Sammy Watkins' Rib

The last three seasons Kittle has 15 games over 80 receiving yards in 45 games. Every third game Kittle is having a big game. I’d say that is doing something fairly frequently. Knox has three such games over the same time span and 40 games played. Knox is having a big game every 13th game or basically once per season. Kittle has 7 games over 100 yards receiving. Knox has 1. Kittle has 5 games over with 120+ yards receiving. Knox has zero.

I always figured Sammy Watkins would go on to have career years after leaving the Tyrod era Bills. That never really happened. I think Sammy's best year was still a year he played with Tyrod. One okay year with the Rams and absolutely nothing after despite playing in elite offenses with talented QB's. It's very possible Gabe just isn't very good just like Sammy. Even when Sammy was healthy he wasn't contributing much.

We have him for two more years and he has been a good contributor for this team since day 1. But for a second contract at a non-team friendly price he is going to need to show more IMO. You would like all your first-round picks to hit of course but a late first rounder who contributes for 5 years is also good. Many of us were somewhat shocked they extended Oliver. But that so far looks like a pretty good decision. But the Oliver extension paired with the needs of retooling the secondary, keeping a good o-line in place along with some skill players may mean there won't be enough money left over for Rousseau. We may get a hint on what they plan on doing with Rousseau in this next couple of drafts. If they don't use a day 1 or 2 pick on an edge rusher that would bode well for him possibly being an extension candidate. We need to see more out of Dalton before we can definitely say he is a hit. I THINK he will be, but no way can I say that after just one season. Many of us think he could and should have been used even more than he was which I think would have put him over the top of that "hit bar". Hopefully we see that next year.

Right. The ball just randomly was thrown 10 yards short for no reason at all. You are definitely in the minority with that opinion including the opinion of former players who have seen the play.

The stats you reference here for Allen are indeed true for this season. They are also a total outlier compared to the three seasons prior from 2020 to 2022. Allen had a lot of 3rd and long INT’s this year leading to his 1:1 ratio of TD’s to INT’s this last season. I’d even go a step further and say that eliminating 4 out of his 7 3rd down INT’s this year could have been the difference in the turnover narrative this year and may have cost him the MVP. Basically 4 plays may have cost Allen the MVP. One of the below is not like the others. 2023 7TD 7INT 72 rating 41.4% success rate 2022 9TD 4INT 95 rating 50.4% success rate 2021 15TD 6 INT 92 rating 44.5% success rate 2020 7TD 2INT 102 rating 50.8% success rate Historically Allen is not good on 3rd downs? That’s just not true based on the above data. By strictly passer rating splits, in 2020 Allen was worse on 2nd down than 3rd down. In 2021 he was worse on 1st down than 3rd down. In 2022, Allen was worse on 1st down than 3rd down. In none of the three years was 3rd down Allen’s worse split of the three downs. This year was a totally different story. Allen sucked butt on 3rd down. About 30 points lower than both 1st and 2nd down. I mean his rating was like 25 points lower than his average over the previous three seasons on 3rd down. Total freaking anomaly.

I think we have to make it to the AFC title game next year or McDermott is gone. Super Bowl appearance next year is not necessary. The other thing I would watch closely is how McDermotts defense plays in the AFC title game. If the Bills lose and the defense gives up 27+ for the 5th straight year, that is frankly, unacceptable and the Bills should make a change.

Favre, Brees and Brady all had great seasons at age 40 or beyond. But Brees couldn't stay healthy in any of his 40 year old seasons. Favre promptly fell off a cliff at 41 after having arguably the best season of his career at age 40. Brady was great of course. Besides Favre, Brees and Brady really play the game quite differently than Mahomes and Allen. Both Mahomes and Allen use their legs as weapons not just running the ball but in moving the chains through the air as well. We will have to see how that part of their game holds up or transitions as they start to enter their mid to late 30's.

That's pretty much what all the talking heads are saying. And I was surprised to see how many of the talking heads had votes for MVP. I assume many are HOF voters too. And inconsistent with the normal practice of good/great stats. Which was why I thought a couple times over the last 10 years a #2 seed QB won it.

I voted Chiefs standing in the Bills way. The evidence is pretty clear. Since 2020 the only team as consistently great as the Bills has been the Chiefs. Chiefs are 1 and Bills are 2 and I am not sure #3 is even close. Unlike most people, I actually suspect the Bengals would have beaten the Bills in 2021 season playoffs even if 13 seconds didn’t happen. However even with that being the case, success is measured at multiple levels in the playoffs and having two conference championship appearances rather than just one would make a big difference. Also, I do think the Bills were absolutely the clear second best team in the conference in 2020 and 2023. They make it to the Super Bowl in both years if the Chiefs are not in their way. That was especially true in 2020. I don’t think any other team that made the AFC playoffs that year could have ousted the Bills.

The 3rd and 9 play was killer. Not sure what the strategy was, but IMO, it should have been 4 down territory. Allen has three guys open immediately underneath if he fires the pass quickly and doesn't look deep. Neither of the three guys get a first down but they would set the Bills up in 4th and 3 or less. But at 4th an 9 i think you have no choice but to attempt the FG. By the time Allen comes back to the underneath guys it's too late and they are well covered.

The RB selections in today's NFL are a criminal offense by a GM. Just so bad.

That's a pretty massive advantage though. Provided you get to that point of course.

Sure. But the 49ers didn't lose because they couldn't force a punt on 4th and 1 from the Chiefs 34 yard line. The 49ers literally could have let the Chiefs march all the way down the field and then held them to a FG inside the red zone. They couldn't do that, and that is why they lost.

The college rule is different though. In college there is not sudden death element. No matter how many possessions it goes to, every team has a chance to match. In the NFL, the third possession is sudden death.

Why is he an idiot? That's exactly why you receive first is to get the third possession. The third possession is sudden death rules. It didn't work out in this scenario but it's easy to see it working out in other scenario's where both teams punt first possessions or both teams match scores. In the grand scheme of things, this is a nothing burger. There are advantages to both receiving or kicking. What if the 49ers kicked and it was the Chiefs that ended up winning on the third possession with a FG? Would the same people be criticizing Shanahan? Score every time, does not mean score a TD every time. You would think your defense would hold them to a FG. Afterall, this was a 19-19 game at the end of regulation. Not a 31-31 game.

IF YOU WANT TO CROWN THEIR ASS, THEN CROWN THEIR ASS! My impressions of Chiefs fans is basically Chiefs Planet, Bill and you. So unfortunately, yes, Chiefs Planet makes up a good portion of that. Too good not to, but so was Marino. And Peyton only got one with the Colts in the shadow of the GOAT.

Then receive is still maybe right call. If the Chiefs are going to score every possession, then try and beat them to the punch on the third possession. But you got to hope to either score a TD on your first possession or hold them to a FG on their first possession.

It is a tough decision between wanting the advantage of knowing if you need to use 4 downs to score or wanting the advantage of only needing a FG to win the game on the third possession of OT. I can see an argument for either way. Had the 49ers defense just been able to hold the Chiefs to a FG on their first possession, then the 49ers offense would have been in the cat bird seat only needing a FG to win the game. But my gut says kick off and take the 4 down advantage. It is less likely you'll give up back to back scoring drives.

Brady had 4 appearances and 3 titles in 7 years. Mahomes is at a faster past but not actually as crazy a pace as I thought. Felt like Brady had a longer drought between his first 3 rings and that 2007 season. If the Chiefs don't make the Super Bowl next season, then their first seven years as starters are exactly the same in terms of rings and Super Bowl appearances.

Be hard to win then though when his team is 9-8 and the 7th seed.

Why are we assuming they go for 2? 49ers only scored 19 points in regulation. They score a TD on their first possession and now we are afraid they are going to score points every time they have the ball?

Unless the next team up is the Bengals. Let's face it, the Bills match up well with the Chiefs. We are 3-3 in the last six games. The Bills, IMO, are 0-3 in the last three games against the Bengals.

It's more coaching over talent IMO. Perhaps Mahomes is the ultimate difference if we are talking talent. But Spags and Reid are all time greats at their craft. The Bills don't have a bunch of bums on the roster. I'm not buying that Diggs suddenly fell off a cliff mid-way through the season when prior he was having a career year. The exact same thing happened in 2022. Obviously, his skills didn't diminish in 2022 if he started 2023 off with a bang. Something else is going on there. Roster wise, I think the Bills had a great secondary but got banged up. They had an elite LB core but by the end of the season they lost both starting LB's. The Bills o-line was certainly good enough and I think James Cook, even with his drops is a weapon that most teams would covet.

Spagnuolo is definitely a key to their success. Cheifs D just held the 49ers to 19 points in regulation and 22 total. Packers and Lions D's gave up 24 and 34 respectively. The Lions offense scored more than enough points to beat the 49ers but failed because they couldn't score more than 34 points. Which of course is an absurd bar. Bills for once need to be able to hold one of these final 8 teams 24 or less points.

Meh. That was 2019 Allen. Or in other words, 50% of today's Josh Allen.