Sammy Watkins' Rib

Very true. And his route tree has an extremely high percentage of go balls and deep routes with lower catch percentages. He's averaging what 17+ ypr? If he had a catch percentage in the high 60% range with that ypr he'd be an all-pro candidate at the position. Those are not reasonable expectations for a #2 WR. I still go back to that Colt's WC game and we really owe it to Davis and Allen in that game for delivering the Bills their first playoff win in 25+ years. IMO, Davis just needs to see a touch fewer targets as Allen and Dorsey make a commitment to get the ball to the RB's and TE's more.

Josh Allen is a big part of the problem. He has to start throwing to the RB's and TE's more if the Bills are going to make it back to the Super Bowl. The blame does not all go onto Dorsey.

Why? One is a first team all-pro and we only play two on the field at the same time. We should draft a LB, but not necessarily in the first or second round.

Very good chance both Shaq and AJ Klein take snaps for the Bills next year at some point.

Agreed. But I think they like Brown's potential enough that they wait till round 3 or later to go OT. My current wish for round 1 is a TE and I hope it means an overhaul in offensive philosophy, with not one but two tight ends getting 50+ receptions. With Beanes track record with DE's and DL, I don't think I can get on board with any one at those positions in round one.

If we think of it logically, Beane knew last April going into that draft that there was probably a better than 50% chance that Edmunds would walk the next off-season. I 100% think that he drafted Bernard with that likely scenario in mind. We have barely seen Bernard so hard to make a real opinion on him. Dotson very well could be the break glass in case of fire fall back. But I would expect a day 3 pick or cheap veteran (Klein?) to be brought in.

Good thread OP but I have some counter points. 1. All three guys are on the roster, so what is he supposed to say? " Yeah, we are replacing all three, they were not good enough". 2. I think there is something to be said for the unrealistic expectations for Gabe Davis going into last year. He is a #2 receiver but many of us, myself included had preseason predictions that Gabe would lead the Bills in receiving yards and TD's. Diggs would continue his decline from his 2020 season and Davis would emerge after that playoff game and getting starting WR reps. Diggs obviously proved many of us wrong, he was not on the decline in anyway, for most the season he was on pace to better his career best number in 2020. Gabe, as has been pointed out by others since the end of the season, has put up average #2 WR numbers. He's not a 1B receiver but he's a capable #2 starting outside WR. The problem lies in that he should most likely at this point not be way ahead of all others as the #2 receiving target. That should be the slot receiver or TE. Or at the very least, Gabe should only be a few targets ahead of one of them. Not greatly out targeting them. 3. Brown is an athletic freak at his size. Like Josh Allen, Brown may need extra time before he breaks out. Allen broke out in his 3rd year, this is the year for Brown to prove he has what it takes to hold down the RT spot. Hopefully he can have a fully healthy offseason and start to the season. 4. Ed Oliver. I don't think he is tradeable, and he is under contract. Who is going to give up assets for Ed? Whatever the return could possibly be it would be so small that it would be better to just keep him and see if he breakouts. What are the Bills supposed to do or say? Where I have some real criticism of Beane is his nonchalant use of day 2 picks on RB's in 3 out of the last 4 drafts. At the very most we should have used 1 pick at the position on day 2 or early. By using three picks and only getting average at best production out of those picks, the Bills prevented themselves from bettering other areas of the roster. Imagine two more o-lineman, or o-lineman and a WR over Moss and Cook. The Bills would have lost absolutely nothing at the running back position while giving them a chance to find talent at other position groups. I don't love all the DE/DL picks, especially when you have to couple it with a expensive free agent signing but at least those are players at premium positions.

These guys think the Bills are good at Tight End I guess. Or they forgot about the position? We at least do need a #2 tight end, even if it is a late round.

also, Josh Allen’s fault but yeah let’s just 100% pile the guilt on to Dorsey. Knox’s numbers last year were very similar to his numbers in 2021 under Daboll.

of course, but that’s like saying, let’s take the Randy Moss typewide receiver. like any other position just because you take a tight end in the first round does not mean they are a can’t miss player. Hayden hurst now on his fourth team, and Mike Geseiki, the dolphins version of the bills Tremaine Edmunds, both come to mine as former first round tight ends. If the bills do draft a tight end in the first round it would certainly mean a pretty drastic change in play calling and offensive philosophy. Which might not be a bad thing.

34 points scored. this argument started because it was said that the offense sucked in both playoff games. That is blatantly false.

Beasley dropping a pass for an INT, Allen not protecting the ball on a strip sack, Allen throwing up a bad ball to John Brown. How do we contribute all of those to Dorsey? Despite those three terrible turnovers and the Knox drop the Bills still scored 34 points. But that is a bad offensive outing? No, they just made critical errors not attributed to the OC and still scored 34.

Dabboll had the same issues as I recall. Mid-season slumps have been a thing with the Bills offense dating back to 2020.

Good point. The Bills and Allen especially were on an unreal pace for total yards early in the season. Then they fail back to mean. It wasn't all due to late season weather either but that does play roll. We know the offense has the ability to put up 440 ypg. That is the average they were at through 6 games and going into the Packers game. They finished the season at 397 yards pe game. Second behind the Chiefs. So not bad at all still. Some of those yards could come from Allen running 10-15 yards less per game. And if they sustain better offensive efficiency utilizing the backs and Knox more they could maybe average around 415 ypg. So you are plus about 20 yards and then have an extra 10 or 15 yards with Allen running less. So plus 30-35 yards per game to spread out to Knox and the RB's.

It is. The other thing about that analogy is that it is pretty true of guys with classic auto's like that. They don't use them much. And that happens to be the case with Knox. Until we start using him I can't put him in higher tiers. The fact of the matter is we use him like a JAG starting TE and he should be viewed as such until that changes. All the advanced metrics of separation rate really don't mean much until it is all put together.

As I have alluded to in the past with Knox, you are what your numbers say you are until you change them. Theoretically, given his advanced separation metrics, Knox should be a top 8 even top 5 tight end in this league. BUT, he's consistently been around 12-15 in yards and receptions these last two years. We can complain all day long about Dorsey and Allen needing to get the ball to Knox and I do agree with that, but eventually you are what the raw numbers say you are. The offense needs to change a lot. As much as the offense needs to get the ball to Knox more it needs to get it to the collection of RB's even more so. We will see if happens.

I like Ekeler because I really think the key is to use the RB as a weapon in the passing game. Even if Ekler only lasts a season I think the long-term positive impact of having Allen throw to a RB 70+ times is priceless. Get it entrenched in him. We want Allen to use his legs less, right? A lot of that is going to mean getting the ball out to the RB's. Supposedly McD and Beane are preaching Allen using his legs less. So, what is their solution? Just hand the ball off up the middle more but don't throw to the backs more? That's a terrible solution.

The flip side is that the elite QB is supposed to open up space for the RB. Maybe the problem is that Josh himself runs too much? So even though he can threaten defenses with his arm teams are still staying close to the line to keep him from using his legs.

Left to right?

When is the last time a team won a Super Bowl with a star RB? Or even made it to the Super Bowl with one? Gurley is the guy that most recently comes to mind and that was back in 2018. I wouldn't say you need a start RB, but you do need a running game and even more importantly, you need to throw the ball to the Rb's. The dude with 7 rings lived off of dumping the ball off to the RB's. Mahomes dumps the ball off to the backs at a far higher rate than the Bills and Allen do. Our RB's need to be combing for at least 110+ receptions. Including Gilliam they only had 79 receptions in 16 games.

You may be correct about Hockenson in tier 2 now. Last year was his breakout year. But you are low balling Goedert. Goedert has averaged both more yards per game and higher catch percentages than Hockenson in each of the last two seasons.

The two greatest tight ends ever? Come on, let's be fair to Knox. When I see Knox run routes compared to Kelce it is pretty clear to see who the more fluid route runner is. Let's set reasonable expectations. As others have already mentioned in this thread, it's a myth that that Knox was kept in to block more or that he wasn't schemed open. For whatever reason, Allen did not throw to him much when he was open. I've already stated that it is disingenuous to put that all on Dorsey. Some of it needs to fall on Allen.

Was there ever an explanation on the first INT in the first Jets game? That one still has me baffled. Davis has been at least Edmunds equal as whipping boy since around mid-season last year. Top two whipping boys currently are Davis and Dorsey.

Oh really? Both games? Against the Dolphins, 25 first downs, 5.9 yards per play and 34 points scored while turning the ball over 3 times. None of which should be attributed to Dorsey. Losing the turnover battle 3-2. And Knox dropped a gimmie TD that would have put the Bills at 38 points.

Asking if Knox can play at Kelce or Gronk level is not fair to Knox. Let's slow our roll before asking if he can play at the level of probably the two greatest tight ends to ever play. TE is an interesting position. Everyone wants to find an elite tight end for obvious reasons. When you have a tight end at the level of a Gronk or Kelce it makes your offense nearly unstoppable. Problem is, in any given year there is typically only one of those guys out of 32 starting tight ends in the league. As great a tight end as George Kittle is, I'd say Kelce is an entire tier better than Kittle. And Kittle is really good. I haven't really done a deep dive into tight end tiers luck people like to tier QB's, but off the top of my head I would probably say you have Kelce in a tier by himself, and really, he should be like two tiers ahead of the next tier. Then you probably have a tier with Kittle, Andrews and Goedert. Then you have a tier with probably 8-10 guys making up the third tier of tight ends from 5-14. That is basically where Knox is. We are hoping he can get to tier 2. Forget about tier 1.