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Franco_92

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Everything posted by Franco_92

  1. And the genetic similarity of this virus to other coronaviruses (and length of time it spends in the bloodstream after you've recovered) make true death counts impossible to gauge, along with reasons that might make us UNDERCOUNT deaths in some cases. The raw number itself, even divided by population count, is an utterly foolish and unscientific comparison tool. Same thing goes with already-present T-Cell immunity through the experience of many other SARS like viruses in the Pacific Rim over the last couple of decades. This is incredibly non-uniform globally and certainly has an impact on nation-by-nation comparisons. Lung receptors also vary depending on genetics/race/prevalence of smoking cigs, and age differences between nations are large too. America is also very fat. This virus is an infinite-variable phenomenon that people are screeching about by pointing at the most ridiculous and innocuous things. People pretending we were a simple legislative decision and simple human behavior away from making our numbers better are the most damaging kind of people there are in discourse.
  2. American mortality rates are in line with other countries, and that considers the dubious counting methods used here that likely aren't used elsewhere as well. Especially considering the ever-increasing number of studies coming out and predictably dulling that rate by an order of magnitude. American mistreatment of the nursing home scenario is far from unique, though that mistreatment's impact is outsized given the sheer volume of Americans in nursing homes, given that we're a country of 330 million + people. There is no one person you can pin that misfortune on, but EU nations made the same mistake, and had they been in charge making decisions here, the same thing would have happened, it just didn't over there in their quaint little nations that would comfortably fit inside some of our individual states. "Still in the depths of dealing with this nightmare when nearly all other industrialized nations have moved past the worst of it" This is a mistake of pretending the geographic scope of America is the same as that of a given nation, which again, would comfortably sit within one single state. There is only one state that has had two significant bouts of this virus, Louisiana. And at the county level, they still only "got hit" once - the counties that got hit the firs time were largely fine the second time, and didn't see a spike. Because of America's geographical scope, Hope-Simpson viral seasonality kept the virus at bay in some places, while in others it hit right away. That is why, despite strict lockdowns, the North East got ***** up, and then burned out despite halving their lockdowns in the midst of recovery, (as proxied by mobility data), and are fine now despite having varying levels of lockdown between them, all far more open than they were at the worst of the virus (and in the weeks preceding that) . It's why, despite maintaning 4-5+ months of the strictest lockdowns in the nation and world, California got hit predictably when a mild summer strain of cold and flu regularly surges in their climate, and the same thing for Hawaii, despite their lockdown curve being uniform, unchanging, without any inflection points in the preceding months. Depending on Hope-Simpson seasonality, there are a bunch of states with both strong negative corelation between lockdowns and increase of viral presence (measuring by case RATES and hospitalization numbers, rather than case numbers) AND a bunch of states with strong POSITIVE correlations betwen lockdown extent and increase of viral presence. Without controlling for seasonality, which is an effective proxy for virus prevalence above a critical mass that will cause spread no matter what (which no legislation in a country this big will ever, ever be able to control), that data is absolutely nonsensical. And the extent of lockdown doesn't correlate with prevalence of virus either - if you take the rolling average of mobility data the week/two weeks before COVID peak in a region, and then scatter plot that with the hospitalizations, deaths, or case rates of the region, you'll actually get negative correlation, suggesting that lockdowns are bad if you want to keep the virus away. Of course, the proper conclusion to draw from that isn't the obvious one, but you guys are drawing that simplistic of a conclusion in the OTHER direction, DESPITE the data saying the opposite! There is no data in the united states that even remotely paints genuine relations between "Americans being dumb and not locking down and wearing masks like GOOD SMART PEOPLE LIKE ME" and the actual presence of the virus anywhere. Recent uptick in case rates in the EU is also in line with Hope-Simpson, and nobody has made a peep about them, or that other industrialized countries are so uniform in climate compared to us that this effect is impossible to see in those countries, for ANY virus. The mobility data is easy to find with a quick google search, as is downloadable coronavirus data. I'd encourage you to play around with it yourself, it's enjoyable. Of course, this absence of data suggesting that we need to stay indoors indefinitely and wear cloth masks (don't even get me started on mask literature, which is an echoing, empty chamber of no validation) was entirely understood before the corona panic, and was the reason why nice dem-soc nations normally slobbered over like Sweden chose the routes they did. Routes that were validated given the number of people about to be homeless, the number of jobs lost, the number of suicides, missed cancer screenings, unreported cases of child abuse that normally get sent through the school systems, etc here. The United States succeeded by the only realistic metric of pandemic success humans can actually control - making progress on a vaccine, which is happening, and keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed, which happened. Nobody didn't have the beds, treatment they needed. Non-immunological legislation cannot help or solve pandemics in a way that we didn't achieve with it, and does significant damage, and scientists already knew this. You don't know what you're talking about and just like to get off on bitching about how dumb your own countrymen are. You are embarrassing
  3. It really is. But I'm sure you have an unnormalized case graph treating the entire nation as one covid conglomerate saved and ready to go. Or are scouring midwit journalism as I type
  4. The idea that non-immunoligical legislation can make macroscopic impacts on this virus, short of having a finger on each and every one of 380 million people, is what is pie-in-the-sky. There is a reason that an abundance of pandemic planning literature advises against strict lockdowns. Apologies. It is tiresome seeing unscientific nonsense masquerading around as "science says!!! Reddit and bill Nye and IFLS facebook page told me!!!"
  5. America is doing fine. Properly normalizing testing and taking into account the vast geographic scope and varying cold/flu hope-simpson seasonality for different regions, only NY/NJ/Mass. were negative outliers, compared to other western nations with potentially comparable coronavirus exposures (comparing to Pacific rim countries is not fair) and even those regions didn't see the doom that Italy saw The NFL should not be anywhere near as quick-twitch panicky as it's likely going to be
  6. All teams should allow limited capacity fans, with masks and temp checks at the gate.
  7. I've been tracking social distancing measures and disease rates across different states and countries for months. Non-immunoligical legislation doesn't dent this virus. A limited number of fans would be absolutely fine and won't contribute to DEATH and DESPAIR any more than was already coming
  8. I've been in dozens and dozens of situations in grocery stores that have had me in closer proximity to more people than when I walk to my seat at Bills games. I hope they do this and I'd absolutely go
  9. So it wasn't for his own health but to spend time helping others? Commendable
  10. Babbling like an idiot instead of letting the system handle it is exactly how not to do things. I honestly think he's going a little overboard now, but I don't blame him for playing some I told you so
  11. He explicitly tweeted today that he thought the open beer can claim was a ridiculous lie, that a 5 foot 8 inch cop who wasn't even tall enough to peek into his lifted truck's window couldnt possibly honestly claim that If he really had an open can and they had evidence of it, he wouldn't have had all charges dropped
  12. Dont blame him for venting there, though I'd encourage him to try and avoid it. He nailed this situation overall. Nice work Ed
  13. The suspension wouldn't have been this season
  14. Right? What cop would put his livelihood and life as he knows it on the line for that?
  15. You dont know anything about hockey lol. The best skaters in the league are on the ice, at most, 33% of the time. Jack Eichel has hart trophy level impacts when he's on the ice. All metrics indicate that when hes off the ice, the sabres only have bottom-of-the-barrel level talent to offer. Today's nhl relies increasingly on depth performance in specific niches. The sabres forward and center depth have been abominable Jack's entire time here, save 3 years of having a good 2C. The sabres have also spent three years icing dreadful goalies for a significant amount of their games. This is a league in which, before the salary cap, the second best forward ever took 5 years to sniff his first playoff game, and that was when every team had depth skaters not much better at hockey than you and I. In today's game,Johan Larsson can shut down Nikita Kucherov 99% of the time, and the importance of winning battles up and down the lineup is everything.
  16. Gilmore only didn't have any targets resulting in TDs because Brown torched him so bad Mccourty had to take the L in that stat.
  17. "It's fun to pretend there will be a season this year." "I'd bet you anything I own there'll be a season this fall." He set the bet by laughing off the idea that football will happen. I'm betting that an NFL season will happen. I don't pretend to know the way it will happen, the way he's pretending to know there won't be any football this fall. So we'll see what he stumbles to from there.
  18. I'd bet you anything I own that there will be an nfl season this fall.
  19. There are MLB games in a few weeks. The NFL season, which normally encompasses a span 2.5 - 6.5 months from now, will have games
  20. He is bad independent of the injury, and the toll his body has taken over the years means that even though he's technically recovered from the shoulder thing, he is hardly going to be springy, spry, and gung-ho for contact out there.
  21. Cam is physically shot and was utterly horrendous before being shut down. Brady is still good
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