Sammy Watkins' Rib

He's going to run less and less pretty much every year. We are already seeing it. It's a combination of him getting better as a passer (reading the field), knowing he should take care of himself and throw it rather than run, and eventually age limiting his running ability. If there is a prop for Josh Allen rushing yards this year I would hammer the under. But in the postseason take the over because when the stakes are raised he's still going to run more than his season average like we saw in this last postseason.

His take on MVP seems off to me. At least in terms of passing yards. I know the Rams lost Cam Akers but it seems to me McVay offenses like a healthy dose of a running game. He loves play action. I don't see Stafford leading the league in passing. Where as we already know Daboll is not afraid to call 20 straight passing plays. I think if any QB in a 17 game season threatens the 6,000 yard mark this year it will be Allen. I do like both Allen and Stafford as front runners for MVP this year.

I'm wondering if offensively we have caught them this year. It depends largely I think of Davis and Sanders. Previous years the duo of Kelce and Hill was just too much to compete with. Even last year with Diggs cancelling out Hill, Kelce was always the trump card. This year I think if Sanders and Davis combined both reach their potential in this offense with Beasley still mostly being Beasley I think we finally have caught up to the Chiefs offense. But it essentially relies on three players balling out to match one.

I want to obliterate the passing attempt and yardage records.

There really was a strong case for him to be MVP last year over Rodgers. Rodgers was great as usual. Second highest passer rating of all time nearly besting his own record. But the Packers had a cream puff schedule only playing 4 games all year against winning teams. Going 2-2. Bills played 7 such games going 5-2. The hail murray really hurt Allen's chances at MVP. Had the last image of that game been Allen's game winning pass to Diggs it would have been talked about all week. Also would have given the Bills a better record on the year at 14-2 instead of the Bills and Packers being tied at 13-3. The other argument for Allen of course, and this is probably the main argument, is that Allen and the passing game was the Bills offense. Bills had no running game where as the Packers had one of the leagues best running games that could take pressure off of Rodgers and the passing offense. Oh well. Is what it is. In the end it was nice to see Allen get some respect netting 4 votes to Mahomes 2. I have no doubt Allen will win at least one MVP in his career and very likely 2 or more. It's just frustrating when you hear talking heads reference Lamar being better simply because he has the MVP hardware already and Allen does not. "You take a mortal man And put him in control Watch him become a god"

Nice practical vehicle.

Watkins has been paid and continues to be paid based on his potential. That's reasonable considering he was so great in college and even his first couple of seasons in Buffalo were good / promising. But if we look at his actual production since leaving the Bills I don't think it is Bills fans being bias in thinking he has been below average. His four year averages since 2017 suggest he has put up below average production at the position for a starting #1 or #2 WR. Since 2017 per season averages: Sammy Watkins: 42 receptions 551 yards 4 TD's 45 YPG Emmanuel Sanders: 61 receptions 754 yards 4 TD's 55YPG Going off the 2020 receiving yardage leaders, Sanders 754 receiving yardage average would rank him #43, or a just slightly above average #2 receiver if we say that the receiver ranked #48 would be exactly your average #2 receiver. Meanwhile for Watkins, his 551 yard average would have him ranked #65 for all WR's. Either not good enough to be a #2 WR or the leagues best #3 WR depending on if one is a half glass full or empty kind of person. Watkins biggest problem continues to be his health but even when on the field he's only produced 45 ypg to Sanders 55 ypg. Bottom line is Watkins has been a below average receiver due to both injury and performance when healthy when looking at the production of the top 64 WR's.

Davis.

Nope.

I think Josh is going to spread the ball out a ton this year so a 1000 all purpose yards is possible for Singletary. I don't think he will sniff 1000 rushing yards though. Moss is going to get some carries as well and this team might lead the league in pass attempts. Is Davis being drafted in fantasy leagues? I like him to have 1000 yards this year.

Wow. I can't believe Belicheck and the Patriots actually lost 6 of these games.

Would love to see it. Really looking forward to the Dolphins vs. Patriots week one game. Somebody's got to lose! Tua has some pretty good skill players now but I still think he is going to struggle against the Patriots D. Even without Gilmore. As for Mac Jones. Freaking Dolphins D better not let him have a decent game. New England will probably just run it anyway though. Mac will have like 18-20 pass attempts.

Exactly. Let's try putting Mitch on the PS and see how that works out.

Beat up in January? You mean against KC? What was the excuse in October week 6? Clearly not beat up then. I don't think we can draw conclusions other than KC was a bad match up for us last year. Will doubling down on the WR centric offense get us over the top this year? I have my doubts but at the same time I think the offense is going to be better than last year so there is a chance it could be enough to put us over the top. But for every team other than KC I think we will have success more often than not. They didn't struggle in January against the Colts and that included starting at their own 6 yard line for an entire half due to poor special teams. Can't really draw any conclusions in the Baltimore game due to the high winds conditions. I seriously doubt we use many 5 WR sets if any. Our most common set will still be 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 RB. What I am most curious to see is what Davis snap count will be. He saw a lot of snaps last year due to Brown's lack of availability. I think Davis has developed into an every down receiver which means either Beasley or Sanders are going to be on the sidelines a lot if we run majority 3 WR sets. How often will Daboll want to get all four on the field? I think all six receivers we will likely carry on game days, Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie and Kumerow can play and should play meaningful snaps this year. I look for Diggs numbers to be way down this year because Josh is going to spread the ball around a lot. No reason why Beasley and Sanders shouldn't split reps and Kumerow can spell Davis from time to time. And McKenzie kind of being a wild card to come in on any down. I also think they want to try and get Singletary involved more in the passing game. So what I am getting at is that if we spread the ball around as much as i think we will this year using different personnel then I think all of the receivers will hopefully be in better health come January. But even better, we won't be so reliant on two guys (Diggs and Beasley) like we were last year. Everyone will have reps and the ability to gain meaningful yards in January should someone be forced out with injury.

If Allen wasn’t our QB I might be concerned about dink and dunk. But since Allen’s natural instinct is to take what he wants rather than take what is given to him, I’m not too concerned about not continuing to make the defenses defend the entire field. What I am concerned about is the chiefs defense is built to stop the Bills passing game. RB’s and TE’s is how you move the ball on them. But we seem to be doubling down on the WR centric offense. Hopefully Sanders and the growth of the younger less experienced receivers is enough to overcome last year’s failures against the Chiefs specifically.

Nah. We just didn't match up well with the Chiefs. The week six game was just as bad and without those excuses. Hopefully this year will be different. It's interesting, it is looking like Beane and the coaching staff have decided to go all in even further with the WR centric offense. This was a bad match up against the Chiefs, so the question is will the addition of Sanders and an improved Davis and McKenzie be enough to swing the match up in our favor?

Honestly, the embarrassment of riches we have at the receiver position and Allen's continued development is going to make it really interesting as to who actually ends up leading the the team in receptions and receiving yards. I would not be surprised at all if Davis squeaks out the lead in receiving yards. And if that happens, look out. Davis 1250 yards. Diggs 1200 yards. Beasley 950 yards. Sanders 800 yards. It will be interesting to see who is on the field the majority of time in 2, 3 and 4 receiver sets.

Probably a moot point because I see a heavy rotation between Hughes, Rousseau and AJE but you have AJE starting over Rousseau? Yesterday, the starting ends were Hughes and Rousseau.

maybe at least have him shadow Daboll in the booth? See if they are on the same page? Could be something they already do. But not sure if Dorsey has been in the booth. He might be in the sideline with Allen.

Would be wise to let Dorsey get some burn calling a couple games this year.

He’s looked fantastic this pre-season and that’s coming off a nice rookie season where he could have easily lead the team in receiving TD’s if it were not for two pre-snap illegal procedure penalties. we have an embarrassment of riches at the WR group. Similar to Tampa Bay. Our guys are more precise route runners though where as guys like Godwin and Evans are more physically gifted. I would caution anyone looking to draft Diggs early in fantasy to maybe not do so this year. Diggs will likely lead us in receiving again but I don’t expect him to come close to 1500 yards and 120 receptions. I could see Davis, Beasley and Sanders all going over 60 receptions which will cut into Diggs share. I also see the TE and RB groups combined each combining for a greater number of receptions this year. On the flip side I really hope Daboll calls more games this year like the Seattle game last year and let’s Josh throw is 50+ times. Smoke too me never seemed like a great route runner. The perception of Davis is that he doesn’t get enough separation, meaning maybe not a great route runner. This perception is probably due to his bigger and taller frame but I am not sure it is actually accurate. He seems to have been and is capable of running the entire route tree in our offense when I watch him.

It's not just our defense that has to perform better against the Chiefs. It's the offense as well. So far, I am encouraged that both sides of the ball have improved at least a little and potentially a great deal if the pass rush is really good.

Rousseau Allen T. Edmunds Metcalf Four of the recently drafted huge and physically gifted players at their positions. 3 out of the 4 drafted by Beane.

Even more happy to have Mitch as a viable back-up now too in that case. Assuming Mitch himself is vaccinated.

I think the key is that our offense is light years ahead of Chicago's offense that he has played with the last few seasons. From o-line pass protection to receiving threats. That's not to mention as well Daboll is probably a much better x's and o's play caller.