Sammy Watkins' Rib

How am I the only one who gave a thumbs up to the OP? This would be great news for the Bills. Agreed. McKinnon is the guy that should be getting 80% of the touches out of the backfield. Would love for the Chiefs to trade for Barkley or McCaffery. Just as the Chiefs would love for the Bills to do the same. No way the Bills trade for either now though after the Cook draft pick.

Agree, we won't see the second bye week till we get 18 games. But that's probably not too far off. Maybe within 3-5 seasons. I think they will have 2 pre-season games. It's not just a warm up game for the players and coaches but also for the broadcast crews and everyone working the stadiums. Each stadium will want to make sure everything is running smoothly; broadcast, security, concessions, parking etc. That will require two preseason games. It's just a bit more grueling than golf. Unless you are first basemen.

The additional week would mean more primetime games. Which I think would translate to more revenue even if the number of games for each team stays at 17. But eventually it will go to 18. At that point we will likely see 2 pre season games, 18 regular season games and 2 bye weeks. Throw in future expansion and we might get up to 8 playoff teams per conference. That could get us back to bye weeks for both the 1st and 2nd teams which I like over the current format of only the 1st seed receiving a bye. But that is a wash for me because I don't really like the idea of 8 playoffs teams per conference. But if the league expands by 2 teams per conference we are at least still < 50% of teams making the playoffs. Perhaps the 4 total expansion teams end up all being international teams. England, Germany, Canada and Mexico. Not sure how you divvy up the commences though. Would hate to change the current conference formats of 4 teams per division and 4 divisions per conference. Maybe the 4 international teams form their own division and rotate conferences every year. Basically guaranteeing a international team to make the playoffs every year.

Both Davis and Knox look like breakout candidates for this upcoming season. The talent is there. They just need to get the snaps and targets consistently. If I had to pick one to breakout it would be Davis. His snap count and targets should double maybe even more than double. Knox probably won't see more snaps but may see more targets, but not as big of a jump as Davis will see.

From 2017 to 2020, 4 seasons, more punt returns than receptions. Your typical WR does not come close to having more punt returns than receptions. He's viewed around the league as a punt return specialist first. WR second. I don't disagree the guy is past his prime. IF, and that's a big if, he sticks on the Bills roster it's more likely than not he ends up with another season with more punt returns than receptions.

It seems you are arguing just to argue. Whether or not the guy is capable anymore is not my point. But I don't think it is debatable that for his entire career he has been known and used as a punt return specialist more so than a receiving threat. And that includes even recently. From 2017 to 2020, a four year span, he had more punt returns (42) than he did receptions (39). The year prior in 2016 he lead the league in punt returns with 44. In 2014 he had four more punt returns (35) than he had receptions (31). For his career he has 244 receptions to 190 punt returns. That's not a very big spread. So yes, teams see him as a punt return guy rather than a WR. Last year was the first time in his career he had substantially more receptions than punt returns in terms of percentage difference between the two.

PR

You're talking about Stevenson no? He did that like three times in one game from what I recall. It was unreal. I don't recall McKenzie doing that.

While I agree he can't be trusted I also think he's the most electric guy we have for either Punt or Kick Off. I'm willing to let him continue to do it and roll with the risk by a game by game scenario. As long as he at least makes as many good plays as bad. McDermott going with Hyde for example in the windy NE game I thought was a good move. And Hyde had some great returns. He'd probably be the guy majority of the time if he wasn't so valuable for the defense. Hyde would be that guy. But don't want him out there all the time. New England used to always send Edleman back for punts for some reason. And Brown used to do it a lot as well in Pittsburgh.

So now that Fitz is hanging them up I have two questions. Who takes his place as capable starting QB in the NFL who jumps around from team to team? Don't know that there is one currently but maybe Minshew can become that guy now that he has left the Jaguars. Jacoby Brissett has a shot. Especially if Watson gets a major suspension. Who is the current equivalent of Fitz at any other position in the league?

I think that is why Austin came here. There isn't one guy holding it down right now. But I don't see him sticking as just a returner.

There are 3 slot corners better than him?

LOL. I'm not talking about breaking out. Just contribute would be a start. If he doesn't contribute at all I don't see a spot for him as a specialist only.

Confused by this signing to be honest. Seems like a waste of both Austin's and the Bills time. Stevenson seemed like a possible cut candidate before this signing. So Austin still seems like a good possibility to be cut as well. But I get it from Austin's view point. He's signing with a contender that doesn't have a returner set in stone. I'm just not sure the Bills would keep him for only return capabilities. He'll need to prove he can do some things on offense too.

My thoughts exactly. There was a thread a while back I recall. Maybe by Virgil saying that term should be retired. I sort of agreed at the time but not sure I do any longer. Not after the 13 second debacle. Yes, the Bills are good again. As good as those early 90's teams. But they still suffer from some sort of curse. Billsy will be officially retired when they win it all.

Did you forget that we added Crowder? How many veteran WR’s does the team need? Last year we had three in Diggs, Beasley and Sanders. But Sanders took snaps away from Davis. In the end I think we would have been better off with just Diggs and Beasley as the vets. This team doesn’t need more than two veteran WR’s. Plus, recent trends have been for young receivers to produce right away in their first year.

We are about to find out how much Aaron Rodgers helped Adams in Green Bay. Selfishly I am rooting for Adams, AJ Brown and Hill to all have down years because I think the WR market has gone insane and still think it is mostly about the QB. That said, Carr isn’t some journeyman level QB. He is certainly capable of producing big numbers with Adams. Heck, they did it together back at Fresno State. I like Carr too so it would be nice to see him do well. Especially in that division.

WR is one of those positions in the NFL where just being top 10 means you are damn good. I have no idea how anyone could sort out the top or so 6 in any kind of firm order.

Not sure how else to rank tight ends around the league. Everything else is very subjective. If Knox puts in a 1000 yard season then he’ll firmly be in that best tight ends in the league list.

Just because other teams are making terrible personnel decisions at the TE position doesn’t mean the Bills should do the same. It’s no different then the Cowboys or Panthers paying massive deals to Zeke and McCaffery in that regard. Bad business. The difference though is that a truly elite TE is worth $20 million + per year. But we are talking Kelce and prime Gronk and Kittle and Andrew’s to a lesser extent. Basically you have to be a top 3 TE talent. Beyond that i think TE’s are easily interchangeable. Thus far the Hunter Henry and Jonu Smith signings have been a failure for the patriots. In fact, the Smith contract might be the worst value contract among TE’s in all of football in terms of cap hit for 2022. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2022/tight-end/cap-hit/

I think you are over rating Knox’s production last year if you say he was one of the best TE’s in the league. He ranked 18th and 15th respectively among TE’s in receptions and yards. Far from top 5 or even top 10. Sure he was tied for first in TD’s but that is a stat that is typically far less repeatable from year to year. I wouldn’t want to pay that kind of cash to Knox if he only matches last years numbers. If he can succeed them by a decent amount I’d be okay with it.

section 510 row 1 here

I really like to play football too coach! Can i come down for a try out?

I calculated Jim Kelly's home vs. road splits through Kelly's first four seasons. Kelly was 4 points better, 61% completion vs 57% completion on the road vs. at home. However, by the time Kelly retired, his career home vs. road completion percentage split was only 0.7% better on the road then at home. His passer rating was two points better on the road vs at home (83.61 to 81.66) in his first 4 seasons. However, by the time Kelly retired he had made was better at home vs on the road. He ended his career at 86.3 home vs. 82.8 on the road. For his career, Kelly threw for .4 more yards per attempt at home then on the road. However, in his first four season he threw for .15 less yards at home vs. on the road. Kelly averaged 39 more YPG on the road vs. at home in his first four seasons. By the time Kelly retired he averaged only 8 more YPG on the road vs. at home. The above tells me a couple things could be true: 1. 4 seasons is simply not a large enough sample size. 2. it takes time to perfect the art of playing in the Buffalo elements. That said, Allen's home vs. road splits are much more dramatic then Kelly's were in each players first four seasons. Also, taking a deep dive into Allen's home vs. road splits we actually find that they have extended even more in favor towards road in his 3rd and 4th years as opposed to his 1st and 2nd years. In Allen's first two seasons he threw for 15 YPG less at home then he did on the road. In his last two seasons he's thrown for 75 YPG less at home then on the road. Again, the road vs. home gap is widening, not shortening like Kelly ultimately did in his career. It will be interesting to see where Allen's home vs. road splits ends up.

He won't be in the MVP discussion if the Chiefs don't win the division. Historically, to win the MVP you not only have to win your division but you have to have the #1 seed in your conference. I guess he could be in the fringe discussion just like Allen was this past season. Allen's stats were good enough but with no realistic way of obtaining the #1 seed he wasn't a serious contender over Rodgers or Brady.