Yes, that’s just it; I don’t know just how involved AQ is, neither I bet do you. Very important question don’t you think? Like you said these people don’t know how to govern themselves because of all the years of oppression. They may be replacing the one nutcase ruler (Saddam) with another (the AQ influence). I do think it would be a lot easier to pacify all the different factions in Iraq without the interference from AQ.
As far as the short long term, I think we should disengage from direct contact and full military operations with the combatants, concentrate more on the boarders and intelligence, continue training and advisement, and conduct Special Forces intervention operations went needed. We leave or scale down when the Iraqi government/military can do the above operations. I doubt anyone could tell you exactly how long that will take.