Sammy Watkins' Rib

Keep in mind we are talking about 15-20 year careers. A lot can change in terms of personnel. Heck, Brady went like 10 years without a super bowl win. I totally agree that you basically are what your stats and achievements say you are. It's the only way you can compare players. But at the same time I am not naïve enough to not notice one dude is in possibly the best situation we have ever seen in the history of the league. That alone is what keeps this whole conversation a debate. If it were Allen that had the stacked team and Mahomes was still getting over on him and everyone else it would be a slam-dunk case closed debate that basically nobody will ever catch Mahomes and it's only a matter of time before Mahomes catches Brady. But the Chiefs will have to replace Hill and Kelce eventually. The really scary thing though is the Chiefs still have Reid. Has the guy ever not taken any QB and not gotten the very best out of them?

It wouldn't have been a guarantee they beat the Rams. Far from it. 50/50 probably. Since Kupp was out maybe 60/40 in favor of the Chiefs?

You simply can't make a fair comparison of the two given one has far superior weapons and a coach with a HOF track record as an offensive mastermind. I'm very confident you switch both QB's the Bills still lose the AFC title game. That said, the NFL is a results oriented business and you can't argue with Mahomes results so he gets the nod until Allen and the Bills find a way to get it done in the postseason. That said, it's certainly not unreasonable for some GM's to consider Allen the better prospect. But Mahomes is the safest and at worst his ceiling is just a tad below Allen's. We should all be encouraged by the fact that on que, Allen delivered big time this season as a bona fide top 5 QB in the league in his very first season with a legitimate all-pro WR. At the same time it's going to be a tough road for the Bills as long as the Chiefs have Hill and Kelce to go along with Mahomes.

Certainly looks like Feliciano punched him first. FWIW, I think it's all a bunch to do about nothing. Glad neither player was ejected.

For the most part. I think we have seen the best season from him. But I think he and the Ravens will always be a threat to win a Super Bowl. Winning 11+ games every year is half the battle just to give yourself a shot.

That's true.

I've been considering Carr the Kirk Cousins of the AFC for a couple years now. Nice players but they don't seem to show up in big moments or for big games.

His passing numbers just weren't sustainable. Especially in terms of TD%. He was i think the only QB ever, or maybe Peyton did it once, to have over 30 or 35 TD's along with a 9.0+ TD%. He had like three games where he had 5 passing TD's on about 20 passing attempts. I just checked the stats from this last season, and Rodgers hit the 9.0+ TD% mark with 48 TD's. So I think that is three times in NFL history it has happened now. Rodgers might have two of those seasons unless the other is Peyton. Can't recall. Mind you, Jackson's TD% of 6.9% this last year is still really good in terms of well above league average. But it is likely more along the lines of what we should expect out of him moving forward. Since they simply do not throw the ball as much, he should have a higher than league average TD% for his career. I think he is still a very effective rusher though. YPA dropping from 6.9 to 6.3 isn't very significant. It also looked like the entire team including Lamar started to run the ball back to their 2019 form in the second half of the season. That said, they had a cupcake schedule in 2020. Not sure what their 2021 schedule is but I'd be shocked if it isn't considerably tougher.

And given the talent on this team we will have at least a couple more AFCCG losses in the coming 10 years. Hopefully a couple wins too but yes, we will need to learn to accept the losses.

Winston threw two picks in 1:00 of game time last year against the Texans. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201912210tam.htm#all_pbp First Quarter 14:19 13:19 Still thinking there has to be one that's under 20 seconds of game time though.

2017 is also pretty high up there for me. Thought they were easily the worst team of the Tyrod/Whaley era, yet they somehow were the team to break the drought. On the quoted, I wouldn't be shocked if the record is less than 10 seconds. Pick six, and then very next pass attempt is another pick. In fact, did Jameis WInston have a sequence close to this last year? That was 2016.

I don't think the injury had as big an impact on Allen's poor production in the first game as most make it out. Chiefs personnel simply match's up perfectly with how the Bills offense wants to attack defenses. That Zerovolt's guy was on here warning us all week about it. I think he was 100% right. The way to attack the chiefs D is with shorter routes to the RB's and TE's but that's not the way our offense is designed. On the defensive side, they basically chose what they wanted to do in each game and did it with great success each time. In the AFCCG rather than run the ball against our softer defense they just threw it underneath. That was a lot more successful for them in terms of the scoreboard.

If Watson is dealt, landing in Las Vegas over the Jets or Fins would certainly be a homerun for us. I'd be surprised if Watson isn't pushing for a team in the NFC though. The Bills and Chiefs look like they are going to be top dogs in the conference for a longtime with their QB's. And then you got guys like Herbert and Jackson who will give teams headaches. And who knows about Lawerence. Much smoother sailing long-term in the NFC.

And I totally forgot about Vick's unreal season under Reid too.

Yep. Reason why it could benefit the Bills to pay for a premium back up QB. But right now the priority needs to be building a starting roster capable of beating the Chiefs. After two games this year we really are not close.

I'm all for Mitch or Darnold. Problem is I think we are a year or two away. Some teams still will see some promise in them as a potential starter. Need them to completely bust and cement themselves at a back up QB salary first. Of course both these guys are likely going to command top dollar in the back up QB market. So we would have to come to terms with that. But yeah, I'm not that confident in Barkley should we need to call on him when the stakes are high.

Bills O-line wasn't that good Josh's first two years. He had a sack rate around 8 percent for those first two years. Was it all the lines fault? Josh's fault? Or somewhere in between? All I am saying is the same thing is true of pretty much every QB. At the end of the day the #'s are what they are and they show that Watson has been sacked at a high rate for his entire career. Same thing with Wilson. His entire career a sack rate greater than 7%. Had he had bad lines at times? I'm sure he has. Has the line been totally at fault for his entire career? No. Carries per game or season? Not sure how that is totally relevant. Vast majority of the time Allen rolled out of the pocket this year he threw the ball. With great success often. Same thing for Mahomes. And by now way am I saying Watson and Wilson are statues in the pocket. I am staying they stay in the pocket more than Allen or Mahomes but probably less than league average. And when they are in the pocket under pressure they move around a lot. They are like Houdini in the pocket. Sometimes they avoid the sack, sometimes they don't. Bottom-line, eventually you are what your stats say you are until they change.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I don't see how anyone can definitively say it is all the lines fault or even divvy out some sort of percentage of blame. I'm guessing the truth is somewhere closer to the middle. I think Josh took a lot of sacks his first two years because 1. the line and skill players around him were not as good and 2. he became a better QB. better at recognizing pressure, avoiding pressure etc. Also, in the case of Mahomes and Allen, I think they bail out of the pocket a lot more. Rolling right or left or back pedaling. End result is avoiding more sacks. When I watch Wilson and Watson, they don't do this as often is my impression. They like to hang in the pocket more often. This isn't necessarily a bad thing or a deal breaker. Both QB's are still extremely efficient. But I could see how it leads to more sacks.

Nobody hear is denying that Mahomes isn't great. I don't think. And yes, every great QB needs great weapons. Allen is proof of this. Diggs absolutely helped Allen get to that elite top 5 QB level. It's tricky to compare QB's to each other when their situations are so vastly different. Smith is brought up in this discussion simply as another tool to explain the difference in situation. It's a fact that Smith had a career year with the same key guys that Mahomes also had a career year with the following year. Has Mahomes peaked? Have we seen the best of Mahomes? Probably not. But so far that is true. It's unlikely he will have better weapons then he has had the last three years but I'd still guess he'll likely eventually have a better season than his 2018 season. Of course even that could be debated. Will that mean a better QBR? Better passer rating? More TD's? More yards? Etc. Looking at Allen, we clearly see a QB that has not peaked. We see at least more opportunity for the skill position players to get better compared to the Chiefs. And really just a consistent growth out of Allen that should lead us to believe the best is yet to come. Mahomes: 2018 Games 2-9 115.3 rating 2018 Games 10-17 112.4 rating 2019 Games 18-24 113.1 rating 2019 Games 25-31 97.6 rating 2020 Games 32-39 115.0 rating 2020 Games 40-46 101.9 rating Allen: 2018 Games 1-6 61.8 rating 2018 Games 7-12 72.6 rating 2019 Games 13-20 82.9 rating 2019 Games 21-27 88.8 rating 2020 Games 29-36 102.4 rating 2020 Games 40-46 111.6 rating 2021 ???

It's great you bring this up Zerovoltz. It's just another area where both Mahomes and Allen set themselves apart from their peers. I have not dug into Allen's efficiency's on 3rd and 15+, so I don't know what those numbers are, but I have started two threads in the past on Allen's efficiency's on 3rd and 10+. Allen has been among the leagues best in those situations for two straight seasons. 2020 Stats: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230202-allen-once-again-leading-the-lead-in-3rd-and-10/ 2019 Stats: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/221842-josh-allen-leading-the-way-on-3rd-and-10/

Expanding on this to include Allen. Allen threw 37 TD's this year. I think we all agree he doesn't have two receiving threats on the same level as #87 and #10 of the Chiefs. He does have one in Diggs. Of Allen's 37 passing TD's 29 of them were to players other than Diggs. That's pretty similar to the 28 that Mahomes threw to players other than Kelce and Hill. Mahomes threw an average of 11 each to Kecle and Hill. Let's say Allen has a second receiver on their skill level. I'll be conservative and say they add 8 more TD's to Allen's total since Diggs only totaled 8 himself rather than the 22 that Kelce and Hill combined for. That would put Allen at 45 passing TD's + 9 Rushing/Receiving for a total 54 total TD's which would be just shy of the all-time record and only behind Peyton and maybe Brady? Of course all this is hypothetical, could be lower or higher. What I do no, is Allen does have the skill and talent to put up these numbers. He's not a finished product yet but we do already see the ridiculous eye popping numbers. The way he started and finished the season showed us that. He just needs a little more consistency. As Zerovolts put it in another thread, and paraphrasing, in each QB's first year starting Mahomes took over a Ferrari and drove it like an elite formula one race car driver. Allen took over a beater commuter car and drove it like a crazy taxi car driver. Move to year three for Allen and he upgrades to a Corvette and what do you know, he has an MVP level season. He's still not quite driving that Ferrari but he's doing a hell of a job with his new Corvette.

He's been sack prone his entire career then. You can't put it 100% on the line. It's also his style of play.

I don't deny Mahomes is elite. But I also know he's had arguably the best offensive personnel AND play caller/designer since he came into the league. Is it wrong to admit both?

#87 and #10 And Andy Reid has pretty much always had good QB's and offenses. He made McNabb a star. Alex Smith had a career year with Reid, Kelce and Hill. Yes, Mahomes is talented in his own right but he's been eating from a golden plate since day 1.

On the bright side we should be drafting in the 25-32 range for the foreseeable future. I think what Beane will want to do is make sure he gets picks back in return. As you say, being up against the cap soon we will need players to fill the roster for cheap. So we give up say a future first and third round pick but get in return 4th and 5th round picks. At least we still have the ability to still pick up two future players on cheap contracts.