Sammy Watkins' Rib

To my surprise as well, the offense under Dorsey targeted the RB's a lot more than any of the previous offenses under Daboll.

Longer time per drive would actually be a plus for the 2022 offense, right? Other than that, everything else looks like a small to tiny step back from '21. You may have already covered it, but the difference in the Jets defense the Bills faced in '21 vs. '22 was night and day. I think the Jets D was dead last in '21 and top 5 in 2022. That alone may have been the reason the numbers took a step back.

Good question. Here are some raw numbers I looked up. The percentage in parentheses is the share percentage that went to the backs out of total number of targets divvied out by the offense. Pretty much every team below was a top 10 offense (and top 5 in many cases) in both points and yards with a couple of exceptions (2019 Bills and 2022 Packers. And the 2021 Bengals were top 10 in points but not yards and same for the 2020 Saints and 2014 Patriots). Some things to note: -Perhaps no team has been more consistent than the Chiefs. And they have maybe found that sweet spot of 18% targets to the backs. -Arguably the two most dominant and consistent offenses of the last decade not including the Chiefs, are the Patriots and Saints. Both targeted the RB's far above average compared to the other teams listed here. -The Eagles and Rams have had success in four different seasons with four different QB's and targeting the RB's well below 20% of target share in each season. Even well below 18% in 3 out of the 4 seasons. They have found a slightly different recipe for success. - The Bills actually noticeably increased their target share to the backs last year at 20%. Mixed results. They had their best offensive finish since 2020 in terms of rankings. But their best offensive year to date saw the lowest target share to the Rb's at only 14%. 2022 Bills 111 targets (20%) 2021 Bills 96 targets (15%) 2020 Bills 78 targets (14%) 2019 Bills 80 targets (16%) 2022 Chiefs 112 targets (18%) Super Bowl 2021 Chiefs 112 targets (18%) 2020 Chiefs 111 targets (18%) Super Bowl 2019 Chiefs 112 targets (20%) Super Bowl 2018 Chiefs 102 targets (18%) 2022 Packers 116 targets (21%) 2021 Packers 106 targets (19%) 2020 Packers 115 targets (23%) 2022 Bengals 133 targets (22%) 2021 Bengals 97 targets (18%) Super Bowl 2022 49ers 110 targets ( 21%) 2019 49ers 103 targets (22%) Super Bowl 2022 Eagles 61 targets (12%) Super Bowl 2017 Eagles 75 targets (14%) Super Bowl 2021 Rams 76 targets (13%) Super Bowl 2018 Rams 97 targets (18%) Super Bowl 2020 Saints 137 targets (27%) 2019 Saints 154 targets (28%) 2018 Saints 144 targets (28%) 2017 Saints 179 targets (34%) 2018 Patriots 172 targets (31%) Super Bowl 2017 Patriots 158 targets (27%) Super Bowl 2016 Patriots 128 targets (23%) Super Bowl 2015 Patriots 143 targets (23%) 2014 Patriots 108 targets (18%) Super Bowl Looking at the numbers above I would probably like to be in that 18% range at minimum. Bills were on the low end of the spectrum up until this past season.

Getting production at the RB position in the passing game should be a matter of just throwing the ball to whoever is out there. It's much more plug and play at that position. Hines, Cook and Singletary all could have contributed a lot more in that regard if we just targeted them more. I agree with the slot, the guys actually have to be capable and learn the position. But really shouldn't be any excuses to not get more out of the RB group in the passing game.

I'll disagree here. No idea how much his production per target would increase with a decrease in targets. But when you are not forcing the issue to a receiver and rather hitting them on more open targets or greater separation targets their efficiency should increase.

I also said Davis needs a decreased target share. You must have missed hat in my post? The targets taken away from Davis should be redistributed to the slot and RB’s and thereby increasing overall efficiency. And as I also mentioned I would suspect Davis’ production per target would increase with fewer targets. Basically we would increase the efficiency of the offense on both ends. The deeper and longer routes become more efficient and the shorter more efficient routes become more frequent. Also, Davis fills a role in this offense. You can’t hav an efficient offense without a deep threat longer route running receiver. Even if those are lower completion percentage plays you need to have them as part of the offense and a balanced attack.

Right. Because he imploded under pressure in the 2021 postseason when he had the highest passer rating of all time for a playoff. And he's shown an inability to win games last year in the clutch when he only led the Bills to a 4-3 record in such games in the regular season. Mahomes was 2-2 in the regular season in similar chances.

Yep. If the goal is to make the offense more efficient, is there a more efficient play than dumping a ball off to the RB in the flat or a short curl for a gain of 7 yards? A pass that has like a 90% completion rate.

I'm pretty high on McVay. I like him a lot more than Sean Payton. McVay instantly made Goff look like a top 5 QB for a couple seasons. He's shown he can create a balanced attack when he had Gurley in his prime. He trades for Stafford and they instantly win a Super Bowl with a new QB. Even winning that game last year against the Raiders with Baker Mayfield being on the team for 24hrs was good work.

Haven't both McVay and Shanahan been the primary play callers for the Rams and 49ers for the majority of the last several seasons? They have both had a lot of success.

100% agree. Our problems were largely the decrease in slot production and our continued dis-interest in getting the RB's involved in the passing game. I wouldn't even blame it on lack of production from the TE position because historically there are very few elite TE's and very few teams getting great productiuon from the position. That said, with Kincaid now on the team and Knox being at worst a top 15 TE and even top 5 by one or two metrics, we should be getting better production this year. But yeah, Gabe isn't the problem. His target share was the issue. I suspect with a decreased target share but remaining one of our two starting outside receivers he will have much better production per target.

I expect it to be a far tougher battle myself. The division is far from guaranteed and so by default playoffs are not a guarantee either. Haven't really felt that way since the 2019 season.

So, the Bills offense was 4-3 in closing out close games last year. That's actually not too bad. But 5-2 would have netted them the 1 seed and that is the problem. In the regular season I think the Chiefs were 2-2 in such games. Wins against the Chargers (game 2) and Texans and losses to the Colts and Bengals. I'm not sure the Bills actually have a mental problem here on the offensive side of the ball in these late game situations. But something to keep an eye on for next year.

Good point. Those three losses do stand out. Could have been worse though. They did have some success if I recall correctly. Off the top of my head the offense was very good in late game pressure moments against the Chiefs, Dolphins (game 2) and I think Ravens last season. That is batting .500 in those circumstances which would be the bare minimum you would want out of the offense.

great point about the Jets D. Playing a #4 defense twice vs the #32 defense twice is a huge difference.

Why did you expect him to make an overhaul and fix things that were not broken? That would have been the exact opposite of what he should have tried in his first year. year two would be a year to make more noticeable tweaks if any are needed.

same number, wrong Henry. 😁

No idea who Booker Edgerson is, but I take it that he was better than Terrence McGee? McGee was another favorite of mine.

I love Fred, so I’m happy with the list, but Nate Clements probably at least has an argument for number 22.

The comparison isn't great. Even running ability, Josh has a lot more in his arsenal. Cam was more of a straight-line power and speed guy. Allen has that plus some of the wiggle and agility that guys like Lamar and Mahomes have. He's a better runner than Cam. And we haven't even gotten to the passing yet. Cam's best season, 2015 was a total outlier from all of his other seasons. Correct, he was still on a HOF trajectory at that point which was his 5th year. But Allen has been far more consistent with the same 2015 highs as Cam. Any of Allen's 2020, 2021 or 2022 seasons are very much on the level of Cam's 2015 season. Essentially, Allen has consistently matched Cam's best season three times whereas Cam never came close to matching his own best season. If you look at each players first 5 years in the league their overall numbers are pretty similar but Allen still has a pretty big advantage in total TD's. He has 17 more than Cam in two less games played. But if you take Newton's three best seasons and compare them to Allen's three best seasons, Allen really separates himself. The TD advantage climbs to 20 and the yardage advantage jumps to around 2,000 yards. But more important in the comparison of the two is the trends within each players first 5 seasons. Allen has been on an upward trajectory since his rookie season. He has plateaued at a high level in years 3, 4 and 5. Meanwhile, Newtons best and second-best years had a large discrepancy. His second-best year was arguably his rookie year. Newton never had an upward trajectory with a sustained plateau.

Allen is not going anywhere until he decides to retire and McDermott winning a Super Bowl with another team doesn't help the Bills any so that actually makes a ton of sense. Will be interesting to see what happens with Taylor and Burrow. They have two years to win before the end of year number 5. You would think between Allen and McDermott and Burrow and Taylor one of them will snap the 5+year streak.

It’s particular important because it tells us owners have a short leash on HC’s once the team has a franchise QB. That’s the history. That’s why the stat exists. If more franchises were run like Philly when Reid was there and given 14 seasons with 10 consecutive seasons with McMabb as the starting QB (despite no Super Bowl victory anyway) we would likely have a handful of HC/QB combos with rings well past season 5 together. But Reid and McNabb were a very rare combo that stayed together for a long time. And still they never got their ring. Elway and Dan Reeves may have won a ring together eventually if they were together for all of Elway’s 16 seasons. As it was, they lasted 10 seasons together just like McNabb and Reid. I think McDermott and Allen are likely to follow the Reeves and Reid model and last 10 seasons together even without a ring. But staying together that long is often the exception. Would be hard to think McDermott’s seat would not be on fire come season 8 and 9. The key will be staying competitive in the postseason. Got to get back to a conference championship game again in at least one of the next three seasons I think to keep his seat cool. The causation is simply the tendency for owners to become impatient. I agree, simply year to year the Bills or any other team have as good a chance to win the Super Bowl as any other year. What increases as the years go by is the chance the owner / GM pulls the plug. Extreme patience seems to be about 10 years and even in those rare examples the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl was unsuccessful.

Good post. The historical data piling up against McD is alarming. The thing is, it is 100% team owner influenced. I do believe McD has landed in the perfect spot where he will get the Andy Reid Philly Eagles treatment in that he will be given a very long leash to try and get over the hump. Reid never did with Philly but there is no denying he is a great coach and had Reid stayed I am willing to bet they eventually would have won a Super Bowl with him in Philly. Reid was in Philly for 14 seasons. So we might have another 7 years of McDermott, Super Bowl or no Super Bowl. But yes, the vast majority of coaches will be fired if they don't win a Super Bowl within their first 5-10 years with a team. That's just the owner's impatience. I THINK Peugla will have extreme patience, but you never know. Of course, a consecutive season missing the playoffs would really change everything. I wonder how long the average non super bowl winning head coaches' career with one team is? Probably something like 2.8 years.

Knox also dropped a TD costing the team 4 points.

On the flip side, the cost to advertise in the paper has probably never been lower.