Sammy Watkins' Rib

Everyone has their own opinions. I like QBR overall more because it makes sense to take into account game circumstances, drops, qb rushing etc. With out all of those things you end up with misleading passer rating stats. That doesn’t mean QBR doesn’t have it’s own issues. It would be great if we know exactly how it is calculated for every game. But all in all, if you have a season long sample size I tend to side with QBR over just passer rating metric.

passer rating by itself has it’s flaws though. Allen still ranks 3rd overall in QBR. Ahead of Burrow and Hurts.

Yes. Most weeks. But we are playing Miami. Who is more pass centric / big play than Miami this year? And I'll take JA holding up in bad weather over Tua every time.

I don't disagree. But folks were suggesting the Bills would be at a disadvantage compared to their competition. That might be true most weeks, but the Fins are actually one of the only teams where that is not true. Tua will be negatively affected much more than Josh in inclement weather.

Because of how their team is built, not just because of where they’re from.

Joe Burrow vs. Allen will simply come down to the MNF match up. Both have good stats. Allen leads him in total yards by about 300, and they are tied in total TD's. As of this morning, per Bovada, Hurts is the leader at -110 then Mahomes +140, and Burrow +700. That MNF game will go a long way for either Burrow or Allen. But at this point it is likely too little too late for either to catch Hurts.

If the Dolphins want to only attempt 3 passes all game that would be a dream come true. Two completely different offenses Pats vs. Dolphins.

More so than the fish? They might be the only team in the league more neutralized by bad weather.

Allen's worst game of the season was the one he injured the UCL on the second to last play of the game. The UCL could be bothering him still but it is not necessarily the reason for his slump. And at any rate, he has at least played much better since Thanksgiving on-ward. Today's game was once again against, likely, the best defense the Bills will face all season. And in terrible weather for at least half the game. Opponent and circumstances included it was a plus performance from Allen.

Bills defense has figuratively and literally broken Mike White in two consecutive years now.

yeah. I think it is Hurts to lose. mahomes will have to at the very least regain the one seed. Even then that may not even be enough. But no one seed, no chance for him.

Hurts…

Odd thread. 2019? Does OP not remember the 2021 season? A season that was very similar to this one. More so than the 2019 season for sure.

Weather looks way better out there right now. Probably see a much higher scoring second half.

Even more. It was at least a full 2 yards.

Seriously. What is the deal with not running the ball today? First down and Allen drops back and takes a sack.

Run the damn ball you Morons!

The #2 seed gets to play a #7 seed though. I think over time we will find that the #7 seed more often not is a pretty bad team and not a good match for a #2 seed. I don't agree with Nick Wright on much of anything but when he used the term "better than a bye" last year in reference to the #2 seeded Chiefs playing the #7 Steelers, I mostly agreed. We have seen teams be a little rusty coming out of first round bye's. It's not the end of the world to play a home game in the wild card round against the #7 seed. The biggest advantage of the 1 seed over the 2 seed is the home field advantage in the conference championship game.

I'd be fine with Ariza trying out again with the Bills this off-season. No reason to bring him back before the season is over though.

doc sliced open a little too deep

They are the Dynasty of... one. This really is a pretty wild stat that they are 1-5 against the top two teams in the AFC. Needing a miracle to get that one win. Too their credit at least all of the games except for the regular season loss last year to the Bills were close games coming down to the final minute. I'd like to see the Bills avoid having to play both KC or Cincinnati till the conference title game. Bills need that to fall into their laps with the seeding.

You're right Diggs is right there with Jefferson. I was kind of taking the QB into account maybe too much. I thought the three first team all pro wr's this year were set but in Diggs, Hill and Jefferson but now Adams is making a strong push. 12TD's, 79 receptions and nearly 1200 yards. There is going to be a very deserving WR left off of first team all pro.

The most important number is always #1, as in #1 seed. Every year multiple QB's will have eye popping numbers. Only one in each conference will have the #1 seed. And when you get a year when one QB is 16-1 or 15-2 and the other QB's are all sitting on 3 or 4 losses that often ends up being a determining factor. Allen needs to start piling on the TD's then over total yards. As it should in my opinion. I think Mahomes only way back is retaining the #1 seed by the end of the season.

I need Dallas -11 to hit a 7 team Parlay. Only put a $1 on it but it pays around $100. Tua already screwed me out of my largest wager today which was a six team teaser. I just knew the worst would happen when they were down six with under two minutes left. Needed the Dolphins to cover+10.

380 yards passing and 4 total TD's today for Hurts. Hurts has to be strongly in the discussion now for MVP. Maybe the leader after this weeks games. #1 seed continues to be the number one determing factor in an MVP and he has that on lock down in the NFC. His stats are really good too. I think he probably only trails Mahomes and Allen in total TD's. And he's one of the league leaders in passer rating. Allen still has a good shot as well. The KC loss opens things up quite a bit.