Sammy Watkins' Rib

You missed the bold type I see. you missed the bold type I see

Pretty much every year there is one game I see on the schedule that looks like an L at the beginning of the year. I'm not always right. But for example, Arizona Hail Murray game was one from the 2020 season.

We will win the division if we win out. No way Miami wins both against Dallas and Baltimore. The way I look at this game, is that it was huge in the sense that it basically guarantees that the week 18 game is for the division as long as we handle our business against the Chagers and Patriots. Without today's win we would have needed the Dolphins to lose both their upcoming games. Still likely but not near the guarantee of splitting.

That would be shocking because JA leads the league in TD's.

0.001% chance of that happening. at least 65% chance the Dolphins lose both those games. They should be thrilled to get a split.

Dunne playing chess when all the other teams' writers are playing checkers.

I'll be there so I hope it is a 38-3 blowout. Just hate all the usual football cliche things going into this game. Bills on a two-game win streak, blowout victory, Chargers with their worst lost in franchise history, fired their coach. Bills on a short week. Chargers at home coming off a minnie-bye. Classic let down game.

We've somehow found a way to lose to teams that don't have QB's. See Mac Jones, Patriots and Zach Wilson, Jets.

To be fair, we won't win anything because his defenses have crapped the bed in every single game the Bills have been eliminated in in the playoffs in the JA era. Doesn't really have much to do with how the offense plays. Although this was a game that the weather and Dallas' league worst run defense dictated a heavy dose of the Bills run game. Meanwhile, google how the Bengals defense has OVERPERFORMED their regular season performances every postseason. BUT I'll hold out hope still that the stars will align and the Bills win won with the current coach/QB duo. 2019- outscored 19-0 in the second half including letting the Texans convert 2/2 on 2 point conversions. 2020- give up 38 to the Chiefs 2021- give up 42 to the Chiefs 2022- give up 27 to the Bengals after letting them open the game with two straight TD's which basically has happened the last three times we've played the Bengals.

I've felt this game would be a loss all year. Even more so now given what happened to the Chargers in the last game. You know they are going to want to redeem themselves. Hope by gut instinct feeling is wrong and it's just gas.

I do like Denver quite a bit this week against Detroit. But reality is it is far more likely both Denver and Cincinnati go 3-1 rather than 4-0 i’m thinking it’s an adjustment I should make in my prediction. I believe it ends up being good for the Dolphins bad for the Bengals, and not having much of an impact for the Broncos.

I fear a sizable coaching disadvantage against the jags. I have a decent amount of respect for Pederson.

Doesn't really matter who they have left on their schedule. This year's version of the Chiefs is far more likely to finish the season 3-1 then they are 4-0.

Given who the Chiefs have shown themselves to be over the course of the first 14 weeks of the season, I think it is reasonable to expect the Chiefs to finish 3-1 down the stretch. They have not shown themselves to be a 4-0 quality team of late. On the flipside, I don't love that I have both the Broncos and Bengals finishing 4-0. It is certainly possible each could finish 3-1. Broncos could lose to Detroit this week and Bengals could lose to the Chiefs. I believe such a scenario keeps the Broncos in the playoffs but swaps out the Bengals for the Dolphins. Not having faith that the Chiefs can finish 4-0 I had to give them a loss somewhere. Bengals seemed most likely. But this week against the Pats on the road is a sneaky spot as well.

Yes. I no longer classify that one as recent though. Are Allen and Dawkins our only remaining offensive players from that game?

Before this weekend's games which includes three pivotal Saturday games, give me your 7 playoff teams in the AFC and their seedings. Here is what I came up with using the ESPN Playoff Machine 1. Ravens 13-4 ( Finish 3-1 Beat Jags, Dolphins, Steelers. Lose to the 49ers) 2. Chiefs 11-6 (Finish 3-1 Beat Patriots, Raiders, Chargers. Lose to the Bengals) 3. Jaguars 11-6 (Finish 3-1 Beat the Bucs, Panthers, Titans. Lose to the Ravens) 4. Bills 10-7 (Finish 3-1 Beat the Chargers, Patriots, Dolphins. Lose to the Cowboys) 5. Broncos 11-6 (Finish 4-0 Beat Lions, Patriots, Raiders, Chargers) 6. Bengals 11-6 (Finish 4-0 Beat Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs, Browns) 7. Browns 10-7 (Finish 2-2 Beat the Bears, Jets. Lose to the Texans and Bengals) Missing Out Colts 9-8 (Finish 2-2. Lose to the Steelers and Texans. Beat the Raiders and Falcons) Steelers 8-9 (Finish 1-3. Lose to the Benglas, Seahawks, Ravens. Beat the Colts) Texans 10-7 (Finish 3-1. Lose to the Titans (Road). Beat the Browns, Titans (Home), Colts) Dolphins 10-7 (Finish 1-3. Lose to the Ravens, Cowboys, Bills. Beat the Jets) Initial thoughts. 1. Seems unlikely both the Bengals and Broncos will win out. I do think the Broncos have a good shot of winning out. For the Bengals, probably more realistic to have them finish 3-1 with a loss to the Chiefs or even 2-2 with losses to the Chiefs and Browns. In either scenario if I plug those results in and leave everything else the same Miami takes the 7th seed and the Bengals miss the playoffs. 2. If I leave everything the same but have the Bills beat the Cowboys but lose to the Dolphins, then the Bills miss the playoffs.

Yep. And not to mention, the only game we have lost to the Dolphins in recent memory was one in which we lost half our players to heat exhaustion. Anda still we put up 500 yards of total offense and out gained them by nearly 300 yards on the day.

I was wondering the same earlier today and after thinking about it I think I have stumbled upon the answer. Point differential. The Bills are one of five teams with a 7-6, of which only two will make the playoffs. Currently, due to tiebreakers, the Bills are in the worst shape of those 7-6 teams and that is why they are currently in the 11th seed. However, stop and think for a second what a 7-6 record means. It essentially means you are about as equally likely to lose a game as you are to win a game. We really can't look at any of those 7-6 teams and say, oh they will beat that team for sure. They all have major flaws and could lose to any team. Well, except the Bills. Outside of the Cowboys, the Bills realistically should beat all the teams left on their schedule. Yes, that even includes the Dolphins IMO, who have been ravaged by injuries these last two weeks. Point differential of the 7-6 teams: Bills +104 (3rd highest in the conference and 5th best overall in the league) Texans +8 Bengals -7 (-45 through first 4 games +38 since week 5 onward including beating the 7 seed Colts by 20 points last week) Colts -16 Broncos -22 (-71 through first six games but +49 since week seven onward) This is why the Broncos have the second best odds to make the playoffs Steelers -40 Even the 8-5 Browns who currently hold the first wild card spot only have a +17 point differential. That's quite a bit worst than the Chiefs for example who hold a +64 differential with the same 8-5 record. Would anyone really be surprised if they lost to any of the remaining teams on their schedule : Bears, Texans, Jets and Bengals If we go by the thought process that a 7-6 team is just as likely to lose a game as they are to win a game, we can then start with the assumption that all of the 7-6 teams should finish out the year 2-2 regardless of who is on their schedule. Due to point differential, the Bills appear to be the obvious anomaly. The Bills look more likely to finish 4-0 or 3-1. If I am predicting the wild card teams I am going with the Bills, Broncos and Bengals. Those are the three teams that to me, look more likely to beat the majority (go 3-1) teams remaining on their schedule. The Colts, Steelers, Texans and Browns all feel just as likely to lose to a team on their schedule as they are to win. The obvious conundrum here is that the Bills lose head-to-head tiebreakers to the Broncos and Bengals and the Browns have a one game advantage currently. Assuming the Bills finish 10-7, we would need the Browns to finish 1-3, not just 2-2.

We have our QB knock on wood. And our offensive personnel have been as injury free as I can remember in a long time. Look at all the teams without their QB currently. Miami got hit massively with injuries these last two weeks. They could potentially lose out because of the injuries. They truly are the best team in the AFC if they can just make it. It likely all comes down to the Miami game. The wild card likely requires too many correct bounces of the ball to get in.

Well only half of them will likely hit. Many of the games you picked are toss up games as well. As are mine. So realistically I would say a split down the middle is accurate. But then you have to choose the correct ones. Impossible.

It all looks realistic to me but I bolded games that I think could go the other way. Well over half the games as you can see. One thing that is looking interesting to me, is don't sleep on the Broncos winning out and the Chiefs losing 2 of 4. Such a scenario could have the Chiefs missing the playoffs. I really like what I am seeing from Browning and the Bengals. That game could be a loss for KC. Then they just have to find one more loss out of the Patriots, Raiders and Chargers. Seems unlikely but with the way the Chiefs are playing i wouldn't be totally shocked if they drop one out of three. Curious how motived the Pats will be this week playing at home after all the reports about Bill leaving after the year. Broncos have one of the easiest schedules remaining and could win out if they can get past Detroit this weekend.

Feels like only a matter of time. and by that I mean week, 18 Sunday night football. we could technically catch them sooner, but either way the bills are going to need to beat the Dolphins in the final game for the division.

Lamar has an uphill battle because the numbers simply aren’t there. He hasn’t been efficient (QBR below 60) and I think he hasn’t even hit 20 total touchdowns on the season yet. We only have four games left. more than any other quarterback he would really need to finish the year on a real heater to get his numbers up.

The excitement is going to be through the roof if we beat Dallas this weekend. Technically still not in playoff position but just building massive momentum. Everyone is going to know who is coming and who is behind them. That photoshopped image of Josh in the side mirror that has already gone viral is going to be all over the place.

Drew Brees did in fact achieve this in 2012 with 44 total TDs (1 rushing) and 5,182 yards, of which a grand total of 5 yards were from rushing. In 2008 he lead the NFL in total yards and tied with Phillip Rivers for total TDs at 34 2011 was his best season with 5,562 total yards (first in the league and the season record until Mahomes broke it last year i think) and 47 total TD's (second in the league) with a 110 passer rating and 82 QBR. But Rodgers won the MVP with 48 total TD's, one more than Brees and a passer rating and QBR of 122 and 83 respectively. Allen so far is having a very Drew Brees like career with the monster numbers, no league MVP's and limited team success.