Sammy Watkins' Rib

At the same time I can’t imagine any scenario where the Bills lose by more than 2 scores down in Miami. Miami is good, they can beat us if they bring their A game. The difference is they are incapable of running away with a game against us.

Literally, figuratively or both?

Sure. Sets up 3rd and 2 probably.

Buffalo 33 Miami 16

Their message board is so bad it it's actually a bit comical. But at the same time sad.

The Jets have given the Bills fits dating back to both games last year. Even if Allen had zero turnovers in that game the Bills are probably looking at a 20 to 13 type of low scoring and low offensive output type of win. It's just a personnel and match up thing that favors the Jets D over the Bills O. Meanwhile, the Bills offense has owned the Dolphins defense in three straight games dating back to last year. Against the Dolphins, the Bills have demonstrated that they can turn the ball over three times and still score 34 points and rack up 450 yards of offense. Sure, the Dolphins have superior talent than the Pats. But can you say they have superior talent across the board compared to the Bills? I don't think so. And even with that large talent gap over the Pats the Dolphins won by one score and were possibly a fat man gaining an extra half yard away from going into OT against the Pats.

True. But remember Tua getting the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds or whatever is just an average. Expect Tua to get crushed multiple times this week on his drop backs that are 3+ seconds. It will be a wakeup call for a QB who basically hasn't taken a real hit through three games.

I like how the very next post following the OP is totally realistic and pretty much what a normal fan of either team would agree with. This should be a one score game for either side.

The last three games against the Jets the Bills offense has been well below average. That really wasn't a surprise. Expect a well below average offensive output again when we play the Jets later this season at home. The last three games against the Dolphins the Bills offense has moved the ball with ease. Last three games against the Dolphins: Record 2-1 Game 1: 500 yards 31 first downs 19 points 1 Turnover Game 2: 450 yards 29 first downs 32 points 1 Turnover Game 3: 425 yards 25 first downs 34 points 3 Turnovers Last three games against the Jets: Record 1-2 Game 1: 320 yards 19 first downs 17 points 2 Turnovers Game 2: 232 yards 14 first downs 20 points 0 Turnovers Game 3: 315 yards 19 first downs 16 points 4 Turnovers It's been a night and day difference in offensive output going against the Dolphins defense vs. the Jets defense. Haha! I was going to say Chiefs Planet is the absolute worst of humanity.

LOL. Yeah people have forgotten about Allen but they just love Joe Burrow still? He's really lighting it up this year. His regular season play is now matching his below average postseason averages. No QB has benefited more in recent years than Burrow has with a defense that has played its best football at the right time of the year.

Gabe is fine if we get a more consistently targeted #2 receiver. The long-term plan is for that player to be Dalton Kincaid. Would be great if Kincaid could become that heavily targeted receiver this year but he's going to have to eventually start running routes deeper than 3 yards down the field. So far this year, Gabe's target shar percentage is actually down 3% year over year. I think that is good. We want the offense to target Gabe at the right times. However, Diggs target share is up 2% year over year. Diggs is a great player but I'm not sure we need him getting nearly 1 out of every 3 targets. Ultimately what the offense needs is for the TE's to average more than 6.5 ypr. Both Knox and Kincaid have 12 targets each on the season which i think is good number to be at but 6.5 ypr is dreadful. Got to get that up at least into the 8.5 range. We could have. But the Bills have invested in Kincaid. He showed well in the preseason. So far in the regular season he has showed good hands. But they have him running 3-5 yard routes.

Dolphins are going to try and run it all over us first and foremost. Run D continues to be our weakness. This year they have looked really good for stretches but they still consistently give up huge chunk plays in the running game.

Great point. As a first year official that is exactly how they are coaching us up in the youth and high school ranks. I would imagine a tiny bit of that trickles up into the NFL.

The logic is sound. It’s about the bills playing a top five team this weekend. To this point neither to the chiefs or bills have played a top five team. The bills can jump the Chiefs and the dolphins this weekend.

Will we get the Miami that scored 24 @ NE or the Miami that scored 70 vs. Denver? I look at this game as basically zero percent chance the Bills could lose by more than a TD but about a 10% chance the Bills could really put it on Miami and win by 2+ scores. The goal should be to hold Miami well under 30 points just as NE did. The difference is our offense is very much capable of putting up 30+ if needed. The last three between these teams have been decided by 2, 3 and 3 points. Bills winning 2 of the last three. Bills -3 see like a perfect line.

Yep. And the Bills are favored by 3 this Sunday over the team that most people in the sports world have as the "best team in the league" and that team is coming off a 70 point performance. We will know soon enough which team is the best in the league. Bills or Dolphins. Chiefs have the Jets and 49ers have the Cardinals. Won't learn anything good about either of those two contenders.

good assessment. I think what also clear is that whoever wins the game this Sunday in Orchard Park will be the clear number one team in the league.

I can’t really see the bills being blown out to be honest. As great as the Dolphins are, there is a slim chance we could blow them out if Tua somehow has a game like he did last year against the chargers. Or if he gets knocked out, of course. But even then, with Mike White being the back up their offense should be OK.

Denver: Where people now go to play themselves out of the HOF.

This. I don't know if we will beat Miami but it will be a close game just like the last three have all been 3 point margins of victory or less. Bills have a significantly better offense than the last two teams Miami has faced. We can give up over 30 and still beat Miami. But if New England can hold Miami to less than 30 than that should definitely be our goal as well.

Right. I hope OP at least makes it back for the parade.

I'd have this one as high probability upset loss if we hadn't already blown the game week 1 to the Jets. But since we loss week 1 I am more confident the Bills pull this one out. I don't think we blow them out, but Bills win by somewhere between 7 and 14 points.

It's such a long season I feel like it is hard to say if the Bills will be peaking at the right time or not. It's really a grind now with the 17 games and only one playoff bye. And we know eventually they are going to go to 18 games withing the next 10 years most likely.

I got three adds in the first 5 minutes and stopped watching.

I agree that toughness is one factor. But Allen had the ability to turn defensive players around, break their ankles with Mike moves and hurdle them. For his size Allen is incredibly agile.