Sammy Watkins' Rib

It was 100% a HC/upper management decision. And look, we all get why it makes sense to try and go in that direction for obvious reasons. But that does not dismiss the obvious facts that in doing so we limit one of the best weapons in Allen's arsenal. We take him down from 100% of his capabilities to 85% or 90%. We make him easier to defend and less likely to make big plays or move the chains. The offense failed and Dorsey was shown the door. Brady came in and continued the status quo from 2021 and 2022 under Daboll and Dorsey and what do you know the Bills went on a winning streak like they've always done to close out the season. I wouldn't put in stone what the number needs to be. But under Dorsey's 10 game average last year that number would have been 81 carries. That's likely far too few. 153 that Brady was on pace for might be too many for an entire season but I also think the Bills started to employ the push tush a lot last year and that is in part why Allen had a career high average of 9 attempts per game last season on Brady's 7 games to close out the season. I don't necessarily see the Bills continuing to use that tush push philosophy going forward. I think they will run it with the backs if they can. But we will see. And again, the Bills in 2021 and 2022 were over 8 carries per game with Allen in games 11-17 as well to close out the season. So this 150 carries pace is not something new to the offense.

1. Yes, history pretty clearly shows Allen should be running the ball quite a bit. Bills have the most success with that approach. Close to 20 rushing TD's? Now you are being ridiculous with that claim. Last year Allen had 15, a lot and an anomaly to previous year but still not close to 20. 2. Since 2020 what other teams are consistently outperforming the Bills offense?? Probably just KC. Suggesting the Bills offense is being outperformed seems inaccurate to me. Sure other teams get hot for one season or maybe two but the Bills have had a consistent body of work for 4 straight years now. 3. Many people were clamoring for Allen to run less last off-season. They were fools then and they are fools now if they continue to wish that IMO. You're suggesting things I haven't even stated or hinted at as if I formed opinions on them. Andy Reid or Ben Johnson as OC? Um, neither of those guys are coming as an OC to the Bills. When Ben gets a new gig it will be as a head coach. I don't believe I hinted either way my thoughts on replacing McD. For the record, I lean towards being perfectly fine with replacing McD for an offensive HC but that is an entirely separate conversation. As for the Bills recent OC choices in Brady and Dorsey, I don't think it is at all uncommon to hire from within. I see that as a nothing burger. Again, I think Dorsey was unfairly put into a position where he was forced to run Allen less to start the season last year. The Bills offense was unsuccessful, the defense was horrendous at times and he was scapegoated for failing at a new offensive philosophy that was likely forced upon him from the HC and management.

Do you want to win or have a neat passing offense like Miami and end the season on a losing streak? Was the passing offense bad or basically the same as every late season passing offense in each of the last three seasons under 3 separate coordinators? The guy everyone wanted gone in Dorsey actually had the most efficient late season passing offense too. Dorsey's demise was not utilizing Allen as a runner in the first 10 games of 2023. Something he did for the entirety of 2022 and his predecessor and successor both did as well. Allen's passing numbers games 11-17 each of the last three seasons: 2021- 60% completion 228 ypg 6.0 ypa 85 QB rating 15 TDs 7 INTs (5-2 recod) Daboll OC 2022- 61% completion 226 ypg 6.8 ypa 96 QB rating 14 TDs 4 INTs (6-0 record) Dorsey OC 2023- 61% completion 244 ypg 7.5 ypa 86 QB rating 10 TDs 7 INTs (6-1 record) Brady OC Numbers are nearly identical with the outlier being the TD : INT ratio in 2022. Last season the Bills traded in passing TD's for rushing TD's from Allen. Still near the exact same efficiency as under Daboll in 2021. I do think it is a philosophical change with some purpose behind it. With Allen at QB, he is always going to default to an aggressive playing style with throws down the field. I think the Bills want to try and shorten some of his air yards with the personnel they utilize knowing he is still going to naturally be slinging it when the opportunity presents itself. You also know with Allen the passing game floor is going to be pretty high. So you want to support him as much as you can with a ground game to match.

It's not besides the point at all. Again, people are sleeping on the role that Kincaid/Knox and Cook/Davis will play in the offense moving forward. We are not replacing Diggs this year or next year. Bills will not have a WR on the team in the foreseeable future that commands 160+ targets per year. That is not the direction the offense wants to go. Both Diggs and Davis were phased out of the offense last year and the Bills turned the season around from a 5-5 start to a 6-1 finish with the one loss to the eagles in that 7 game stretch hardly falling on offensive issues. Why are we making a big deal out of replacing two players that were phased out of the offense last year when the Bills went on their winning streak?

I'm fine with just drafting one WR this year. I think too many people are sleeping on the snap counts and targets that Kincaid/Knox and Cook/Davis are going to command this coming year. Then throw in Samuel, Shakir and Coleman. How many more snaps and targets would we be giving to rd 2-5 rookie WR? And why not see what Shorter can do in year 2 who is a former found 5 wr? And then of course you have your vet role players in MVS, Hollins and Claypool where it is very likely one of three doesn't even make the active roster because we won't have the need for that many WR's.

many, many factors that will be hard to duplicate. The bolded, like the pandemic, is basically impossible to duplicate. We see players all the time now have career years early in their careers and then never reach those same heights again. Mahomes in 2018 Jackson in 2019 Allen in 2020 They all have in common in that they were breakout seasons in their second or third year and to this date they are their best statical seasons by a wide margin.

I think the answer is yes, we want Allen running much more than the 4.6 attempts per game he was getting in the 10 games with Dorsey last year. The team was 5-5 and not playing winning football with that strategy. As I pointed out in another thread, Allen's "heavy" usage as a runner in the final seven games of the season after Brady took over was not out of the ordinary for the Bills and Allen. The low 4.8 ypc was the anomaly and that new game plan the Bills tried clearly failed as they were 5-5 and looking down the hole of missing the playoffs entirely. I do think the Bills will once again try and employ an early season game plan of less carriers for Allen. So far that has not proven to be a successful game plan outside of the 2020 season which I'm not sure we can successfully try and copy due to the unique circumstances of that year. Not just covid, but the Bills taking the league by surprise with the addition of Diggs and the emergence of Allen. Also don't think teams had totally grasped how to defend QB's like Allen and Mahomes yet in 2020. Also, in 2020, Allen ran more early in the season (first 10 games 7.2 attempts per game) and then closed the season running less (final 6 games 5.0 attempts per game). Complete opposite of what we have been seeing the last three seasons where Allen increases his carry load later in the season. Bills win/loss record in ( ) 2019- first 10 games 7.4 attempts per game (6-4) 2019- final 6 games 5.8 attempts per game (4-2) 2020- first 10 games 7.2 attempts per game (7-3) 2020- final 6 games 5.0 attempts per game (6-0) 2021- first 10 games 6.1 attempts per game (6-4) 2021- final 7 games 8.7 attempts per game (5-2) 2022- first 10 games 7.1 attempts per game (7-3) 2022- final 6 games 8.8 attempts per game (6-0) 2023- first 10 games 4.8 attempts per game (5-5) 2023- final 7 games 9.0 attempts per game (6-1) The trend the last three seasons under three different offensive coordinators has been Allen attempting 9 rushes per game to close out the final stretch of the season. For that to be the case under three different OC's is pretty telling. Only twice Allen has averaged 5.0 or less attempts per game and they yielded drastically different results for the W/L column. Last year was the only year Allen averaged less than 6 attempts per game over the first 10 games of the season. Only twice has he even been under 7 attempts per game in the first 10 games, over the last five seasons. The other was 6.1 attempts in 2021 and lead to a 6-4 record, not as good as the 7-3 records when Allen had over 7 attempts per game.

none of your replies here are making sense to me. What am I missing? why would it be shocking that Allen, one of the most gifted quarterbacks in scrambling and taking off and running, why would that trait coupled with his passing not lead to greater success? why do you think the bills will not start slow? They lost the opening game of the season in two of the last three years. They could easily start slow. so, are you going to provide the numbers? Or are you going to make me look them up and post them? I already provided the rushing attempts breakdown.

More difficult to pass late in the season? Shocking.

but I thought you were concerned about Allen being an also ran in the postseason because the bills can never secure the one seed? You’re not gonna get the one if you start slow. They have done a good job of ending the season on significant winning streaks. but it’s been the start of the season or an October /November stretch that has killed them.

FC pointed out nothing. Allen ran a similar number of times to end each of the last three seasons. Furthermore: 2021: end of season 5 game winning streak 2022: end of season 8 game winning streak 2023: end of season 6 game winning streak wins over a month or two are short streaks? That's half the NFL regular season. I don't believe it is accurate to define those winning streaks as short term success. Without those winning streaks the Bills seasons are drastically different.

Which is the anomaly below? 2021: 6.1 vs. 8.7 2022: 7.6 vs. 8 2023: 4.8 vs. 9 Those are Allen's rushing attempts per game in each of the last three seasons. The latter number in each year are his attempts in the final 7 games of that regular season. The former number are the attempts per game prior to the final seven. Allen rushing more later in the season is nothing new and he didn't run significantly more in the final seven games then anything we saw in 2021 or 2022 seasons. What was significantly different was how few times he ran the ball to start the 2023 season. What?

Allen's regular season turnover percentage is 2.7% Allen's postseason turnover percentage is 1.3% Allen's regular season TD percentage is 5.9% Allen's post season TD percentage is 5.8% He's been remarkably consistent with a high TD percentage in both regular season and post season. Has a dramatically lower turnover percentage in the post season vs. regular season. We've seen low turnover Josh Allen in the post season and it still hasn't even been enough to get the Bills to a Super Bowl. Is your opinion above from your turnover narrative thread, that Allen is an also ran playoff QB because of his 4.5 TD : 1 TO ratio in the postseason?

Allen's ceiling is what he has done in the playoffs. Something like 27-6 TD to Turnover ratio? That puts him in the 4.5 to 1 Aaron Rodgers category. Despite the 4.5 to 1 TD to turnover ratio in the postseason, Allen's decreased turnovers in the post season has not resulted in the Bills getting closer to the Super Bowl. Less turnovers in the post season without an increase in TD's would not have helped the Bills Super Bowl chances. But scoring even more TD's along with more turnovers would have possibly helped.

This was a good thread. But one thing unsolved is there is no assigned value for TD's and turnovers. Are we considering the two equally valuable? I certainly don't think that is true. But if the only stat we have is TD:TO ratio, that basically assumes equal value between both. I much rather have my QB put up 3 TDs and 2 TO then say have my QB put up 2 TD and 1 Turnovers. A TD is worth 6 points every time. A turnover could be worth 6, 3 or 0 points for the other team. How you get to your TD:TO ratio matters IMO. If you have a middle of the pack TD:TO ratio but don't actually score many TD's ( think Tyrod Taylor for example), I don't think that is a good thing. If you have a middle of the pack TD:TO ratio and happen to lead the league in TD's since 2018, that is a much more valuable QB.

The idea makes sense to me. They are situations where you are behind the sticks more than 10 yards and take a reasonable deep shot. I don't love the OP's definition of 3rd and 5 or longer. There are better options between 3rd and 5 - 10 yards. It should be defined as behind the sticks. The INT against Washington was 3rd and 20 from Bills 40 yard line. Took a deep shot, DB made a better play than Gabe Davis and picked it off at the 19 for no gain. That's a 41 yard net punt inside the 20. Jacksonville game, Bills had 3rd and 15 from Bills 41 yard line. Deep shot to Diggs in one one coverage. Diggs gets both hands on the ball and is out muscled by the DB at the 7 yard line for no gain.. Result is equivalent to net punt of 52 yards inside the 10 yard line. The Washington one was a perfect example. When you are at 3rd and 20, every pass to move the chains is going to be deep. Even if you complete something at 15 yards and rely on 5 yards of YAC to get the first down. You are still throwing at least 15 air yards down the field. So it is a question of how deep do you want to throw it? Deep or really deep? If you are going to turn it over, I rather it be intercepted 40 yards down field over 15 or 20 yards down field.

I think you project because Josh Allen is still this teams QB. It's similar to Hill leaving KC and Kelce aging. Mahomes and KC were always still going to put up yards and points. It was just going to look different and the ball would be distributed differently. The same will be true in Buffalo. Don't know if it means one or two players explode this year and become top 10 or top 5 at their position or if it just means the ball will be spread around a lot and we have like 4 players all in that 800-1100 range. The yards are going to be there which means you project some of these skill players the Bills have to look a lot better than how they currently appear on paper.

yep. It’s what set the narrative. After week 5 it definitely was a thing and a talking point. Then the law of averages evened things out.

This is also wrong. 6 on first down and 7 on 3rd down.

The arm punt narrative popped up early in the season last year. Allen had three of them (OP for some reason left out the one against the Commanders) in the first five games of the season. They were very noticeable in a short span of games to start the season. Then there was the Hail Mary in the second jets game and the desperation fourth down INT against the Dolphins. That’s five right there that were basically non factors in the outcome of the game and field position. Not sure if that is above league average but it does seem like one or two above league average. but again, I think it was the very noticeable three arm punts in the first five games that made the term become a thing.

Counter point, you have zero shot of flipping the field with a PI on a deep shot on 3rd down if you don’t take it. Those plays are rare but just as likely as gaining a first on a punt do to a defensive penalty.

missing the arm punt from the commanders game right? That was text book arm punt. 3rd and 20 from the Bills 40. Intercepted at the Washington 19 for no gain.

Troy Franklin and Brendan Rice this year are two. So when you say you doubt Justin Shorter would have been drafted this year, I'm sorry I don't put a lot of stock into that opinion.

With all due respect you have made a lot of predictions on WR's in the draft that were far off to say the least. Not saying you are any different than all of us in that regard but that nobody knows much of anything in terms of how a draft will play out. The history of the Bills shows that they have gotten production from WR's in that early day 2 range. Shorter is behind both thus far having not gotten any action as rookie but we will see. I agree he might not make the 53 and find himself on the practice squad. But who knows.

Perhaps Justin Shorter is your answer to the day three WR's you wanted the team to draft?