Sammy Watkins' Rib

It is pretty huge. A loss tomorrow or Thursday really puts us behind in the division race. Probably quite a bit more so than last seasons loss to the Colts when we fell behind in the division race. One obvious difference would be that we have not one but two teams ahead of us and they've each already managed to take a game from us. But yeah, on the flip side, win both and we catapult from 6-3 to 8-3 in a matter of days. Still very likely to be at best 2nd in the division though heading into week 13 and the month of December. That's why these next two games are so crucial. Best case scenario Bills are in 2nd place to a team they've already lost too going into the final stretch.

The only other way I would also look at this is that Allen was such a raw QB prospect coming out of the draft and taking a meteoritic rise in his third season I would lean towards giving McDermott a pass in years 1 and 2 with Allen since realistically the Bills were not winning a super bowl in either of those two seasons. If we are okay with that assumption than we can view this season of McDermott/Allen as their 3rd season. That logic also makes sense to me because it would mean next season is the true make or break season for the McDermott/Allen era as it would be year #4. And really, the only way I could see McDermott not back next season is if the Bills miss the playoffs this year entirely. Even not winning the division and getting bounced in the first year I think McDermott would come back for a final prove it year.

This is a much better post than your OP. I haven't fact checked all your numbers but I will assume they are correct. Putting it this way I see what you mean with Reid having quick success with the Chiefs with Mahomes since it took Reid to his 7th year to win the Super Bowl with the Chiefs. Now of course McDermott is in a different situation because the Bills already have their franchise QB. Allen's not going anywhere. This is a pretty concerning list if I am McDermott and want to hold onto my job. It all boils down to expectations. The greater the expectations the greater the floor on having to clear the minimum expectation. Right now the Bills probably have the highest expectation floor in all of football. Let's face it, it's nearly Thanksgiving and right now the Bills do have a very real chance of not winning the division. Don't win the division and don't win a playoff game this year when the expectation is at a minimum the AFC championship game and maybe more likely a Super Bowl appearance, that is how a really good coach gets bounced. You do have a guy like Sean Payton currently looking for a job. IMO, Sean Payton is one of the more over-rated coaches in NFL history. But my opinion also doesn't mean much at all in NFL executive circles. But yeah, just look at the numbers in this new post by the OP. There's no question they should be concerning for McDermott who is now in his 5th year with Allen. We should break it down more though. How many teams tossed the HC aside and went on to win a super bowl with the same franchise QB but with a new coach? Based on the above data we know that super bowl would have been won between year 1 and year 4 in nearly every case but how many of those cases are there, with again, the same QB since we know Allen isn't going anywhere?

my additions added in Bold since if it is important to point out the coaches McDermott has loss to we might as well as point out who he has beaten. And that is only for this year. I think McDermott is 2-0 career against McVay? 1-0 against Shanhan? 1-0 against Carrol? winning records against Tomlin and Harbaugh. Has handed Belicheck his worst loss of his coaching career and beaten him in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Yeah...but that's like less than 6 feet of snow. On a serious note though, don't the players and staff still have to get to the airport somehow from all the different areas in which they live? I still feel like they potentially could have played this game in Buffalo without a crowd. If they could somehow clear the field. I've seen the argument that they don't want to use the resources to clear the path to the stadium, but the stadium is pretty much in a residential area anyway so there would be a public safety benefit to clearing the roads around the stadium.

Sean Payton is pretty much thought of as a legend around the league. The point is all it really takes is one. Could come this year for McDermott or in year 12.

100?

I think your OP pointed out some valid realities of how you can be the victim of your own success. Higher achievements lead to higher expectations. Whenever expectations are not met a coach can start to get on the hot seat. Even if they are winning every year. I think Mike McCarthy is the perfect example of that. Super Bowl winning coach who continually head the Packers winning the division and sometimes the #1 seed. Even a Super Bowl victory ultimately couldn't save him. However, your "aside" is rather ridiculous and pointless if I am being honest.

You need to go back and google how new Reid was too the Chiefs. You will be surprised. I thought maybe he got them to the Super Bowl in like his 5th year with the Chiefs. But no, it was even longer than that.

I want to say pretty early in their tenures with the exception of Andy Reid. So that gave them a hall pass on any lack of super bowl success down the road. Reid of course was fired after having a lot of success with Philly because ultimately, he couldn't get them over the hump. But even when he came to Kansas City it took him seven years to both make and win the Super Bowl. So far McDermott's best comps are somewhere between Marvin Lewis and Philly Andy Reid.

Everyone is aware of the similarities. They slump we are currently in really is nearly identical to the one from last season. Certainly, some circumstances are different. Last year's team was pretty much fully healthy. This year's team has been extremely banged up. Especially on the defensive side. The euphoria: 2021: Bills are riding high coming off a huge October 10th win at Arrowhead and lead the league in point differential by a wide margin. On October 18th they lose a close game to the Titans but the offense looks as explosive as ever. Despite the loss, the Bills enter their bye week at 4-2 as super bowl favorites and Allen is the favorite for MVP. 2022: It's 2021 again but on steroids. The Bills entered the season as super bowl favorites and Allen entered the season as the MVP favorite. The Bills meet their lofty expectations and that only drives the Bills Super Bowl odds and Allen's MVP odds to historic lows for the month of October. After a tough fought victory at Arrowhead on October 16th the Bills enter their bye week with a 5-1 record. Stumbling out of the bye week: 2021: On Halloween the Bills found themselves in a 3-3 tie at the half against the Dolphins before ultimately pulling away late in the fourth quarter. It was perhaps Beasley's greatest game as Bill that I can recall. He hauled in 10 of 13 targets for 110 yards and converted 6 first downs out of them. Because the Bills had been so dominant not many worried about the upcoming schedule and certainly not the upcoming game in Jacksonville. 2022: On Halloween- Eve the Bills get out to a 17-point half time lead on the Packers. It's the Dolphins game but in reverse. After the half they are outscored 10-3. Allen makes two very careless decisions with the ball that end up as INT's. The feelings after this game were a bit different than 2021. The bar was set so high for Allen and he had been pretty much averaging 3+ TDs and nearly 400 yards of total offense per game up to this point that to have a 2 TD 2 INT game with under 300 total yards was very disappointing even if in reality it just shows that Superman does take a day off every now and then. For me, more specifically I knew the Jets game the coming week would be against the best defense the Bills had faced all year so I was curious how the offense would look. WTH?: 2021: In perhaps the upset of the year the Jags (+14.5 point dog) beat the Bills in Jacksonville in a 9-6 final. The following week the Bills route a bad Jets team. And on November 21st the Bills playing at home get blown out by one of the hottest teams in the league in the Colts who entered the game against the Bills as winners of 5 of their last 7 games with the only two losses in that span being over-time defeats. With this loss the Bills relinquish the AFC East division lead to the Patriots on November 21st. 2022: The Bills as heavy favorites lose to the Jets (+11.5 point dog) on the road. Allen once again throws 2 INT's the first of which looked to me like one of the worst decisions, you'll see a QB make. The following week the Bills have one of the hottest teams in the league coming to Buffalo, the 7-1 Vikings, winners of six straight. Their only blemish a loss to an undefeated team. The Bills would relinquish their division lead on November 13th after losing to the Vikings on the back of 2 more Allen INTs. What's next?: In 6 days, the Bills, once again looking up in the division standings, will play a road game on Thanksgiving Day just as they did last year on Thanksgiving in New Orleans during a slump where they entered the game losers of 3 of their last 6 games. But before the Bills play a road game in Detroit on Thanksgiving, we will find out if they enter that game once again losers of 3 of their last 6 games. Because before they play a road game in Detroit against the Lions, they'll play a home game in Detroit against the Browns.

Winning percentage of the 10 teams that go for it the most = 0.484 Winning percentage of the 10 teams that go for it the least= 0.489 Winning percentage of the 12 teams in the middle= 0.522

Doctor botched it.

We need a larger sample size before we can determine things are truly different or gone south from Daboll to Dorsey. So far, this season is nearly identical to last season through the same number of games. If anything, Allen was even better in September/October to start this season then he was last season. And then come November the offense stalled, and Allen's play went down. Allen and the offense seemed to regain form on Thanksgiving last year (I'm throwing out the wind storm game the following week). We have the Thanksgiving game coming up in less than a week. Let's see if this recent skid in the offense will just be a 2-3 game skid like it was last season.

We should go more 2 RB sets anyway. Force Allen to check it down.

I always thought the safer thing would have been to keep the game in Buffalo but close it off completely to fans. Most employees could stay home. No longer a big deal after 2020. In-stead now we have thousands of Bills fans trying to travel from WNY and wherever else to get to Detroit in what I would suspect are not that great of road conditions.

I like the idea of keeping the game in Buffalo but having no fans. Perhaps unthinkable a couple years ago pre covid 2020 season but now not such a big deal. Probably wise to move to a 4pm start time though. Looks like the worst of the storm will be over by midnight so that gives the roads department a little ore time to clear the way. No need to clear the stands with no fans. And do we really need a few thousand fans driving the highways from western ny to Detroit trying to make a game?

Could be this Sunday.

I think we all know what the outcomes gonna be.I think we all know what the outcomes gonna be.

Has this one been dubbed the greatest game of all time number two yet? Bills are going to put on a show if they ever make it back to the Super Bowl.

It wasn’t a bad ball but just combined with what seemed to be a general thought process of taking end zone shots on every down seems over aggressive. I guess in hindsight is what I’m saying. Seemed like that was the plan.

Just ridiculously over aggressive onn first and second downs there. Allen is killing them with his legs on that drive and we have RB's open for easy gains. A tie would have been better than a loss. Seems a tie was at least part of the thought process. Take end zone shots on the first three downs and then on 4th and 10 kick the FG?

I mostly agree. But he did have one of the worst INT's I've ever seen on our first drive of the game against the Jets that likely cost us at least 3 points. His INT's in these last 3 games with the exception of the 4th down INT today (had to throw it) have been mind boggling. I have faith he will work out of it and at the same time I am kind of convinced Allen will always have these problems. I've been saying for a while now he will rip our heart out many times but he'll also be the reason for joy many more. I don't expect his style of play to change. But he certainly won't always make the kind of mistakes he is now at the rate that he is.

Do you trust Allen right now to not try and force a play?

Option C. Unfortunately with the way Allen is playing right now you have to factor in that he might force a ball into tight coverage trying to make a play.