Sammy Watkins' Rib

I'm not going to lie. I'm worried about this game. I want to win badly because of all the Tua hype and also knowing the Bills need to keep pace for the 1 seed. So I have done what I typically do when I want to win badly. I'm paying for a W. Put some heavy bets on the Dolphins this week. My concerns are the Bills offense is way overdue for a below average game. Hopefully not a terrible game but a below average game could be enough to keep the score uncomfortably close. And I mentioned in another thread I think Miami is going to have success on the ground if they beat the Bills today. The Bills run defense has been great but I think the McDaniel running game will have some new wrinkles in it today and Miami has a lot of speed compared to say the Titans and Derrick Henry. So while we shut the Titans down we will likely need a different game plan against Miami's personnel. Also, I'm not as concerned about our secondary simply because I still see Tua as a limited QB and the Bills have one of the best pass rushes in the league. McDermott and Frazier have always gotten great secondary play out of the team too. Where they sometimes slip up is in stopping the run.

I hate threads like these because they always come back to bite us in the butt.

I agree. Given age and where the injury is, regardless of severity, we may have seen the last of Micah on the field for the Bills.

Bummer news. Get well soon Micah! Early hot take.. with both Benford and Elam getting so much playing time early in the season and looking pretty good and with Tre coming back from injury in a few weeks any chance any of them can make the conversion from corner to Free Safety? I believe it is not unheard of for corners to convert to safeties later in their careers. As good as Tre is I'm not sure he has the build for a safety. I'm also mostly intrigued because I hate to have one of Benford or Elam on the bench when Tre comes back when they are playing so well. But first lets see how Jaquan Johnson plays. His time to step up. And he will have a great supporting cast around him.

It's not but it is one of the last four games he played. Also, the very next week he played the Patriots and I have to say he was a game manager in that game just like he was in the week one game this year against the same team. Two different seasons, same opponent, same game manager style don't lose the game for us type of game. A lot of the talk about Allen has been what he has done in his last four games dating back to last seasons playoffs. He is on a historical run. So I think it is fare to contrast with Tua's last four games. Tua has had a historical quarter of football. But it happens to be the last quarter he played. All this said, Tua has gotten a lot of crap from fans and media as a guy that can't cut in this league. As Bills fans I think we can all relate to that as Allen got a lot of that in his first two seasons. In that sense I am happy for Tua and rooting for him. Just not this Sunday. I still think the cards are stacked heavily against Tua breaking out for an entire season though. Time will tell if Tua's 3rd season can be a breakout season like Allen's 3rd season was. But so far Tua merely has one great quarter of football in two games. Allen had 7 or 8 great quarters of football when he broke out in his first two games back in 2020.

And this is one of Tua's last four games played. One of his worst ever as a pro. In a high stakes game that Miami had to have. Then the following week he plays a game manager role at New England attempting only 22 passes while getting the win. Meanwhile exactly one week later against the exact same New England defense Josh Allen leads the Bills offense to the first ever perfect game while throwing 5 TD's in zero degree weather. And Tua's week one game this year against the Patriots was very much like his final game last season. Game manger squeaking out the win 20-7 in a game that the offense only put up 13 of those 20 points. If you look at the totals of the last four games played for each player, Tua vs. Josh, Josh still runs circles around Tua but Tua probably looks somewhat respectable in terms of QB rating, QBR and TD to INT ratio. But it is heavily dependent on one quarter of football.

Tua has had one exceptionally good quarter out of his last 16 quarters played. The other 15 quarters of football have been either average or below average QB play. Allen has played at a good to exceptionally good level in his last 15 quarters of football. Not needing to play at all in his most recent quarter. Tua and Miami are intriguing. At the least, we see that their offense is explosive and the addition of Hill was a homerun for them. They won't ever be out of a game even if down multiple scores in the 4th quarter. The difference in this game will hopefully be the Bills pass rush and McDermott/Frazier's track record of consistent don't get beat deep secondary regardless of who is back there. Josh Allen and the Bills offense is on an amazing efficiency streak. Law of averages suggest sooner rather than later they will have a down game unless they are one of those truly elite offenses like the 2007 Patriots or 2013 Broncos. Neither team was held to less than 30 points on the score board until weeks 9 and 8 respectively.

True they haven't shown a great running game yet. Although they ran the ball much better in week 2 vs. week1 against the Patriots so the stats are kind of skewed. We don't know which Miami team is the one to expect and which is an aberration. My thinking is the Bills pass rush is dominant. Dropping Tua back more than 35 times isn't going to be good for Miami. Also, McDermott has always coached good secondary play with the Bills since he arrived here in 2017. So I think the injuries in the secondary are a little over blown. McDaniel came from the 49ers system where they used Deebo Samuel in the ground game a lot. Thus far, in just two games we haven't really seen Hill in that role but I think McDaniel could have some new wrinkles in his game plan this week for the Bills. Also, just going off of memory, it feels like in a lot of the Bills losses over the years under McDermott, they have come because the defense gives up over 200 yards rushing as opposed to over 300 passing and 4 TD's threw the air. I would also say the weather could dictate more ground game in this one but I'm not sure it is going to be all that wet on Sunday. Looks like Sunday evening and Monday are much wetter if the forecast holds.

I actually think Miami is going to try to run it down our throats. I expect Hill to be lined up in the backfield quite a bit.

It seems inevitable that Allen will go 30/30 in a game eventually. Don't know when, but he will. And then ESPN can do a 30 for 30 on how a QB that completed 55% of his passes in college went 30/30 in an NFL game.

They are. But at the same time i truly feel like something has clicked recently with Allen. He's taken his already great play up another notch or two. Really reading the defenses and taking the easy completions without hesitation. It's taken him and the Bills to another level.

Josh Allen has played ELITE level football in 4 consecutive games now. And I am talking ELITE. Not sure any QB has ever put together 4 consecutive games like Josh has. Mahomes, Brady, Peyton, Marino, Montana you name them. It's like a light bulb went off and he's now unstoppable. Defense is looking great in 3 out of those 4 games.

We got the super bowl favorite Dolphins next week.

Let's hope Tua looks just good enough and he doesn't end up in Miami with Waddle and Hill.

Prayers out to Dane. That looked bad.

X1000 WTF?

Allen was under center on the Davis TD last week. Neve run okay actions out of shut gone on a yard or less to go.

Quiet quit.

That Thanksgiving game is actually going to be interesting.

week one was like that too. Survivor pools must be devastated. I went Ravens week 1 and Broncos week 2. Staying alive.

I enjoy the beat downs.

At the same time, Miami's defense was trash today for most of the game. They likely won't have a worst defensive performance this year outside of maybe one JA hangs on them in one or maybe both of the games we play them. So the Miami offense and Tua will not have to be that prolific to win most their games this year. Time will tell if Miami can compete with the Bills and maybe be to us what the Chargers are to the Chiefs.

Tua! Tua! Tua!

Allen has that some Dawg in him. If not even more than someone like Brady when it comes to taunting and trash talking.

just watch the video in the OP. The one from a couple years ago was a total blindside by Evans. Not sure if he was suspended or not for that one. I say he deserves a multi game suspension at this point.