL, but only in the right situation (given his history with the franchise and with Luck, the Colts job may be "the right situation"). I think Patricia and McDaniels are both also waiting for situations they can succeed in, aka have a QB. I do think the Bills / Chargers / Rams / Broncos all took the view of choosing the unknown over the known, hoping to strike gold with their picks.

I agree on the TT - Smith comparisons. Others have pointed out KC's defense and it's obvious we need dramatic improvements defensively to improve as a team. You are on the right track with Williams, but a largely underrated point when comparing us to the Chiefs is the lack of difference makers at the skill positions. We have Shady and Sammy just like they have Charles and Maclin, but behind those two they have Kelce, Hill, Ware, West and Conley. IMO that group leaves Clay / Gillislee / Woods etc well in the dust. If TT is willing to renegotiate, I'm all for keeping him around. My biggest hang up is his contract explodes next year. My preferred path forward would be TT on a renegotiated deal with Cardale and another 3rd / 4th round developmental QB battling it out between each other behind him. Bottom line is we need more playmakers at the skill positions and in the secondary.

Or O'Brien

And I want $7 million dollars

My point (counter-point) would be you simply don't see polished QBs being produced by college football. It takes a lot of work to make a QB and the vast majority of the position is intangibles, putting in the work to improve and gameplan, having the mentality to be a leader and everything else on the mental side. At this point in his career Tom Brady can't make all the throws and he can't run around the field, but mentally he's the best. Cardale Jones can make every throw (his accuracy is another question) but the game is moving a million miles per hour for him. Everyone around Watson has said he's got the mental side more than covered, that's the reason people like him. You can improve mechanics, hard work should be able to improve accuracy, playing at NFL speed will help understand throwing windows (though I don't think it's that far off to say defensively Bama is at a comparable talent level to at least the Browns, if not some other bad defenses) but if the QB doesn't have the mental side he's simply not going to work out.

Someone had to say it. It seems when it comes to a kid like Watson a significant portion just sees "black spread offense QB" and writes him off. I've seen comparisons and critiques of him on this board where it's very clear the people making them have not actually watched him play. I've been saying all along he's the guy I want, but I hope he likes Lebron and Cleveland now (though the moneyball guys may think they are outsmarting the room again and trade him). There's no way he gets passed all the QB desperate teams at the top of the draft. Pro style college offenses are dinosaurs. There's a few left like Stanford, Michigan and Bama being high profile ones, but otherwise smart coaches have realized the impact athletes can have at the QB position and the stress spacing the field places on defenses. If people solely want to draft a QB who played in a "pro system" the available pool of players is extremely small and one NFL starting QB under the age of 30 (Luck) came through that type of pipeline.

Garrett or Jonathan Allen I don't see any of the QBs worth trading up to get. At least one will likely go before 10 (I hope) and Watson is likely my favorite of the group but I would be apocalyptic if Whaley made this move. Also, do we have to use the "R word"? I get that's a saying, but we can use a better word choice.

I believe the job of HC is too big now to be overly involved with one side of the ball or the other. I think this is a big reason you see a lot of the special teams coaches excel at a head job, they are able to take a step back and see the big picture. I can't help but wonder if Marrone meddled too much on the offensive side (causing their performance to decline) while Rex has meddled too much on the defensive side (causing the see saw). Neither coach is what I would consider a good game day general, focusing too much on either side of the ball (and not letting the DC/OC do their job) would likely take away from in game performance.

Right now it's definitely the stigma. We are quickly raising up the ranks in all time playoff droughts in NFL history. Just get off that list. But I absolutely agree the goal shouldn't be "just get in" it should be a team built to win the championship. Get off the "longest droughts in NFL history" list, then we can worry about postseason success.

If this is the case, he should be fired now. There's no point in having a decision maker you don't trust and if Doug truly is on an extremely short leash then he clearly has incentive to make decisions in his own best interest.