There is definitely an over reliance on analytics in football. Several posters of already noted the small sample size in most of the statistics which significantly limits any predictive value. I would also like to see standard deviation measures in football analytics. I’m guessing the standard deviation will be quite high making it even more difficult to predict in a specific situation. A nomothetic approach doesn’t work with a small sample size. In this case an idiographic or situational approach is better.
The only place in sports where analytics seem to work well is in baseball regarding the infield shifts. And this is only because most hitters are unable or unwilling to change how they hit.
also, keep in mind that when a coach makes a decision based on the situation and not on analytics this is not just using his “gut”. These decisions are usually based on accumulated empirical information gained from experience.