It's kind of fun to play with the simulator but to me it looks like winning out is our best chance at avoiding Baltimore, if we want to avoid them. I assume most other playoff contenders win as well.
If Indy wins next and we win against Pats, a loss to Miami the following week I think we play Baltimore either 2 vs 7 or 3 vs 6 depending no matter the outcome of Cleveland Pitt.
If Pitt wins next week, we probably avoid Baltimore and could play Indy, Cleveland or Miami.
Edit it does change a bit depending on who wins tonight lol I was basing on Pitt winning after this surge.