Sammy Watkins' Rib

Explain to me how five years of stats for each generation is cherry picking. I already said that the single year I pointed out, was not an anomaly for the other four years. with every decade that goes by and really every season, the game becomes that much more of a passing league. Whether it’s inch by inch or leaps and bounds. we shouldn’t be surprised at all, that when you take a 20 year span between seasons that we see massive differences in the average yards and efficiency put up. as others have already mentioned, Allen should be compared to his peers. And by that metric loan, he is outstanding. Josh Allen stats are largely better than Peyton Manning stats in each players first five seasons. And really that should be expected.

And 2007 was still FIVE YEARS AFTER Peyton's 5th season in 2002. I have no idea why you are fighting this losing battle. You might as well as say Joe Montana and Peyton Manning (20 year spread between rookie seasons) played in the same era if you are going to say Allen and Peyton (21 year spread between rookie seasons) played in the same era. 2002 - (1) QB had a passer rating above 100 2022 - (6) QB's had a passer rating above 100 And the above are not anomalies for those eras. In Peyton's first five seasons from '98 to '02, there were three seasons where only one QB posted a 100+ passer rating. And in Allen's first five seasons, this past season was actually the fewest number of QB's to post 100+ ratings. The other four seasons saw, 8, 9, 9 and 10 QB's post ratings above 100. Furthermore, 2002 - (4) QB's had a passer rating above 90 2022- (18) QB's had a passer rating above 90 In the late 90's / early 2000's you were an elite QB is your rating was above 90. Today, you could be a bottom half of the league QB with a 90 rating.

Buffalo_Stampede was referring to Diggs not Allen.

agreed. but coach screwed it up with his “very concerned” answer to the reporters question in that press conference.

All that matters is how he compares to his peers. And Allen compares very favorably. The only peer QB one could say is better is Mahomes. The only one that might be better is Burrow. So he is somewhere around number 2-3 amongst his peers. That is what you want in your franchise QB. Peyton was a turnover machine compared to some of his peers that had overlapping careers like Brady and Rodgers. But Peyton was also consistently top 3 amongst his peers for the majority of his career. I hope Allen can stay top three. Their is a chance he could become Big Ben or Phillip Rivers as more good QB’s and teams come into maturity but Big Ben was still usually top 5-6 and won two super bowls while going to three. The absolute worst outcome for Allen would be him following the trajectory of Phillip Rivers. But right now Herbert probably has to worry the most about not becoming the next Rivers.

That makes sense. so they could have in theory mugged the hell out of at least one chief player each play it sounds like according to this rule and not been penalized. just not two or more.

you don’t have to win or even get to the Super Bowl though. But the bar is set at getting to the conference championship game at a decent rate. Bills have failed to achieve that two years in a row while having Super Bowl caliber expectations. Cheifs have made it every year since Mahomes became the starter. bengals have made it two straight years. Bills haven’t been in two straight years and are trending backwards.

I don’t fully fault the offense in the Ravens playoff game. The winds were definitely something that was affecting both offenses that night. Tuck who never misses kicks inside 45 yards missed two both around 40yards. Gimmie kicks for him. That is how we know wind was a big factor that night.

which game was this last year?

100% agree. McDemott failed to realize that was the most critical play / call of his coaching career so far. He should have had 100% control of what was going on. It’s okay to use assistant coaches but he needed to have oversight of the entire operation on that sequence. waste 7 seconds on one penalty? That is a bit too optimistic. They completed two plays in 10 seconds. I agree they should have held on both plays or at least the first. Don’t recall if there is an additional penalty for the second consecutive holding. Either way the touchback was rendered useless strategy because they decided not to hold on the next two plays.

they never had Super Bowl expectations in any of theirs seasons though either. the level of postseason failure is about the same if we measure it with the weight of expectations.

I think Bengals fans were definitely saying that at the tail end of the Andy Dalton / Marvin Lewis era.

Recency bias in the OP. In three of the Bills last four playoff games the offense has scored 34, 36 and 47 points. They have totaled 423, 422 and 482 yards. Of the three games their worst offensive performance was against Miami where DESPITE three turnovers and a Knox dropped TD in the end zone they still scored 34 and totaled 423 yards. You know you have a high powered offense when you still put up numbers like that with all the miscues. It just so happens that the fourth game, is the most recent playoff game and probably the worst offense performance by the Bills since the 3 point showing against the Jags in 2017.

Simply going off of memory and games played it appears Parker has a lot of injuries and is hardly reliable. Don't love signing a 30 year old receiver to that kind of extension. Didn't know he's also nearly a year older than Diggs. If the Bills give Gabe a similar extension to be our #3 targeted pass catcher at least he will only be 25 going into the 2024 season.

lol. Do I remember a random playoff game from like 15 years ago? of course not. I’m just responding to your statement that 13 points given up in a half is good. It’s far closer to average than good.

that’s not good though. That’s like average.

I guess I didn’t clarify. With the same team. Doesn’t do the bills any good if McDermott wins in year 10 with some other team. all your other points I agree with. But there’s still the caveat that for a myriad of different reasons, NFL head coaches simply haven’t won Super Bowls betond year five with the same team, same quarterback. I have to credit @Chaos for giving us the data on this in one of his threads earlier in the off-season. we all know there are a number of reasons why McDermott should likely stick around for years 6, 7 and even 8 with Allen regardless of any Super Bowl victory or not. he’ll either go down as the one coach to break the historical trend that goes back to like the early 70s. Or he’ll go down as “exhibit A” in as to why the trend continues.

True. Which is likely why unless the bottom totally falls out, McDermott will likely be fired at the conclusion of the 2024 season at the earliest. If he is fired at all.

It appears McDermott is in a critical year. Even on borrowed time. Coaches don't win their first super bowl after year 5 when they have a Bonafide franchise QB. Allen and McDermott just completed year 5 together. Dungy hit the jack pot in year 5. McDermott did not.

I think you have it backwards. Bills are the Peyton Manning Colts. Bengals, who have already been to a Super Bowl with a QB in his second season (just like Big Ben) and a AFC Championship game appearance in the next season, are Big Ben's Steelers. The Big Ben Steelers had more post season success than the Peyton Manning Colts. 3 appearance and two rings to 2 appearances and one ring. As the OP mentioned, we are playing the longevity game. Just get to the dance every year and eventually the ball will bounce our way and we will win one title. Question is, will that be this year, next year or 5+ years down the road? As long as we are making the dance every year we have a legit shot.

Nice topic OP. Another similarity so far anyway is the dominance of KC today is similar to the dominance of New England during the Peyton and Dungy years. 2023 Bills = Mid 2000 Colts 2023 Bengals = Mid 2000 Steelers 2023 Chiefs = Mid 2000 Patriots

Is MAFIA already taken?

I see 2024 season being their last one if they continue to regress. But if they can just be competitive in the divisional round again, or better yet advance to the conference championship game, they’ll be sticking around for a long while. their job security doesn’t depend on winning a Super Bowl but they can’t keep going backwards in the postseason.

Guys, head coaches and GM’s are NEVER fired the season after receiving a lengthy extension. https://www.azcardinals.com/news/steve-keim-kliff-kingsbury-receive-contract-extensions

Totally forgot that Fitz played during the tail end of the red helmet period.