Sammy Watkins' Rib

Reminiscent of Miami a couple weeks ago against the Saints and their 4th string QB.

I always struggle with the right comparison for Allen. Similarities to many. Allen has more big play running ability then Newton had. In Allen's four years he has two years of 7.1 ypc (rookie year) and 6.3 ypc. Cam has never been over 5.8ypc in a season. Steve Young had a bunch of seasons over 6.0 ypc but at about half the number of attempts that Cam and Allen typically get in a season. But Young did have big play ability running the ball like Allen.

The first 50 minutes of this game felt like the coaching staff told Josh "Whatever you do. Do not feel like you have to make every play today. Just get rid of the ball." If this were a playoff game Josh probably would have had 50 yards rushing by halftime. I think it is becoming clear Josh needs to run like a MOFO in these bad weather home games. If he doesn't do it in the regular season that is one thing but when the stakes are the highest let it him run.

I don't think they want Josh moving around much in this game. they are hoping he can do as little as possible and still get the W. They want the ball out of his hands fast today when he does throw it. Get the W and move on to the next game. I'm just not so sure about the W at this point.

Living and dying by the option routes.

Feels like a large part of the game plan is to not have Josh have to do much today. They just want to get a W by no matter what score and have a 100% healthy Allen.

These are just QB's I gathered that are near the top. Burrow is close but he trails Allen by over 100 yards and 4 TD's and since he isn't playing today I just left him off the list. There might be a chance Brady only plays one half but I would lean that he plays the entire game if the Bucs are not locked into a seed and they care about where they can end up.

Are you taking the over or the under in our game? That wasn't 100% clear as I read it. It sounds like you are taking the Jets to score a decent amount of points in this game (to cover the spread) and so you are taking the over right?

I had a "favorites roll parlay" going yesterday. Just 1%. First time all year I had done one of all big favorites. Chiefs blew it up.

I'm guessing it is because kick off is moved back 3 hours later.

Yep. With my case i have been lucky enough that I have not had to make a deposit in a few years. Keep your bets to around 1% of your bank roll and you can ride out the lows and then when you get on a hot streak hopefully get back to your starting balance or even more. This season I have consistently been betting the following each week: 5% on 6team teasers 1% on a 6 to 8 team teaser 1% on a 5 team parlay What ever one does I would suggest being as consistent as you can in your percentages and what you like to bet weekly.

So Brady actually has the inside track now in finishing 1st in both categories. For those that want something else to keep and eye on for today's games the current leaders below. Total Yards Mahomes- 5,220 (final total) Brady- 5,071 Herbert- 4,932 Allen- 4,868 Total TD's Brady- 40 + 2 =42 Allen- 34 + 6 = 40 Mahomes- 32 + 2 = 39 (final) Herbert- 35 + 3= 38 Stafford- 38 + 0= 38 Prescott- 37 + 1= 38 (16 games/ final) Rodgers- 35 +3= 38 (15 games with one to go)

Titans is the biggest one. They win that they currently hold the #1 seed.

Chiefs crushed me last night. Had them in multiple teasers betting the line down to -5. I didn't mind when it looked like the Bills might get the #2 seed but to have all my teasers and parlays blown up before the Sunday early games AND not get the #2 seed. That is like being kicked when you are down. The joys of gambling on the NFL! For the year I am up about $50 and that's where I'll leave it for this season. My worst beat for the season so far was the Jonathan Taylor TD to close out the Patriots. Just trying to get a first down to run the clock out and he breaks it for a 70 yard TD. I had the Patriots in a 6 team teaser and that was the only one that didn't hit. Cost be around $200.

I always felt like our team as currently constructed was blowout proof. And that has nearly played out since they have only loss one game by more than 7 points. That was the most shocking thing regarding the Colts game. I think 8 times out of 10 our offense puts up enough points to not be blown out by the Colts. The defense is going to struggle though against that running game. Ideally, don't turn the ball over, and even with a strong running game from the opponent the opponent just won't have enough possessions to really put a big number up on the scoreboard. But that McKenzie fumble on the kick off really opened the door for the colts and the route was on at that point. Then a couple of picks by Josh. Even the second Patriots game was scary in that the Bills were really dominating the game on offense and dominating the Patriots passing game but the Patriots rushing game made it a one score game late in the fourth quarter when it felt like the Bills should be up 14.

Yeah. For some reason I have found it incredibly difficult to find team win/loss records in one score games. A google search has only come up with complete season data for the 2019 season. Seem like something that would be easier to find. I'm greedy. I want them all back! 16-1!

Bills may have been a Melvin Gordon fumble away from the #2 seed and possibly home field throughout if the Titans loss their first playoff game. that does change things quite a bit.

does it say something like “10x roll over” that means something like you have to bet the whatever bonus they give you a total of 10 times. So if you get a $300 free bonus you must wager a total of $3,000 before you can withdrawal. They are banking on the average better losing the bonus money over time the more they are required to wager

Other than Rodgers I think you can make a case for 2-7 in what ever order you want. The QB play this year has been very erratic and everyone 2-7 has been playing around the same level. The one exception I might make is Murray. I could see him being firmly #7 and the others could go anywhere from 2 to 6. Derek Carr, 12 fumbles?? Yikes. And Murray with 13 fumbles in only 13 games? Mahomes has 9 fumbles. Allen only has 8 fumbles on the season and probably has more carries then the three combined. Hopefully the talking heads stop talking about Allen's fumbling issues.

I love how Gabe Davis is developing and he'll only be 23 going into next season. McKenzie might be a suitable replacement for Beasley and he'll be 27 next season. We probably just need one more young guy? Really feel like Davis should be on the field for 90% of the snaps and I love the dimension that McKenzie brings with the jet sweep motions. Whether he gets the ball or not defenses have to account for him.

We need more of play #5. That was a thing of beauty by all the blockers. Morse and Knox specifically with great blocks.

He should be back for the 5ht year. He's under contract still and the risk of losing him is not yet worth the reward of a replacement. Unless Rodgers or Wilson are going to Cleveland which I don't see likely. But beyond year 5 looks very unlikely.

This. And last weeks game was a prime example. Not the best weather conditions for any QB. But Allen won the game with his legs. Had a 61 QBR. That's hard to do when his passer rating was 17. But shows just how dominant he was on the ground not just scoring two TD's but picking up key third downs. Ryan had a poor passing game as well, not as poor as Allen's, but the difference was Ryan did zilch with his legs. Actually less than zilch, he was penalized twice when he tried to use his legs. The stats posted by the OP while accurate for passing, do not show the total picture when it comes to a QB like Allen.

I was thinking it might actually be above or below .500 if viewing it as median. But even breaking it out that way it is likely to be .500 or so damn close to .500 I don't think it matters. So yes, the average team does in fact go .500. I took a look at the 2019 season and teams 16, 17, 18 and 19 all went .500 in one score games. There was a slight bias towards more teams going .500 or better vs. going under .500 That was the sort of information I was looking for but obviously the results are .500. That was data for 2019. No idea how other years stack up but I would assume very similar. I'm not a math wiz but I'm thinking it's still possible for the median to be less than or greater than .500 any given year. But we would be talking a difference of .1 or .2 wins at most probably. So yeah, pie in face.

Hail Murray?