Sammy Watkins' Rib

Houston is giving up more yards per play than they gain? They also gave up 24.1 ppg and only scored 23.6ppg. How the hell did they make the playoffs?

And 120 vs Dallas, 117 vs Miami, 102 vs NE and 92 vs Denver. And Philly was one of the first 8 games Josh played. Not one of the last 8. You don’t have a point here unless you can tell me his overall QB rating was higher in the first 8 games played than it was in the last 8 games. I’ll save you the time in looking, it wasn’t. And that doesn’t even factor the greater degree of difficulty in the second half of the season playing better defenses and games that matter with playoffs on the line. Your theory that Daboll held Allen back in the second half of the season doesn’t seem to hold any water. Unless holding back strictly refers to passing yards and completion percentage. And again against much better defenses.

Josh sucked this year throwing deep. I mean really sucked. But somehow it is Daboll’s fault Josh forgot how to throw the deep ball? I’d be more concerned if Daboll threw in the towel and never had Josh throw deep again. That would have been the definition of holding Josh back. Eventually Josh hit a couple in the second NE game. We lost but it was a significantly better game for Allen than the first match up.

Are you sure that was Daboll and not McD?After all, McD thought Peterman was a better option than Tyrod the season before and Daboll wasn’t even around for that fiasco.

Does McD seem like a head coach to you that is going to let his offensive coordinator open things up so his QB can throw for 300 yard games? Maybe that time will come down the road with one but right now I believe McD could could very well be the one you should be pointing your finger at if you are unhappy with the passing yards the offense is producing. I say we keep both and let Allen continue to grow.

So then what the hell were we doing wrong during our 17 year drought?

Daboll gets way too much flake from fans. First off, did Allen really struggle as a passer in the second half of the season? His overall QB rating would say no. Only stats that tailed off were completion percentage and passing yards. But let’s pretend that in an alternate universe Allen struggled in the second half of the season. Don’t you think playing the 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 10th and 11th ranked pass defenses may have had a hand in that? Allen basically sat out the Jets game so he only played one team in the second half of the season that did not have a top 11 pass defense. In the first half of the season Allen only faced one defense in the top half of the league and that was New England. And Allen played significantly better against New England the second go around. Let’s also not forget that Allen was the most raw QB drafted in the first round two years ago. He’s a work in progress and right now Daboll and Allen are a good fit.

Me too. Darnold's biggest issue I see is throwing off his back foot. And throwing while he is falling away from the defense.I don't see him fixing this issue. It's in his DNA. Jets fans think it will go away once the line gets better but even the best lines or even average lines are not 100% effective all the time. What happens when Daronld faces a great defense? He's going to meltdown everytime?

Good to know that it is on ABC too. ABC is the most PITA channel for me to pick up with and antenna but I should be able to make it work. Backup will be on-line stream.

I thought it was interesting that Knox was inactive for the game along with Beasley, Brown, Singletary and White. Was Knox nursing an injury or is it a sign of the value that the coaching staff puts on Knox? If Allen and Knox can put it all together they can be a good combo going forward.

I honestly wouldn't be shocked if both the Titans and Bills advance to the divisional round. Both teams are just as good as the teams they are playing this weekend.

McKenzie filled in at CB? I didn't realize that. Wow. McKenzie's got to be thinking "Hey Coach what if I get injured?" Coach says, "That's a chance we're willing to take". McKenzie looked good yesterday. Duke too.

Misshandled it into one of the league's top pass defense units. Yeah we should be concerned...

I like how he starts paragraphs with: "Some unpleasant things to consider" and "something else that should be of concern" and then asks what bad things he has said of Allen? As if we are dumb and can't read through the lines.

It was demoralizing when Allen threw the jump ball into the end zone in the New England game on the final play to our 5'8" receiver.

If you turn out to be wrong? You already are wrong based on your first 16 games to next 16 games theory. Allen has improved in his 11 starts after his first 16 starts already. And if Allen never improves another iota beyond his current 11, while somewhat disappointing, he's still reached that low level franchise QB benchmark like a Eli Manning, Stafford or Newton. But if he improves just a bit, which I guess you think he might, then he's definitely a legitimate franchise QB.

I certainly read the entire post and it's an entire contradiction that draws zero conclusions as to if we have seen the best from Allen, if he will regress, stay the same, or get significantly better. Your post prior is the one where you state and these are your exact words: " it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on". The most confusing part of all this is that you don't seem to understand what Josh Allen's stats are for his first 16 games and his last 16 games. Did you forget that he only started 11 games last year? As I stated, with 5 games to go still, Allen so far falls in the category of QB's who have improved dramatically over his first 16 games.I mean heck, if the Allen we are seeing now (last 11 games) is the Allen we can expect in the future but slightly improved, then we're talking about legitimate franchise QB. I also don't think your thesis accounts for Allen being the one QB of all the recent QB's drafted that came into the league with the most to learn and longest development time. If any QB will continue to improve as he progresses through years 2,3,4 etc. it is Allen.

And what does any of this have to do with Allen exactly? You do do realize that Allen still has six more games to play before he completes his second 16 games in the league? And what exactly is your argument? That Allen has plateaued for the most part and will only be marginally better than his first sixteen games? Do you even realize that Allen has improved significantly so far from his first 16 games? His 16th game starting was the Titans game this year. Transplantbillsfan already gave you some of the splits although mine differ a bit. Not sure if he is using the week 1 game last season as Allen’s first game of not. I used the week 2 Chargers game since that was his first start. First 16 games: 15 TD’s 19 INT’s Next 11 games: 15 TD’s. 2 INT’s I didn’t calculate his QB rating but this pretty much puts it into perspective and you can easily see that their is a huge improvement from first 16 to the next 11 games: First 16 games: 3 games >100 QB rating 5 games < 60 QB rating Next 11 games: 5 games > 100 QB rating 0 games < 60 QB rating No offense, but I just don’t see how any of your thesis applies to Allen. You even give several examples of GOAT level QBs that had very poor stats for their first 16 games but progressively got better throughout their career. Exactly how Allen’s young career has gone so far. And given Allen’s background of playing at a JC and then small school Wyoming with weaker competition, it shouldn’t shock any of us that Allen will need more time than even just your average QB to fully develop. You have apparently worked hard on calculating all these numbers for so many different QB’s but to quote one of the greatest Christmas movies of all time: “so do washing machines”.

Certainly a factor. Checking out the top 4 scoring offenses from last year KC, NE, LARams and NO; Mahomes, Goff and Brees were around middle of the pack 13-18 in attempts and Brady was down in the bottom 3rd of the league at 23. This year, NE offense not nearly as good and Brady has the 3rd most attempts this season at 48. I think it also has a lot to do with style of play too for each individual team. This years top two scoring teams Baltimore and San Francisco have QBs that basically rank dead last in attempts when you weed out the non starters/injured starters. So that is a big difference from the year prior where the top offenses had guys ranked around the middle in 3rd and 10+ attempts.

Nothing wrong with being the best actually. It's the attempts you have to watch out for. Best conversion rate and best rating while middle of the pack in attempts would be great.

It was a long time ago now but my gut tells me Belicheck probably did not allow for his offensive coordinator to be as aggressive today as they were back when they won their original three super bowls. Brady wasn't the same QB that he has grown to be now. In this case, a Tiger can actually change it's stripes when it comes to coaching philosophy. McDermott could change as Allen gets better and as both gain more experience individually. I mean how many years total has McDaniels been OC there in New England now too? That helps a lot as well I'm sure.

Pro Football Reference Game Play Finder This isn't a discussion about the obvious: What about the other downs and distances? Obviously given Allen's overall QB rating and completion percentage he is below average on the other downs and distances if he is one of the best on 3rd and 10+. We know what Allen's weaknesses are. This is just one stat I'm highlighting to show one of his strengths. You can sort through the linked table however you wish. The gist of it is this: -Allen is converting for first downs on 3rd and 10+ at a rate of 33%. -Allen has a Qb Rating of 110 on 3rd and 10+ -I calculated a league average of 24% factoring only starters or back ups who have played a majority of their teams games. -Sample size too small? Not sure. But Allen could throw his next 4 attempts for in-completions or short of the sticks and he would still be at 30% conversion rate and still leading the league in that category as one of only three QB's above 30% conversion rate. That makes me think the sample size is probably large enough for this season. His overall completion percentage is right on track with his whole season percentage but the rating is significantly better. Is that luck? Prevent? Either way, he's taking advantage of what the defense is giving him and making the right decisions and throws far more often than league average. -Only three QBs have a conversion rate of 30% or higher this year. Fitz, Dak and Allen. Fitz leads the league at 34% but has a 51 QB rating. Mahomes lead the league last year at 41% and Luck was second at 37%. -Only two QB's, Mahomes and Prescott, have higher QB ratings than Allen's 110.8 on 3rd and 10+. We can make it 3 if we include Stafford with his 29 attempts 117 rating. -MVP Lamar Jackson has a league low 24 such attempts (throwing out the back ups and injured starters) which probably isn't surprising considering their great run game. He's only put up a 76 QB rating on his league low 24 attempts. For a lot of us, Allen passes the eye test and I think some of that has to do with how he excel's on 3rd and 10+. It's been a long time since we've seen a QB that can convert a lot of these attempts AND still be efficient. Fitz was never afraid to let it rip on 3rd down but just like this season he didn't always make the best decisions or throws.

First off he's 1-4. The other loss was to Baker who does not have a higher QB rating. Baker does have a higher QBR than Allen, but then so does Fitzpatrick which would mean the Bills and Allen have 3 wins against teams with a QB with a higher QBR instead of 1. Not sure which metric you are going by. I do think you bring up some things to consider but overall I am not worried that we have a Mitch Turbitzky or Mark Sanchez situation on our hands. I am encouraged by what I have seen from Allen and yeah, he's not even lighting it up statistically so it's not a huge leap of faith to think he can't duplicate a 85 QB rating season next year or even better it with an 88 or 90. I'm not sure what his actual splits are but I would venture to guess that in his last 9 games he has a 90 something QB rating which is just another measure of consistent improvement out of Allen that we have seen since his rookie year. And that's against some of the better defenses and on the road during that 9 game stretch. The Bills defense is playing well but in terms of metrics that can often not be sustainable from season to season, they are only 9th overall with 22 Takeaways. They are not at an unsustainable pace like the Patriots or Steelers this year each tied for first with 36 takeaways. The Bears led the league last year with 36. As you mentioned not sustainable. They haven't scored a single defensive TD this year. And only one lone special teams TD when the game was all but over against Miami. Bills do have a top 3 defensive unit overall but that is for two years running now. It's a more sustainable metric than leading the league in takeaways or turnover differential. Not unreasonable to think they will have a top 8-10 unit next season. That's what I'm wondering too. Mahomes might be Marino. And Allen will be Kelly. Or maybe Mahomes is Peyton and Allen is Brady if we want to give each player some super bowl success.

Ravens and Pats D >>> Cowboys defense. That has to be a huge part of it. Transplantbillsfan just told us Allen is the only the second QB over the last two seasons to have a 100+ Qb rating playing in Foxboro. The other being Mahomes. That is great for Allen and also tells us just out great the Pats D is at home. Yet, Mahomes is the only other QB to have a 100+ QB rating at Foxboro the last two seasons. So, yeah swap Allen with Mahomes and we would have won. Sure. Swap Allen with your average QB and we do not win yesterday.

The other thing is he takes too many sacks. It's not all on a bad o-line a lot of it is his style of play. Which works sometimes for him but can also lead to INTs and negative plays. He is a gamer though in very much the same way Allen is. He's going to continue to attack the defense regardless of score, down and distance and if he is having a terrible game up to that point.