Sammy Watkins' Rib

They are undefeated with Deebo though. I believe Deebo was injured in the first half of the Cleveland game (box score shows 1 target and 2 rush attempts all in the first half) and then missed the next two losses to Cincy and Minnesota. There absolutely isn't a top team this year in the AFC. It should be the Dolphins but they have turned into the Bills, minus being able to occasionally beat the good teams. At least the Bills did that from 2020 to 2022. Dolphins are either beating average or bad teams by 4 TD's or losing to the playoff caliber teams. Their schedule set up nicely for them this year though. That is until their last three games. We will see how they do down the stretch. This all just makes the head scratching losses to the Jets, Patriots and Broncos all the more painful. Just pull out one of those games and the Bills are right there. Win two and we likely still take the division.

I think Dak ends up winning it. He's playing exceptionally well right now. If he can keep it up against some of the quality teams they have down the stretch he will win. Feels like sports media is trying to find reasons not to have to give it to Purdy. That is working against Purdy right now. It also feels like the 49ers are all about Deebo and to a lesser extent McCaffery. Purdy and the 49ers loss all three games Deebo missed. Their only losses on the year. That should be a big determining factor against Purdy for MVP.

Got 2/4

Does anyone else read this part as Hines was hoping to show the injury was somehow caused by a normal football routine workout/conditioning and not the jet ski accident? That would have saved Hines millions right if the injury was shown to be football related and not from a recreational activity.

Not only that but over the last 20 years, if I am not mistaken, exactly three coaches have won multiple super bowls period. Belicheck, Reid and Couphlin. I keep thinking that maybe the Eagles are onto something with how fast they moved off of Pederson.

There have been a lot this year that I thought were both amazing throws and catches. Think in the game last week there were at least two. The TD and throw and catch to Diggs and another one on I think a third down near the right hash to I think Davis.

Not sure how the same question is asked and two different answers result. Even on this second one Allen is like 5th overall after we adjust for games played (minimum 45 to include Dak) throwing out the QB's who have played far less games. And still of the four ahead of Allen; Dak (45), Rodgers (50) and Tua (47) still have a fairly significantly smaller sample size than both Mahomes and Allen at 60 and 61 games respectively.

I'm not sure that is correct Chan. AVG in that spreadsheet is simply YPA, i checked. YPA is different than ANY/A

By the same standard he also has the most TD's in NFL history. And he's pretty consistent with his TD's (and turnovers). It's not case of Allen racking up a couple 5 TD games and then having a streak of 1 TD games in between.

You continue to have odd definitions of "close" and "almost" In one thread you claim 20 turnovers is almost 44 TD's and 96 turnovers is almost 210 TD's despite the larger numbers being over 100% greater than the smaller. numbers. In this thread, 2,141 (Allen) is not even close to 2,251 (Herbert) despite just a 5% difference. Mahomes is third by the way at 2,228.

Same for Mahomes. Same for a lot of QB's this year actually. It's been a pretty big talking point this year that defenses are back more than ever. Hurts, Mahomes, Tua and Allen all have higher INT% this year compared to last year. You are correct though that Allen has had a steady climb in his INT% the last three seasons. His fumbles are way down this year. Only four so far this year through 12 games when he had 13 last year in 16 games. And I don't think that is just a case of him having half the rushing attempts he would on a normal season the last three years. A good majority of Allen's fumbles would come from center/snap exchange, hand offs or pressures behind the line of scrimmage. Those plays still happen every game but he is fumbling the ball less so far.

let’s further expand on this. Because in theory I think it is usually somewhat true. How valuable really are TD’s from a QB inside the 2 yard line? Josh Allen 47 career rushing TD’s 3 or fewer yards - 22 (47%) 10-19 yards out - 12 (26%) 4-9 yards out - 11 (23%) 30 or more - 2 (4%) 20-29 yards out -1 (2%) Jalen Hurts 37 career rushing TD’s 3 or fewer yards out - 25 (68%) 4-9 yards out - 6 (16%) 10-19 yards out - 3 (8%) 20-29 yards our - 3 (8%) There is a massive difference between the typical Jalen Hurts rushing TD and a Josh Allen rushing TD.

I used to think the same but Allen is one of the best QB’s in the league in terms of scoring rushing TD’s from 5 yards out or beyond. A lot of his are in that 5-10 yard spot on the field. Those are not guaranteed TD’s for RB’s in that range. He’s not getting tush pushed into the end zone from 1 yard out very often.

I don’t really think anyone disagrees with the bolded who are the specific posters that disagree?

Sure, but there is more to wins and losses than just turnovers from the QB. As Fire Chans correctly noted, Hurts and the Eagles won because they were a better team than the Bills. Not because Allen had half as many turnovers as Hurts did in the game.

I can only speculate that it probably is. Yes, I would say 44 to 20 vs. 40 to 10 kind of visually pops as a significant difference at least. But then again, 44 is still much greater than 20 right? Just as 40 is much greater than 10? Is either one almost the same? It might just be me but if the numbers were like 30 TD's to 22 TO's, or 200 TD's to 170 TO's, those would be differences I would consider "almost the same". Not 44 to 20. or 210 to 96 Again, the heart of the argument here is in the final line of your OP: We basically have three outliers here. Mahomes and Rodgers on the good end. Lamar on the bad end. And then everyone else jumbled between 2.22 and 2.7. I'm going to make a strong guess that there isn't a meaningful difference there between any of those players jumbled in between Rodgers/ Mahomes at the top and Lamar at the bottom. Then of course there is this. Where ironically the turnover narrative for Allen this year is in full blown crisis mode while he has essentially the same TD:TO rate as Hurts and a higher TD:TO rate than Mahomes and Tua. But it is only Allen that has the turnover crisis. Not the other QB's.

is there even a significant difference between 2.18 and say 2.5? That might be something worth figuring out first. My hunch is that it’s insignificant because the raw data tells us 20 in fact is actually not close to 44 at all. And 210 is significantly greater than 96. Very few quarterbacks in the league have a touchdown to turnover ratio closer to 3 to 1 the majority are closer to 2:1 like Allen. and this year there’s quarterbacks that are considered good with even lower touchdown to turnover ratios than Allen has.

Losing to the Chargers would not be Billsy. that could absolutely happen. spread on that game will probably be less than 4 points. Losing to the pats. Getting swept by the Pats? That is the definition of Billsy. spread on the Pats game should be over a touchdown.

I agree with that, but your original conclusion was wrong. They’re not close in any kind of way. The reason they’re not close despite having the highest turnover rate among quarterbacks is that he also has the highest touchdown rate among quarterbacks. if he was middle of the pack in touchdown rate, or maybe just slightly above average in touchdown rate, but still had the highest turnover rate in the league, we might actually have a problem and something worth discussing.

well then we simply might as well as stop arguing the point as this won’t go anywhere if you continue to think the numbers are some how close. surely you would not say two QB’s, one with 20 TD’s on the season and one with 40TD’s on the season are close in total TD’s right? so what makes 20 and 40 close when we are talking INT’s to TD’s vs. TD’s to TD’s?

I disagree on the Broncos. That team has totally turned it around. Are they great? No. Are they capable of beating any team they play in the playoffs? Most definitely. I think they would handle Miami right now if the two teams played again. And of course they have already beaten both the Bills and Chiefs.

But Mahomes has the stats advantage and the rings advantage over all his peers. So far through his career Mahomes is early 2000's Peyton AND Brady rolled into one. Still have some games to play out still but so far this is by far Mahomes worst year to date. Opening the door for some other QB's to try and narrow the gap on the stats advantage and maybe one will get a ring or maybe it will be Mahomes who still ends up winning in the end.

Honestly you need to chill bro. You won't survive the Josh Allen era at this rate. He's only maybe halfway through his career.

Allen's QBR for the game was like 83. If he doesn't throw the pick, I imagine he has a QBR over 90. What was Hurts QBR for the game? In the 50's? So, one QB to win has to have a QBR over 90. The other QB can win with a QBR in the 50's.

Honestly, through six season and 4 now of being elite. He's largely the same player he has always been. Which is a freaking bad ass the league has never seen. Brett Favre or John Elway on steroids for lack of a better comp. I think you would enjoy the Bills and life more (even more, not saying you are not) if you just accepted Josh for who he is, which for my money, when you take into account the entirety of the body of work of the last four years and the current QB landscape of the league, is the undisputed second best QB in the league behind Mahomes. Probably the only guy who has the skill set to actually maybe someday be better than Mahomes. But if he doesn't, I'm cool with it.