Sammy Watkins' Rib

Let’s hope so.

Who do you have them targeting?

give me DeJean if he is there.

Bills needs to take Cooper Dejean and then double dip on WR with their next two picks. Nobody knows who of the next 10 WR's to go off the board who will be a hit.

And yet Baltimore was held to what 10 points at home by the Chiefs. Miami’s offense held to 10 points. Chiefs kicked fg after fg in the Super Bowl. 49ers scored like 20 points in the Super Bowl? their is still a place for elite defenses in today’s game. Some say it is because o-line play is at a low.

Yep. Chiefs defense was unreal last year in the postseason. Mahomes is great but their skill players were garbage, OT terrible and they won a Super Bowl on the back of an elite defense in the postseason.

What do they do? take the 7th QB off the board? When the last two were day two talents.

it is an expensive insurance policy. They need a good o-line for the entire season to keep Rodgers healthy. He’s never really played with a bad o-line until last year and his season lasted 4 plays with that bad o-line.

I mean jets only have to wait till week 4 or 6 before Tyron is out for the year. If not, then yeah it is a very expensive insurance policy. But their season and maybe a division title rides on Aaron being healthy and having a chip on his shoulder.

I am watching the ABC telecast with the college gameday crew and they did not tip it. I was definitely shocked.

I do. Take Dejean and grab best available WR in round 2. If possible pull of small trade up and grab McConkey, Legette or Franklin. Coming away with Dejean and one of those three WR's would be a home run draft IMO.

I can’t wait to watch McCarthy fall out of the first round. He’s this year’s Will Levis in terms of receiving so much first round hype post bowl season and leading up to the draft.

Your projections are off a bit based on historical data. You project 620 targets but Allen only had 579 last year in a full 17 games. In his two most recent 16 game seasons in 2020 and 2022 he had an average that would have put him right around 600 for 17 games. His career high was 646 in 17 games played in 2021. I expect the Bills to have a continued focus on the running game so i lean more towards a repeat of the 580 attempts from last season. So I say you are anywhere from 20-40 attempts over expectation for 2024. Samuel the last five seasons has 105, 97, 92 and 91 targets in four of the last five seasons. The other season he only played 5 games. His rushing attempts in that span per year are 19, 4, 41, 38, 7. Your projections are 75 targets and 55 rushing attempts for Samuel. I can see the 75 targets, but he is capable of another 10-30 targets based on past performance. The 55 rushing attempts seems highly unlikely. For Kincaid I think we hope he hits 120 targets. 110 should be his floor. The top TE's in the game are all getting 120 -130 targets per season.

The questions on defense might be overblown. Both safety spots are really the only positions with significant change. While Hyde and Poyer were great in their time with the team, there is no denying they were both old last season by safety standards. Not out of the question that we are not losing much at all by moving on from both in the grand scheme of things. As @Kirby Jackson noted, the defense in particular has played a lot of games in the McDermott/Allen era without key defensive pieces for long stretches. Losing Floyd, Hyde and Poyer likely doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. I get concerned about the defense in the postseason every year though.

Ravens double dipped on small speed receivers. First Marquise Brown, whom they ultimately fell out of love with and then they replaced him with Zay Flowers. TBD on Zay Flowers.

Blast from the past! What was the Josh Reed treatment? Honestly curious what you are hinting at with regards to Josh Reed. I recall, if memory is correct, Reed had a pretty good rookie season and then did practically nothing with the Bills or any other team after. I think what a lot of folks are weary of is Beane expecting Shakir to keep up his level of play in an increased role only to have him fall short of expectations. Fans of course or weary due to Davis never taking that next step a lot of us thought he would.

None of which makes your point. Mahomes, Lamar and Burrow all peaked in 2018, 2019 and 2021 respectively. And you are railing on Allen having peaked in 2020. You want to crown Lamar over Allen? Because of hardware. Okay knock yourself out. Don't think a single GM would take Lamar over Allen. Mahomes plateaued in 2018 Jackson plateaued in 2019 Burrow plateaued in 2021

I think you are wrong here when it comes to the Chiefs. Kelce was not a top 10 receiving threat last season. He was not even top 20 in total receiving yards or yards per game. He was also outside the top 10 in both total receptions and receptions per game. Only on paper right now do the Bills have less receiving talent than the Chiefs did last year. But I would be willing to bet at the end of the year, the 2024 Billls and 2023 Chiefs will look very similar in receiving numbers. Allen is still going to throw for 4,200 yards so those yards are going to go somewhere. Just as Mahomes threw for 4,200 last year and yet didn't have any one player eclipse 1,000 yards.

Mahomes best season was in 2018. He hasn't meaningfully improved since then. He's only declined since 2018. See how weak that statement about Josh is? Lamar Jackson peaked in 2019 Joe Burrow peaked in 2021 wHaT iS WroNg WiTh ThEsE Qb'S!!!!???

"Overdrating players in a later round" that kind of sounds like an oxymoron. Once you get past round 4, it's a crapshoot in every draft.

The thing I love about the above stats is the 105 targets. That's the direction the team needs to go. Diggs was a 160 target per year receiver in his time in Buffalo. That is way too many forced targets to a single player. Shakir, Kincaid, Cook, Aiyuk, and Samuel make that your top four receiving targets and let them all get 80 - 120 targets.

Small sample size, yes. But boy did it spiral out of control FAST in all 2.25 games. In the most recent and only two full games, the Bills defense gave up TD-TD to start off each game. In the shortened game they gave TD and at least a for sure FG could have also easily been TD-TD in that one as well. Just no answers at all on defense in either of the three games. Offense really never clicked in either as well.

At the same time, reality is the Bills can't beat the Bengals. History says they are more likely to beat the Chiefs than they are the Bengals. Not likely we will ever avoid both in the playoffs but hopefully seeding can work out where we don't have to beat both.

I disagree. Bills have not really shown any hint at all that they can beat Cincy. We can't even be competitive with them. We are at least beating the Chiefs in the regular season and playing competitive game with them in the postseason. Cincy remains the Bills biggest challenge until proven otherwise. We just got lucky they didn't make the dance last year. They nearly did with a back up QB.

One of those receivers, Tez Walker, even went in the third round of Mock Draft 1.0.