Sammy Watkins' Rib

That was a text book defenseless player hit on Kincaid too. Guess the hit wasn’t viscous enough but the defender leads with his shoulder to the head area rather than try and make a wrap up tackle

MVP! MVP! MVP!

Looks to be very close to defensive PI as well. But I'm sure at live speed it looks pretty bang, bang. But in the still you can see the offensive player is really struggling to even reach back and grab the ball with the defender appearing to be face guarding. Face guarding is perfectly fine as long as you don't make contact with the offensive player. But there appears to maybe be some early contact there.

I have multiple ML parlays going today that consist of a mix of Eagles, Texans, Steelers and Broncos winning. We can be assured at least one of these four teams will lose. I don't have a stat head subscription anymore so I can't be 100% certain but I am close to certain that Allen already holds the record for consecutive 40+ TD seasons at 3. He's on pace for this 4th this year as well.

If there was possession to make it a legal catch it would be nearly impossible for it to be a fumble. The player would almost have to be down by contact with the ground. In high school you don't not have to be down after contact with a defensive player. Any part of the body excluding feet and hands would be down. Again, would have to see the play but more than likely some other part of the body besides just the hands holding the ball is also down.

Without seeing the actual play, it sounds like an interception to me. There doesn't seem to be a time element at all for a completed catch and down by contact with ground. With no element of time and the ball never touching the ground I would rule as an interception.

One of my concerns about Ed is the injuries he has had these last two seasons. Only missed one game this year but boy was it a big one to miss. We likely beat the Patriots if he plays. If he goes down with another injury this year I will really start to be concerned.

That probably requires a coaching change at the top. 🍺

Haha. Tell me about it. And I'd like to think it makes us better humans for putting in that work but I think I would be lying to ourselves. Appreciate the work though. 🍺 You make some good points with the Texans WC game. Keep in mind the Texans had to go 2/2 on two point conversions against our bed wetting defense to score 19 points in one half of football and force OT. I had a typo for the Bills score in the Miami game too. It was 34 points scored by the offense, not 31. Yeah it would have been nice to put a 40 burger on them without the INT's or even maybe a 50 burger if Knox catches the TD. We had to sweat it out but at the end of the day the offensive output was too much for Miami to overcome.

That's my argument? No, I've clearly defined 3 out of 8 games where the offense was bad and/or underperformed the defense. The offense simply wasn't good enough in those games. The Bills are 1-2 in those three games. My argument is that the defense has been bad/underperformed the offense in 5 out of the 8 playoff games. That's my argument, that's it. If we want to get to the super bowl, let alone win one we are going to have to start having better performances in the postseason from the defense. Three good performances out of every eight isn't likely to get us to the Super Bowl. Unless we catch fire and all three come in a single postseason.

I'm not going to lie. I don't know how any of those expected points are calculated or what they mean. Unless I am reading incorrectly, it looks like the only one it disagrees with me on is the Dolphins WC game? Sorry, I have hard time penalizing an offense that scores 34 points despite turning the ball over 3 times. Yeah, they should have put up a 40 burger easily but at the end of the day they scored 34. It would be like me not calling the Patriots WC game a wash because the defense wasn't perfect like the offense was.

Only push back you would get from me here is if you are talking career or this season. We always have to define the timeline we are talking about. If we are talking career, I agree with you. If we are talking this season, Josh absolutely is in Mahomes class. I suspect you are talking career and not this season. But when you say "he just isn't right now", what is right now? Because that does sound like this season.

Question 1? Sure it would be great if they balled out in both. How about the defense not showing up in either game though? I mean come on defense. Question2? No. I don't disagree at all. But that is literally the only game the defensive performance outweighed the offense. Let's go through them one by one in chronological order: 2019 Texans WC: Wash. Both were good in the first half. Both sucked in the second half. Pretty clear here, I think. No arguments? 2020 Colts WC: Offense outperformed the defense. I know you are going to try and explain how this wasn't the case. I'll let you form the first argument on this one and see if it's enough to change my mind. Best case scenario for the defense on this one is that it is a wash, but I really think it leans noticeably to the offense outperforming the defense. Ravens Divisional: Defense outperforms the offense. No argument from me here. Chiefs Conference Championship: Offense outperforms the defense. Okay, I'll go first on this one. Everyone probably thinks the Divisional game the following year was the Bills defenses worst postseason performance to date in the Allen era. Probably because of 13 seconds and all. But they would be incorrect IMO. In the conference championship game the Bills defense surrendered 38 points with half a quarter to go in the game still. In the divisional round the following year the defense would at least hold the Chiefs to 26 points before wetting the bed with under 2 minutes left in the game to go on to give up 2 TD's and a FG to close out the game. What about the offense? Well, they started the game with scoring drives on their first two possessions to take a 9-0 lead. Remember, they only managed 17 points in the regular season game that year against the same Chiefs defense playing at home. So, in terms of showing up they were already over halfway there through one quarter of play. Then the Bills defense on the next three Chiefs possessions gave up TD, TD, TD, to give up 21 points in the first half. They only gave up 26 total in the regular season game. The Bills offense would add on a FG to end the half to net 12 points for the first half. Again, only 17 points scored total by the Bills offense in the regular season game. They are well on their way to surpassing that total. They just need the defense to keep it close to their regular season performance and the Bills can have a shot to win the game in the 4th quarter. Instead, they would give up another 10 points in the third and another 7 in the 4th. The Bills final TD comes with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter to give them 21 points for the game. Surpassing their regular season total. It's only garbage time at this point because the Bills defense failed in keeping the Chiefs to under 30 points when they held them to 26 in the regular season match up. They have given up 38 on the scoreboard to this point. Bills would tack on another FG. 2021: Patriots WC: Wash. Giving up 17 to the offenses first ever perfect game maybe doesn't seem like an actual wash or a disservice to the offense. But the bottom line is the defense only gave up 3 points in the first half. That's going to win a lot of games in the postseason unless you have something weird like the Texans WC game. They surrendered two TD's in the second half but at that point you are playing prevent defense because both units did what they were supposed to do. Chiefs Divisional: Offense outperforms the defense. Don't think we need much more explanation on this one. 2022: Dolphins WC: Wash. The offense had a dominant game here. They just had too many turnovers including a costly one. But still, 3 turnovers and a dropped TD in the end zone by Knox and they still managed to score 31 points? Yikes. Defense, you don't want to give up 24 points to a third string QB at home. But the offense put the defense in some bad positions. And no matter the QB, the Dolphins still have explosive play makers. Bengals Divisional: Wash. The defense gives up TD, TD to start the game. The offense goes punt, punt to start the game. And gets their first TD on their 3rd possession. Half time score is 17-7. Giving up 34 points in a game is bad. Only scoring 14 points in a game is also very bad. Neither unit was good. We end up with a one score game at 17-10 halfway through the third quarter. Hey, the Bills defense is doing pretty good right? Bengals still only have 17 points. Well, not really, the Bengals still only have 17 points because the Bills offense started with the ball in the second half and just had a 7+ minute FG drive. Once the Bengals do finally get the ball in the second half, that well rested Bills defense (they probably haven't been on the field in close to an hour) would promptly give up 10 points on the Bengals first two second half possessions. Simply put neither unit was good enough in this game. Total team loss. My final tally: Bad Washes -2 (Texans and Bengals) Good Washes- 2 (Patriots and Dolphins) Defense better- 1 (Ravens) Offense better- 3 (Cheifs x2 and Colts)

I’m not hiding anything by posting averages. If you want to post the individual games feel free. They will show the same story. The point is they played really bad in the playoffs when we needed them to step up or at least play to their regular season level. Even just one out of the two games would have been nice. the defense was very good in all three regular season meetings. Again, my point overall in this argument in the defense failing miserably in the postseason compared to their regular season performance. That’s not debatable right? even if we say the offense also did not live up to their regular season billing in these two postseason games, at the end of the day they matched or scored more points in all but one of the regular season games. got to lay majority of blame on the defense in both these games. go ahead post the 5 individual games. Do you think it will tell a different story?

Bills vs. Chiefs in the Regular season (3 games since 2020): Bills 24ppg (throwing out the TD scored on the Hyde pick six in the 2021 regular season game) Chiefs offense 22ppg Bills vs. Chiefs postseason (two games): Bills offense 30ppg Chiefs offense 40ppg I’m sorry but it is hard for me to pin these two postseason exits equally on the offense and defense. Again, the Bengals defense posted a second half shutout of the Chiefs offense to ultimately advance to the Super Bowl that year. The Bills defense played 18ppg worse than their regular season play.

Let's also consider the following: Bills vs. Chiefs in the Regular season (3 games since 2020): Bills 24ppg (throwing out the TD scored on the Hyde pick six in the 2021 regular season game) Chiefs offense 22ppg Bills vs. Chiefs postseason (two games): Bills offense 30ppg Chiefs offense 40ppg It's glaringly obvious that one unit is not coming close to performing at their regular season standard against the Chiefs. The Bills offense is scoring 6ppg more in the postseason than compared to regular season. The Bills defense is given up 18 ppg more in the post season than the regular season. Bengals defense shut the vaunted KC offense out for an entire half. That's in large part how the Bengals made the Super Bowl that year.

If we are grading Allen and the offenses AFC Championship game against the Chiefs as horrible (sorry just don’t see it anywhere near horrible) that’s fine as long as you grade the defense a magnitude or two worse. There is no question in my eyes the defense was quite a bit worse in that game.

How has the defense been in all the games the Bills were eliminated in with Allen as QB? That’s right atrocious in every one. The bills offense was bad in two out of the four I’ll give you that. But the defense has been somewhere between bad and downright terrible in all four. Massive stop to end the Colts game? That’s some rose colored glasses for sure. That may have been the one good defensive play they made all day in that game. Colts just ran out of time too didn’t they on the final drive? Also consider he offenses average starting field position in the first half of that game was like their own 8 yard line. Allen and the offense did everything they could in that game to keep the Bills in it and then pull out the win. They played well against the Pats in a game where the offense pitched a perfect game. Great, really needed them to step up in that one. The only game I can really credit to them over the offense is the Ravens game. That was also a weird game with 20+ mph winds. So both offenses were struggling. We don’t see Justin Tucker miss two 40 yard FG’s ever. We know the wind was a huge factor in how that game played out. The Texans elimination game of course was a tale of two half’s for both sides of the ball. So Texans and Bengals elimination games the offense was bad. Texans, Bengals and both Chiefs game the defense was somewhere between bad and terrible.

Because the Bills defense craps the bed in the playoffs every year. Routinely playing far below their regular's season standard of play. Exact opposite of the Bengals defense performing better in the playoffs compared to their regular season performances. If the defenses performed at their regular season level in the postseason, they would have made a Super Bowl appearance in one of these last three seasons. With respect to Mahomes weapons, it could be that teams have now figured out how to defend KC without Hill. Having a season + now to gameplan for it. Even bigger than that though, I suspect Kelce has declined and lost a step or two. The dude is getting old now for NFL TE/WR standards.

Not surprised. He does have a lot of variance. As mentioned he was half the QB he is today, in his first two years in the league. Would be interested in if the numbers are better, worse or the same since 2020 compared to his career. So you are just going to die on that mole hill that removing Allen’s three best games somehow shows something meaningful compared to the other QB’s having their three best games removed? They all show huge drop offs when that is done.

How about Tua? 3 best games: 10 TD's 1 INT, 345 ypg 71 % All other games: 11 TD's 7 INT's 271 ypg 69% How about Dak? 3 best games: 11 TD's 2 INT's 360 YPG 73% All other games: 8 TD's 4 INT's 217 YPG 69% Crazy yardage differential with Dak See how ridiculous it is to take away a QB's 3 best games? Do it for every QB and you basically get the same result I am sure. Allen is no different than the other QB's in that regard. So it's not just about Mahomes having a down year this year. Allen's career losses vs Mahomes and Burrow. That's interesting. Maybe it is because he is forced to shoulder more. Maybe it is something else. But I'd be more interested in the breakdown of his career losses since 2020. We all know Allen was half the QB he is today and became since 2020. His rookie year, throwing the ball to guys out of the league the following year after his rookie year.

Exactly. It didn't take long at all to run the numbers for Mahomes 3 Best games: 9TD's 1 INT, 977 yds (325ypg) 75% completion Other 7 games: 10 TD's 8 INTs, 1642 yds (234 ypg) 64% completion Basically, the same drop off Allen has. I'm guessing this is the case for most all QB's. Only the one's that are probably having elite 115+ passer rating type seasons will probably not see as significant drop offs.

Is that all that different from most QB's though? Especially this year it seems QB's have great games followed up with below average games. There's a reason why there isn't a single QB this year running away with MVP. Every week people are trying to justify giving the award to Hurts who has struggled this year but is on a great team. Or Mahomes who certainly does not have better numbers than Allen this year either. It's certainly not realistic for Allen to have 30 passing TD's and 3 INT's on the season. Just as it is not realistic to say he'll never have great games so throw those three out and just look at his other 8. I think by (2) he doesn't mean both Jets game, but the second Jets game only.

My ceiling for him is 60 and 6,000. Now that is tough, lol. But that is the kind of talent he has. He gets on hot streaks. From the end of the 2021 season through the start of the 2022 season he was on a 9 game stretch at one point including playoffs where he had something like 30 TD's to 4 turnovers. That has been his ceiling up to this point, but those numbers come close to the 60 and 6,000. We will see if he can reach that ceiling again and maintain for a season. With the extra game now, those will be the new numbers to hit. I think the current record is maybe 55 TD's so one extra game puts a QB very close to 60.

Really? Over Campbell or Demeco Ryans? Can't see that. This year Harbaugh has significantly benefited from playing in the division that ended up having the absolute worst QB play by a mile besides his own healthy Lamar Jackson. Not sure if a coach who ever missed the playoffs has won, but if the Texans somehow don't get in I could still see Ryans winning it. That teams wasn't supposed to win more than 4 games.