Sammy Watkins' Rib

It's all about match ups. Browns match up really well with the Chiefs. Maybe not as much with the Ravens and Bills. Titans are definitely a team that should not be slept on either though.

I think the dust will ultimately settle on this before the season starts. I believe Beasley is making his opinion strongly know now in trying to actually get rules changed. Whether he succeeds or not ultimately I expect he will do what is necessary to dress on Sundays. On a side note, I won't be shocked if Allen ends up not getting the vaccine. But if that is the case Allen will likely follow protocols and I think if Allen does it will help open Beasley's eyes in doing the same.

Probably not a dark horse but I think Sanders racks up somewhere between 900 and 1,100 yards and has a bit of a resurgence season. Diggs probably drops down to around 1200 yards with our WR corps being more well rounded this year with additional improvement from Davis and McKenzie as well. Beasely's production probably drops down to around 600 yards.

Maybe. But even then Big Ben, Peyton, and Eli combined for 7 Lombardi's going up against the GOAT coach and GOAT QB. He walks like he has a load in his pants too. I have to say though he is surprisingly athletic/quick for a guy who really isn't that quick if that makes sense. He seems to have very good instincts as a runner and it enables him to get the every yard available. Of course it helps too that I'm sure he's seeing the name plates of the entire secondary too when he drops back.

2001 - 2013 Bills came in at #48. Not very high on the list at all. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/anti-dynasty-rankings-41-50-brady-saves-bucs

Going strictly by the point system it looks like they have them ranked around #30 with 46 anti-dynasty points. They have the Bills 2014 winning season as ending the anti-dynasty. They have the 67-72 teams ranked worse totaling 55 anti-dynasty points. Those teams finished last in the league twice out of a six year run.

Scrolled threw and didn't see it mentioned but the first drive that came to mind for me was actually a drive early in a game that we loss. Allen willed us to a TD to tie up the game early 7-7 against Tennessee. We all know, on our very first possession Allen throws an INT, no fault of his, as it bounces off of Roberts hands or facemask. Sets up the Titans for the easy TD. On the next possession Allen converts a 3rd and 13 through the air, a 3rd and 7 with his legs, throws a TD on 3rd and 10 to Gabe Davis that gets called back, next play he converts a 3rd and 15 and then ultimately we finish with a TD to McKenzie. And in between all those conversions, there are at least two dropped passes. One from Knox and one from Diggs. The o-line opened up holes for the RB's that gave them a total of -2 yards rushing on 3 carries. The only thing that was missing on this drive was a false start or hold by a lineman. But plenty of those came later in the game as I recall. But I remember watching live and thinking to myself, "man that was a heck of a drive by Allen where so many things were not going right and after a terrible start, he really willed us to a TD". But neither side of the ball was ready to play that day which was unfortunate because I think Allen was ready to go.

That's why I told the OP his below average ranking for 2019 is justified. Did you skip over that post?

When talking GOAT you definitely have to take into account that players level of play relative to their peers IMO. There is certainly a good chance that guys like Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers and Allen will have far higher career passer ratings and yardage totals (especially with 17 games now) then the Brady's and Peyton's. But that won't automatically mean they are the new GOAT should they win 4-5 rings. Rodgers is the most efficient passer ever right? Or maybe Mahomes? But neither played as a rookie. And Rodgers started playing when the game had changed significantly in favor of passing numbers over the early 2000's and Mahomes and Allen started playing after the game had yet again changed in favor of passing numbers. It feels like no question any young QB today will have to either blow Brady's total numbers out of the water (tough task with Brady still playing to God knows when?) or reach 8 rings. Any QB that can match or top those numbers will certainly be worthy of the GOAT status.

I agree. Which is why earlier in the thread i compared Mahomes vs. Allen to Brady vs. Peyton as evidence that the head to head match up does not mean Mahomes is better than Allen. Early in both their careers Peyton was the better QB despite the losses to New England. But that was early in their careers. Brady has since easily eclipsed Peyton not just on longevity but by also proving that his highs can be just as high as Peyton's. Brady has three season of +110 passer ratings to only 2 for Peyton. 10 years ago Brady was a 33 year old QB in his prime. He hasn't gotten better but he also hasn't gotten much worse. And he was already playing at Peyton's level at age 33 so it's not like he needed to get better. His longevity also stands out. He even outlasted Drew Brees by at least 3 years and counting. What's the saying? Availability is the best ability? No QB has been more available than Brady as his career continues to tick on and he plays at a high level.

I don't know. Brady has the total package going right now. Rings, conference championships, stats, longevity, efficiency etc. He'll be hard to beat.

Yep. He also cut his fumbles down from 10 in games 1-8 to to only 4 in games 9-16. The reduction in fumbles would have raised his QBR quite a bit. His ypc also increased about a full yard in the second half of 2019 as well. Remember how that season started against the Jets. Allen was doing everything right in that game except he had like 4 turnovers in the first half. Most all of them fluky type of turnovers too. And then against New England the first go around he just made some terrible decisions and threw 3 INTs on balls that should have never been thrown. That first New England game in 2019 was probably the last truly bad game Allen has had.

Most likely true. He would have needed Mahomes 2019 line against the Bucs just as Mahomes needed that line. Even then though didn't appear the Chiefs had an answer for Gronk and Fournette. As for the 49ers. That was Mahomes 3rd year. 3rd year Allen was definitely good enough to hang with that 2019 49ers team.

Same here. If it was a fan vote no way Allen would have sniffed the top 100 last year. Will be interesting to see where he lands among his peers this year.

Just going off the raw numbers for the season Allen was definitely below average. Both for passer rating and QBR. And that is about all we have to go off of. Of course Allen like usual, improved greatly from the first half of the season to the second half. I would venture a guess that just taking his second half splits he was essentially around league average for the second half. But 2019, the big picture was that Allen was greatly improved over his rookie year which is what you are looking for in your young QB. Allen could have taken a similar sized jump from 2019 to 2020 and we would have been pleased with the progress and his trajectory. But of course Allen took a jump so massive the league had never really seen it before.

Mahomes won the super bowl in his third season. Josh's third season was 2020. I agree Josh was not the same QB in 18-19. But he was on the same level as Mahomes in his third year which was the year Mahomes won the super bowl. That's way I say yes, I could imagine Allen winning the Super Bowl and MVP in his third season if the roles were reversed.

Not to mention as great as both can be it's unlikely either ever eclipse Brady.

Yep. I heard that same segment.

OBJ's downfall has been #1 injuries and #2 Cleveland going heavy in the running game. Looking at his per game production, outside of 2020, he has still been a dominant receiver when on the field. Problem is he has only played in 36 out of 64 games over the past 4 seasons. And since getting to Cleveland his production has declined greatly as Cleveland incorporates more of a running game over league average. Will be interesting to see how many HOF'ers can come out of the class. No locks yet but definitely some guys with some good starts. For some reason I think Landry has a better shot then Evans. I just don't know that Evans is a guy who will ultimately play long enough. I could see his body starting to break down this year or next. Landry on the other hand looks like a type who could have a very long career. Definitely love that 1996 class.

I would say there is zero percent chance either QB gets worst in their self ability to actually be a good QB. In fact, both should get better over the immediate years to come. But as we know, the NFL is the ultimate team sport. A QB's stats and win/loss record are heavily dependent on supporting cast. So any assumed probabilities of a QB becoming "worse" or "better" should be looked at through that lens. Average out Mahomes supporting cast over his first three years starting. It would grade out extremely high. Then say, okay, is it more likely, less likely or about likely the next 5 years that his supporting cast grades the same, worse or higher. Then do the same for Allen over his first three years starting. IMO, that is the only way to really make a somewhat educated guess on projections for either player. But again, I expect both QB's simply as an individual player to be better over the next 5 years. Haha. Good point. What luck. It's like we could have had Jordan but hey it's okay we drafted Lebron the next year.

At first glance I would agree. But when thinking about it I do see a legit path where Allen does win an MVP and Super Bowl within his first two years starting with the Chiefs as Mahomes did. Mahomes won his Super Bowl in his 3rd year. Allen's 3rd year was his breakout season. Talent wise we know the skill level would have been there for Allen. So then the question is how is the rest of the team around him? Assuming all is the same it seems more likely than not that Allen and the Chiefs would be strong candidates for a Super Bowl run.

Not that it matters what others around the league think, but I think you are overestimating how those around the league, especially if we are talking fans, feel about Allen. Some would have him #2 but I don't think he would be in the majority. Heck, an equal amount would probably have guys like Burrow and Herbert ahead of Allen if they are looking at it in terms of who would you take for the future. I think when it comes to Allen I think many around the league greatly underrated him off his first two seasons and it is making it hard for them to truly come around to him. Many looked at his first year starting as a disaster when part of the reality was that he put up one of the most dominant 6 game stretches the NFL had ever seen from a QB when he came back from his injury. And that is not to mention the disaster of a supporting cast he had at the skill positions. Now if we are talking general managers and some of the smarter analysts out there like Chris Simms I would expect Allen to be #2 in the majority of those conversations.

Seems we will never agree so maybe this will be my last post on the matter. The difference between the two over the entire regular season is miniscule. It's truly splitting hairs. Obviously many thought the same. Allen being 2nd in MVP voting, and the two splitting the vote for 2nd team all-pro. You may not see the evidence but certainly some did in 2020. I don't understand the head to head argument. They're not playing each other on the field. Tannehill absolutely smoked the Bills last season the week before in a blow out victory. But that says nothing to Tannehill being on the same level as Allen. And had the Bills drawn the Titans instead of the Ravens or Colts in the playoffs who knows maybe the Titans prevail again. Titans were actually the team i feared most as a possible round 1 or 2 match up because their offense is so well rounded and Tannehill can make enough plays with is legs as well to really break the back of a defense. As Zerovoltz has pointed out to us numerous times, when it comes to Bills vs. Chiefs it's simply a bad match up of our offensive strength against their defensive strength. Our WR centric offense and lack of a dominant running game plays directly into the Chiefs defensive strength.

I don't disagree when looking at the entire careers. Mahomes is absolutely the safer bet when looking at all three years of each player starting. But as I said, it's another way to look at the debate. Looking at ONLY 2020 for both players does seem to make more sense in a debate of the here and now and into the future. Particularly with Allen where 2018 just feels completely irrelevant and there's not an apples to apples comparison because Mahomes didn't play his rookie year and started out the gate with two future HOF level talents. Head to head? Is that relevant in what is the ultimate team sport? For years Peyton was the best QB in the game despite Brady and the Patriots getting the better of him year after year. But you couldn't find anyone outside of New England that would say Brady was better than Peyton. Not until at least 2007 and really, probably even later like 2011. The losses to KC and the offenses below average production in both games is in large part due to scheme. Bills offense is entirely too WR centric to match up well against the Chiefs defense. If that doesn't change there's a very good chance the Bills and Allen will face the same fate next year against the Chiefs when we play them. That won't mean at all that Allen can't end up having again the better MVP season like he had last year.

That is true. But I don't think it is hard to see why Allen has such a high trajectory or ceiling. He's starting to make a lot of the throws and plays Mahomes makes and at Mahomes level efficiency. And on top of that he's a couple inches taller, 20-30 pounds heavier and can run like Cam Newton. It's certainly not just Bills fans that see his high ceiling either. Greg Cosell, Chris Simms, Jordan Palmer are a few others who see it as well.