Sammy Watkins' Rib

Were talking about our Bills here. I don't want anyone catching it even if they still got to push their way 8 yards into the end zone.

Defense is garbage today. They've forced a ton of 3rd downs because the Colts are commiting to the run. But every pass they need to make on third down they convert.

Can the D get one three and out today? If they can, that would go a long way in locking up this game.

Yeah. Stick with what has gotten us here.

I still like the Steelers D even with them missing a couple linebackers.

Just put together a TD drive on our first second half possession so I can breathe. I'm nervous about Roberts returning the kick. He's been great all year but part of me wants to just take the 25 yards if they kick it in the endzone.

So who had field position as being our demise in this game? Jesus Christ.

Quite the accomplishment for Lombardi as there were a lot of media members in the running for this one.

So last year Allen was a top five QB in both passer rating and first down percentage on 3rd and 10+ plays. The one concerning area is that Allen had 44 such attempts on 3rd and 10+, good for the 9th most 3rd and long attempts in the league. Fast forward to 2020 and Allen is still a leader in first down percentage. He is tied with a couple players at 40% (improved from 32% last year). I believe only Derek Carr had a higher first down percentage on 3rd and 10+ than Allen this year. Carr was 41.6%. For passer rating, Allen's 106.6 rating was good enough for 5th highest among all starting QB's. And the attempts plummeted from 44 in 2019 down to only 27 in 2020 which was low enough to rank him tied with Lamar Jackson for second fewest attempts behind Carr's league low 24. So in 2020 we saw the best of both worlds. The Bills and Allen were forced into a league low number of 3rd and 10+ plays. At the same time Allen remained a league leader in first down percentage and passer rating, ranking second and fifth in the league respectively. Some notable players in comparison: Josh Allen: 40.7% 1st down % 106.6 passer rating 27 Attempts Aaron Rodgers: 33.3% 1st down % 89.1 passer rating 36 Attempts Patrick Mahomes: 25.6% 1st down % 86.4 passer rating 39 Attempts (Mahomes lead the league last year with a 122.8 rating) Phillip Rivers: 12.5% 1st down % 74.5 passer rating 40 Attempts Stathead: 3rd and 10+ passing statistics

Not sure about the 0 INTs but if Allen does play 4 games, then honestly I think he has at least 14 TD's albeit a couple could be rushing too.

Allen. But more specifically his legs. I think he takes some easy runs with the Colts playing coverage and goes for 50+ yards on the ground. Hughes. Strip sack.

This. And this is why some executives would take Allen over Mahomes. Mahomes is great without question. He's been doing it for three straight years now. But it also looks like he has maxed out his potential. That's okay because his current plateau is high. But no question Allen's ceiling has not yet been identified. I look back at the end of the season still for Allen too. Final three games Allen put up 11 TD's to 1 turn over in 2.5 games. And if we dive deeper, Allen threw 5 pass attempts combined in the 4th quarters of the Denver and New England blowouts. He went 4/5 for a TD. In other words, you can make a strong argument that Allen played a tick over 8 quarters of the final 12 quarters of the 2020 season and still put up 11 TD's. Dive deeper and Allen had one TD called back on penalties and one dropped in the end zone not once but twice on the same series? It could have been 13 TDs in just a tick over 8 quarters. It's not hyperbole to say Allen could have finished the season with 16 TD's in his final three games. I'm nervous about every Bills playoff game but in the back of my mind I am aware of the possibility that Allen and the Bills can have a postseason run that the league has never seen before. One for the record books and that is based on the insane amount of TD's they put up in the last three regular season games. Games that Allen basically only played or had his foot on the petal for about 40 minutes of a 60 minute game on average.

Mahomes vs. Allen growth throughout their career* Mahomes: 2018 Games 2-9 115.3 rating 2018 Games 10-17 112.4 rating 2019 Games 18-24 113.1 rating 2019 Games 25-31 97.6 rating 2020 Games 32-39 115.0 rating 2020 Games 40-46 101.9 rating Allen: 2018 Games 1-6 61.8 rating 2018 Games 7-12 72.6 rating 2019 Games 13-20 82.9 rating 2019 Games 21-27 88.8 rating 2020 Games 29-36 102.4 rating 2020 Games 40-46 111.6 rating 2021 ??? *excluded Mahomes first career game since it was only one start at the end of the 2017 season *excluded the final game of the season for Allen in 2019 because he only played one series Cowherd touched on this topic this morning on his show. Mahomes has consistently been great from the start. He sat and learned behind a good veteran QB his first year. His first year starting Mahomes was throwing to Kelce and Tyreek Hill and had a proven offensive genius designing and calling plays. Hill and Kelce were already proven all-pro caliber players before Mahomes became the starter. Allen was forced into starting and did not have a proven veteran QB to learn behind. His mentor was Nathan Peterman for the first half of the season for crying out loud. Allen was throwing to receivers who are either not currently in the NFL or not starting for any teams since the 2018 season. Allen has a good coaching staff around him now but Allen and the staff had to build their offensive identity over the last three years. Allen hasn't yet had the same peaks in passer rating that Mahomes has achieved several times through his career already but if we look at Allen's trend, it's not hard to imagine that at some point next year, either the first half of the season, second half of the season or even both, Allen will probably top his career high 111.6 passer rating.

Yeah he really fell off in the second half of the season. These are his projected 16 game averages for the first half of the season vs second half of the season: First 8 games: 86 rec 1576 yards 16 TDs 98.5 ypg Last 8 games: 80 rec 1030 yards 4 TDs 64.4 ypg He was running away with the first team all-pro through the first half of the season.

Odd change this year to the roster. Last year the AP all pro team had a flex position on both the 1st and 2nd teams. And only two WR spots on both the 1st and 2nd teams. The 2020 team they got rid of the flex spot and named three WR's for both the 1st and 2nd team (five for the 2nd team because three receivers tied with 1 vote each for the third spot on the second team). And the 2019 team the Flex player named for both the first and second team was also the RB named for that same team (McCaffery and Henry). Glad they changed it this year as having the same player seems kind of dumb.

Metcalf only 1 vote after the start to the season he had? Dude really fell off a cliff in the second half I guess.

One comment. Fourth paragraph, it's funny to me as a native California that people outside of California don't realize the difference between the Central Valley and the images of Southern California and the Bay Area in their head. The Central Valley IS Buffalo just with complete opposite weather extremes and a majority Hispanic population.

Interesting. For me it was that Miami game that was nearly won on the final play. He pretty much showed what he was all about in that game.

I am too but only in the sense that I don't want the Bills to be one and done. Doesn't have anything to do with the opponent itself. The season has already been a huge success no matter what happens Saturday. But please just win this game and then I can take a deep breath for the remaining games and relax. Guarantee the narrative on Allen and the Bills is going to be unbearable if they don't win a playoff game this year.

37 on the Wonderlic

Allen keeps improving with every half season split. He's been doing it since he came into the league. I'm actually really interested if a QB has ever improved his passer rating for 5 straight splits since entering the league. He'll have his work cut out for him to start the 2021 season to keep the trend going. 2018- Games 1-6: 61.8 2018- Games 7-12: 72.6 2019- Games 1-8: 82.9 2019- Games 9-15: 88.8 2020- Games 1-8: 102.4 2020- Games 9-16: 111.6

Actually Watson finished ahead of both.

Just how bad is that Titans D though? But yeah I rather get revenge on them in the 2nd or 3rd round.

I'm thinking the dude could end up better than Mahomes. And that's actually not a crazy thought at this point.

501 points scored is a new team record. Came in 14 points shy of breaking the record of 458 set in 1991. Obliterated the record.