Didn’t think it would be that high due to the amount of divisional games Jags, Colts and Texans have between each other. Jags or Texans could leap frog the Colts depending how things go with the Colts, if that happened, would presumably still be in one of the Wild Card slots.
Couple that with the Chiefs still having to play the Texans, Broncos and Chargers I would expect 30% or <.
Saving grace for the Chiefs is they okay the Raiders and Titans… that should be 2 wins guaranteed.