Sammy Watkins' Rib

Was just sort of hoping we might have like a top 20 ranked offense this year. At this pace we should be top 5. Our offense might actually be better than our D. Allen doing his best to keep Wilson from winning that elusive MVP.

One thing I've always thought about the Allen pick is that we were lucky John Elway screwed up twice before with big QB's before the 2018 draft. He swung and missed badly on both Osweiler and Lynch. I think that made him gun shy of picking yet another big in stature QB that was viewed as a project. The bummer for Elway is Allen is probably close to the exact QB Elway would mold if he could.

I take it game by game. But I like to PARTY after the big games.

Adams would make the Packers a lock to win IMO. But I still like GB here. I have them as one of my super picks. But not in my parlay. Saints rely on that crowd noise more than most teams IMO and that won't be there. Or will it now that they removed the dB limit? Not sure how that will work? But still Saints are likely without Thomas still right? And GB has a pretty good ground game. If I can get an elite QB on a good team getting a FG or more in a game that looks like a toss up I usually sway that way. Took KC and the points for that reason too.

I sprinkle in a little bit of everything each week. I start with a bankroll and bet a percentage each week. I actually have my bankroll divided up into four pots. "Super picks", Parlay's (3TM) , Teasers(6TM 6Pts) and All 256. My goal is to see which one works best for me. So far on the season I am 18-14-1 picking all the games. 6-6 on my Super Picks. 0-2 on the teasers and parlays. Last season was my first real season betting on games. I had massive beginners luck starting the season 14-2-1 (87%). I ended up finishing 48-32-3 (60%). I agree this week looks quite a bit tougher picking that the first two weeks. But then again I only managed 6-6 on my super picks the first two weeks. Cowherd is 4-6 I think in his Blazing 5. Just pick the upset of Cowherd. My parlay this week is Patriots -6.5, Colts -11.5 and Cowboys +5 Nice start. Do you know how you did last year? I usually favor the dogs but for some reason I didn't have a feeling on that one. Went Jags just because they were at +100 odds and Dolphins were at -120. Dolphins definitely look like a much more capable team now when you look at all three of the games they played. Their defense against the Pats was actually not bad when you see that Newton almost put up 400 on Seattle through the air.

He's inconsistent but his good games are not just good they are great. The other thing is the Giants are not babying him. He's thrown 40+ attempts in 7 out of his 14 career starts. And he's never throw less than 30 pass attempts in any of his 14 starts. Haskins on the other hand has never had 40 attempts in a game and has only had 3 games with over 30 pass attempts and none over 35.

I'm hoping he goes to the NFC just for competitive balance. The breakdown of good young QB's. AFC: Allen Mahomes Jackson Burrow- too early by looks like a great start Watson? - maybe his team will hold him back? or is he not as good as we first thought We have no idea about Tua. NFC: Murray- he looks special Wentz??? Goff??? The NFC is stacked in middle aged to old QB's.

Very nice. But $9.5 million? I guess they are not looking for a bidding war.

Hmm. Isn't there a poster on here with the handle The Ghost of Ralph Wilson?

Yeah. Why run for 5 ypc when you can throw for 8.5 per attempt at 70% completion and 0 INTs? Throwing the ball a lot used to be risky. In 2000 25 QB's threw 10 or more INTs and 11 threw 15 or more. Last year only 5 QBs threw 15 or more INTs and 15 threw 10 or more.

Yep. And what we will see, and have already seen, is the middle and floor get raised as the ceiling gets raised. 20-25 years ago a QB rating in the mid 90's probably meant you were top 5. Now a QB rating in the low 90's has you ranked somewhere between 12th and 19th depending on the year. The 2000 season though for example only had 7 QBs with a 90 QB rating or higher. What will happen is scoring will go up as overall QB play gets better. But we will still have bad QB's. Bad QB's will just be considered any QB with a rating less than 95. Crazy.

This is certainly a part of the reason why scoring is way up. But overall QB play being way up? I'm not sure. I could see lack of crowd noise being just as big a factor. It's probably like going through practice for some of these guys. They are dialed in. It's mostly holding penalties on the line that are drastically down right? Like 50%? That's certainly eliminating drive killing 2nd and long situations but QBs still have to make the throws to keep the chains moving.

Especially that Dolphins defense. In fact the Dolphins overall as a team actually might even be good, when we look at their 3 games now and the teams they have played and how they played them.

Very true. 79QBR is 19th ranked. What is is 32nd rank? 60 QBR? Basically it's likely a tight range of good QB play between 60 and 95. Which would be expected as you pointed out: NFL starting QB's should play well not under pressure. This is another excellent point. A fair comparison would be going back in history 10-20 years and seeing where all the 3rd year QB's ranked in these metrics.

My question is, that 79 QBR when not under pressure (19th rank in the league), wouldn't that include his two runs where he fumbled and lost the ball? I would imagine both those turnovers would have brought his QBR down quite a bit. If that's the case, I'm definitely not worried. But the other flaw here is where do Mahomes, Rodgers, Jackson and Wilson rank in QBR when not pressured compared to their overall QBR's? Do they also have decreases in ranking from their overall QBR? All four of these QB's and Allen excel in avoiding pressure and creating secondary reaction type plays. Guys like say Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady on the other hand might have higher QBR ranks when not under pressure but lower QBR ranks overall. I'm sure the stats is out there somewhere but until we have it, for all we know guys like Cousins (well probably not this year) or Goff might have the highest QBR "not under pressure". And if that is the case, I don't really see the value. Just give me total QBR because a QB is going to be under pressure at some point of every game.

This must be SAR from JetNation

Honestly I was thinking of starting a similar thread before the season started. I'm sure it's not a very popular opinion but I think the case can be made. If ever their was a player that exhibited the fun for the game, the dedication, determination, the humility the sacrifice etc. you can go on and on, it's Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's not just been with 8 teams. He's started a significant number of games for all 8 teams. A record that won't come close to being matched. He'd likely have my vote if I had one. The only thing to consider is if this somehow opens the doors for more players who just stuck around for a long time but didn't put up great numbers and were even back-ups. But I think Fitzpatrick is a unique enough case I'd be willing to make a one time exception.

Just based on it being hard to imagine him having a game worst than that with the playmakers we have and the offense we've been running with Allen.

I already know Allen is a franchise QB. But this is basically the game that will tell us if he is a legit MVP candidate, top 5 QB in the league or maybe just a top 10 QB. Allen's hot start has come with a heaping tablespoon of "yeah but". Fair enough given the opponents. Very similar to Jackson's start in 2019. After Jackson's two great games to start 2019 he put up pedestrian numbers against KC on the road. 70 QB rating, 51 percent completion, 267 passing yards 0 tds 0 ints 1 rushing td 46 yards rushing. Those numbers look like Allen's current floor for a bad game which is a good improvement over games with a QB rating in the 50's or lower.

Raiders game is in October. With the way we are calling games and the receiving core we have it feels like 275 passing yards is the floor with Josh Allen. The top 6 in passing yards in the NFL all play in the NFC. Allen has a 150 yard lead on Phillip Rivers and 175 yard lead on Cam Newton. It seems highly doubtful he won't still be the leader in passing yards at the end of September. It will come down to TD's and interceptions to a lesser extent.. If Allen throws say 0 TD's this Sunday while one of the other leaders sitting at 5 or 6 TDs throws 4 I could see Allen being leap frogged. But Allen almost assuredly would still have the edge in passing yards.

Likely on his way to AFC Offensive Player of the Month.

If only I could hit on a parlay ticket like that.

I remember your post over the summer about that. Think it was yours anyway. I thought I dismissed that fear when I brought up that Turbitzky's success in 2018 was due in part to playing with a defense that lead the league in defensive points scored and take-a-ways by an unsustainable margin. So in 2019 when those take-a-ways and defensive TD's dried up it made it harder for the Bears offense to play with a big lead and dictate their game plan. And just more pressure on the offense all around too. That was not the case for the Bills defense. They were only slightly above average in take-a-ways last year and defensive TD's. Plus, the Bears offense got worst by losing players I believe while the Bills added to their offense. For the record I was an Anyone But Allen guy during the 2018 Draft. I did not have the stomach to attach ourselves to a player that was viewed as one of the biggest projects to come out in quite some time. Not after waiting over 20 years to find a replacement for Kelly. I remember just a day or two before the draft Dan Patrick started to say he was hearing the Bills really like Allen. I thought 1. BS. and 2. God i hope not. Baker was #1 for what it is worth. Followed by Darnold, Rosen and Jackson in that order. Glad to be wrong but I was a strong believer in Allen last year.

Most of us were. But a lot of us came around last year. What took you so long?

Yeah Collinsworth was do dumb the other night. People ask why should we care about PFF? Then on Sunday night he goes on about how Wilson would have gotten his MVP vote last year simply because PFF had him ranked #1. Wilson may have been deserving of a vote. That's not the point. Point is Collinsworth just admits he'll vote whoever is ranked #1 by PFF. Come on Chris. With all the games you watch you can't form your own opinion on an MVP?