Sammy Watkins' Rib

How are we going to consistently top KC in regular season standings and post season play if we don't let Allen be who he is all season start to finish? Mahomes is the better passer. That is clear. Allen is the better runner. That is clear as well. If we don't let Allen use his natural abilities to his fullest but the other guy in KC is using is natural abilities to his fullest how can we ever expect to come out on top? We are going to handicap Allen and expect to put the best product on the field and compete with KC? What is straw man about any of that? Seem like pretty straight forward logic. I know your points an agree with them except for the though of not using Allen at his fullest abilities. Give me the weapons and give me Allen's legs and win the Super Bowl.

I do realize you never made that argument. I think I mostly took exception of of your fear of Allen ending the season on IR because he ran the ball 9 times per game to end the season. Doesn't seem rationale to me when in '21 and '22 he ran the ball 8.7 and 8.0 times per game. Or the thought that having him run 9 times per game for a stretch was unsustainable or outrageous when we have already seen him do that in the two previous seasons for whatever reasons. Sure, if he runs the ball 9.0 times per game from start to finish then that may be a reason to worry. But we've never seen that. And as mentioned, I think a decent number of those 9.0 rushes per game were push tushes both around midfield and at the goal line. The Bills really went to the tush push when Brady took over or at least that is my memory of it. Haven't been able to find a data source on that. You can get hurt on any play but I do believe it is less likely for major injury on a short yardage run vs a normal designed Allen keeper or scramble. I'm at the point where I want the Bills to get the one seed. As mentioned again, not so much for the bye week and homefield advantage, but for the more favorable divisional round match up. So instead of playing KC or Cincy in the second round they play that year's Jacksonville or Houston. It's tough to make it to the Super Bowl. It's even tougher when every single post season you have to play both of the top three teams in the conference just to make it. So I am of the mindset that the most clear path to the one seed is not holding Allen back at all. You are of the mindset that Allen needs better weapons in the passing game. That is fine. I don't take issue with that. But I say give him the better weapons AND let him run. That's our best shot at the 1 seed.

But will it be a repeat of 2023 where he has less than 5 rushes per game? Or will it be more similar to '21 and '22 where he is around 6-7.5 attempts per game. I do expect Josh to run more later in the season as well. Just don't know how much he will be held back to start the season. There is a chance they could say screw it, Josh running 8 times per game is our best path to the one seed. Also, will they continue to incorporate the tush push over giving the ball to the RB's?

This is correct, but this past season they really ran Josh even less than the previous two seasons. I'm of the opinion that Dorsey was in fact told to not run Josh so much. Josh was probably instructed the same. "Don't take off, just eat it for an incompletion". It will be very interesting to see what his rushing attempts look like to start the season this year. Do they try to double down on the "don't run Josh" gameplan. I think they would go with that gameplan for the entire season if they had the luxury to do so. But unfortunately, obtaining the one seed, not so much for the bye and home field, but more for the favorable divisional round match up possibilities is too valuable and it will pretty much always lead to the Bills having to play Josh at his best.

They've been putting the hard miles on the QB three straight years under three separate coordinators. They have always had that willingness. And for that willingness to exist through three separate coordinators, I would have to assume it is greenlighted by McDermott and Beane. 2021- Daboll 8.7 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (5-2 record) 2022- Dorsey 8.0 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (7-0 record) 2023- Brady 9.0 rushes per game in final 7 games of season (6-1 record) Allen's rushing attempts per game in the games prior to the final seven games of the season were: 2021- 6.1 2022- 7.6 2023- 4.8 2022 was Allen's most balanced year rushing the ball from start to finish. The second half of the 2023 season the Bills started to heavily turn to not just QB sneaks with Allen, but they incorporated the tush push. I think in part that is why he had a career high attempt average of 9 rushes per game down the stretch. But still not far off from his 8.7 and 8.0 in the two previous seasons. His yards per rush in '23 (4.4ypr) was way down though compared to '21 (6.9ypr) and '22 (5.1 ypr). Certainly some of that lower ypr in '23 can be contributed to an uptick in the tush push and short yardage plays the Bills ran with Allen when Brady took over. It seemed to be a new wrinkle in their game plan when Brady took over. Really nothing new with how Allen was utilized down the stretch. What was off was how little his legs were used to start the season compared to the two previous seasons. Was it the reason why the Bills had their worst record since Allen's rookie year (5-5) through 10 games. No. I wouldn't say it was the reason, but it certainly didn't help matters. I could easily see the Bills with at least one more win if Allen had a game where he really ran the ball with authority in the first half of the season.

Shows how much others around the league care about the dolphins, which is very little.

The Hurts contract is interesting. The next three seasons these are his cap hit rankings for the QB position: 2024- 16th $13M 2025- 18th $21M 2026- 15th $31M And then.. 2027- 9th $41M 2028- 4th $47M 2029- 1st $97M 2030* -29 $27M *Only three QB's under contract for 2030 season but got to figure $27M will be cheap. Eagles are basically all in to win these next three seasons with Hurts. Even AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith don't make outrageous money until after 2027. The weird thing is the Joe Burrow contact has no cap relief at all. It's basically consistently high in cap hit for the next six seasons from 2024 to 2029.

It was a pretty big talking point amongst voters and media that Jackson meant so much to his teams success compared to the other candidates in the running. So they gave it to the dude who played with the #1 scoring defense and #1 takeaway defense.

I think Caleb's floor is Kyler Murray. Kyler is pretty good IMO. Kyler's biggest flaw though is that he is injury prone. That's a pretty bad flaw to have.

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend"

so you have given up on Kincaid and Coleman already? both those guys have elite potential. Two elite potential receivers drafted in the last two seasons.

here is what you are missing FC. had the Bills drafted another WR in rounds 2-4 half of the people complaining in this thread of lack of receivers and what not, would withdrawal their complaints. But would have changed? Bills would still not have an elite receiver, TE or WR. But for some reason their fears would subside because we took another chance on a receiver on day two or three. heck, even say we traded into the top 10 and drafted one of the big three. We still don’t have an elite receiver on the roster going into this season in that scenario but again, it would be silent in this thread from those screaming the loudest that we haven’t invested in the position (false) or that we don’t have elite talent on the roster at the receiver position.

hardly my take. The big swing the bills took is that Kincaid becomes elite. Like top 5 next season is probably the hope. Top 3 after that.

Not everything goes to plan. We all know that. That said, Kincaid has better pedigree as you suggest so the increased work load is totally rationale and expected. I agree Shakir could hit or bust. Don’t know. But I don’t see a reason to not give him a legitimate shot at hitting. And of course, Bills did draft Coleman 32 overall. They are not putting all their eggs in the Shakir, Vet or bust basket.

And people act like Kincaid isn’t on the team. look it is simple. Kincaid is supposed to be the elite pass catcher. Don’t know why folks have a hard time understanding that. We don’t know if he will be come elite best TE in the league, top 3, top 5, top 10 or bust. But there is no question he is the main piece to the puzzle right on offense. and what is with this out of necessity nonsense some are throwing out? I don’t care why we are drafting receivers. I have to believe most teams draft receivers (again WR/TE) until they hit. Bills are no different. They had Diggs for 4 years via trade. They tried Davis and Knox through the draft and some vets. None panned out. That’s life as an NFL franchise. But now it is freak out time at TBD because Bills have traded Diggs and the receivers we have drafted the last three years have been “out of necessity”. That take just makes zero sense. If one wants to argue the Bills should trade for a WR again. Okay that makes a bit more sense. But with Allen on his big money contract now and a failed Von Miller experiment I don’t see that happening this year. The Bills would be much better off long term having either Coleman or Kincaid hit as an elite talent over giving out a big money contract to a WR. Again, some are drawing conclusions that are not there. I am a strong believer in an elite TE as a better option to an offense over an elite WR. Bills are trying to hit a home run with Kincaid. It’s harder to find that elite TE but it’s worth it if you hit on them. I’m glad the Bills took a swing. But yes, of course an offense needs someone elite catching the ball. Whether it is a TE or a WR doesn’t necessarily matter but I think most see the recent value in TE’s leading teams to multiple rings.

that’s not what I’ve been saying. I’ve been firm in two things. bills have invested more in receivers (WRand TE) these last two years than some folks believe. winning a Super Bowl can be done with or without elite WR’s. Luckily he is not the only receiver on our team.

wait. We aren’t playing Coleman this year? Got it. Lol

assuming they can get on the field right? Who are you taking off the roster? kincaid and shakir all had great catch rates. The plan is to give them larger roles in the offense.

I agree. I am pointing out how ridiculous Mr. rags claim of not winning a ring last year (but we did the previous years???) was. That our inability to win a ring with phasing diggs and Davis out somehow draws a conclusion worth while. many factors go into winning a ring. To put it all on one specific thing as he did is a bit ridiculous.

My opinion is that Kincaid, Shakir and Coleman are all “young talent” being added to the passing game with expanding and emerging roles. That’s 3 players when only what 4 or at most 5 can be on the same field at the same time. How many young guys do we need? Do they all need to be “young talent” guys? Bills have invested their first two picks in the last two drafts into receivers.

I think it had many, many factors. That’s quite obvious as we know. A couple of those factors will not repeat themselves in our lifetimes. A QB taking the league by surprise and telling the league “here I am” only happens once. A global pandemic, once in a lifetime. They didn’t have quite the same level of success in 2021 with those receivers still on the roster.

No offense but that response gets a huge eye roll. so what were their excuses in 2020, 2021 and 2022? No rings either. Bengals no rings with Chase, Higgins and Boyd. Miami, zero division titles with Hill and Waddle. No rings in Philly with those WR’s.

I 100% agree. Balls to the wall or sugar high Josh whatever you want to call him is the most exciting and IMO unstoppable force the game has ever seen. It's the way he should play all the time. Josh will get injured. Everyone does. The question will be how does he comeback from an injury?

I did answer the question. I basically said your assumed answer is incorrect. I said sure in a one season sample size, some offenses will do better than the Bills. But big picture, since 2020 who is consistently outperforming the Bills offense? IMO, that would just be KC. So if the Bills are #2 on the list I don't think that is really worth worrying about. Not sure why you are even arguing this point. Did I not state clearly that Dorsey was wrongly scapegoated and fired? Everyone knows the defense was terrible and led to many of our losses. Heck, look at the Denver game. The offensive personnel let Dorsey down with 4 huge turnovers, none of which can be pinned on the OC and the defense was horrendous, particularly late in the 4th quarter. My main point when it comes to Dorsey is that he was not able to work with Allen at 100% of his capabilities. And in part it led to a 5-5 record. I'm not saying the Bills would have gone 8-2 if Allen ran more but anything would have helped and been better than 5-5. This IMO, was a upper management decision pushed on to the OC. I expect it to be pushed on to Brady to start this upcoming season as well.

I simply think it is wrong to make your best weapon less of a threat. By limiting his running that is what you do. Bills best chance to win a Super Bowl will always be with Allen playing at 100% of his capabilities. Not 85% or 90%. The Bills are not going to get by the Chiefs and Mahomes with Allen only playing up to 85% of his abilities. And the conference is tough right now. Bills haven't even been able to obtain the 1 seed in the last four seasons and that is with the Chiefs only obtaining it themselves twice in that span. We need Allen with 100% of his capabilities in every game, even the week 1 and 2 regular season games . Only time will tell if he has a shortened career like Cam. Allen has been a significantly better and consistent QB than Cam so I've never loved the comparison but I get why it is made. People think Cam fell off a cliff due to injuries. To me it was a bit more about Cam really only ever being completely average outside of one great year. So once Cam lost a hint of ability to age or injury, he really fell off a cliff. Once and when Allen loses a hint of ability to age or injury his ceiling should still remain much higher than Cam's. I disagree, with regards to how the Bills HC and upper management see the issue of Allen running. I do think they want less carries for Allen. I expect them to try that again to start next season. As you said, they through that game plan out the window (as they should have) when Brady took over and they were 5-5 and every game was a must win. But I do expect a similar focus of less carries for Allen to start the season next year. If the Bills are successful, maybe they will have the luxury they had in the 2020 season where Allen was not called on to carry a heavy load with his legs to end the 2020 season and the Bills went on a long winning streak. But as mentioned before, that 2020 season may never repeat itself again. Just as the 2018 and 2019 seasons for Mahomes and Jackson never repeated themselves to this point.