TPS

I don't know about my "wild dispersions"... ? And, I'm not sure what there is to prove by suggesting people could go back and read posts from a month ago to see who was taking it seriously and who wasn't? All that says is people can read and figure out on their own. I wonder why you are taking that personally....?

Exactly, and why people are criticizing that lack early testing. As I stated in my post to 1959, while there are areas in the country where testing is important due to low outbreaks, for those in the midst of it, it will become relevant as we come out of it and transition to back to "normal" whatever that is... Yes, I've been criticizing DeBlasio's lack of focus too.

As stated in that video, the Koreans immediately worked with private labs to expand. The CDC eschewed the German test that WHO recommended to create their own, they controlled testing early, and also had the well-known F-up with the test kit that set things back a week or two.. The testing early only has to be focused on where the cases are and then doing the containment, so it didn't require hundreds of 1000s early on, but it does require 1000s. Cuomo was calling for the CDC to let the state labs test by March 8. The FDA was also slow at providing the ok for private labs. You may not agree, but this is why it was so important to have a high-level pandemic coordinator (the position that was "streamlined" by Bolton and subsumed under a broader agency) to over-rule the bureaucratic delays. The lack of quickly rolling out testing will be seen as the failure of our response. As for the death rate, you've already posted something about "don't tell me it's early," but it is. The number of tests becomes irrelevant to the death rate when we've reached the point where hospitals are overrun, because the only thing that matters is the ability to care for the numbers that are coming into the hospitals. The measure to compare is the one used on the worldometer site, deaths per million of population. Right now, italy is at 206 and the US is at 12 (4100 deaths so far). Italy's will surely go up some, but it is slowing. For the US, if we are able to limit the number of deaths to 100,000, then that number will be close to 300, and of course if deaths are closer to 200,000, then we're at 600 per 1 mil.So, yes, where we are in the process matters.... As for testing now, it becomes very important once we get past the pandemic phase and phasing back to normal--you do the same thing that should've been done at the start--test, isolate, contain.

Yes, it goes to show you how the guys in the market felt. Why do you think the market tanked after the fed dropped interest rates to zero? Trump was so giddy that Sunday and said "I'm sure wall street will be happy." That monday was the second largest drop in history, and that afternoon trump took on a different focus in his press conference. It's not difficult to see.

If you've read anything on how testing is used, it's to identify, so you can isolate, then contain by finding everyone else that person contacted. It's exactly what SKorea did. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51897979/coronavirus-south-korea-seeing-a-stabilising-trend It's 2 minutes long.

I'm sure this was posted back when he said it, but a lot of people thought there was a lack of leadership... https://www.mediaite.com/news/cnbcs-jim-cramer-hits-trump-for-leisure-time-amid-dow-bloodbath-we-all-want-more-leadership-we-dont-want-golfing/ March 9th: “I think we all want more leadership,” Cramer said. “I think that we all want more test kits, if we’re going to just talk about health care. We all want the treasury secretary to come out and say ‘small businesses, we’ve got no-interest loans.’ We want to be able to take advantage of the curve … and be able to be ready. We don’t want golfing.” A CNBC colleague pointed out that the administration appears to be opting against that stance, with Trump advisor Larry Kudlow saying that the impact from the virus has been “contained.” “That may be an ill-advised position,” Cramer said.

Yes, let's not look at the past and cast blame; however, I would suggest going back a month to see who was taking the trump line from the start, like comparing it to the flu, or posting how few deaths there were, then also look and see who took it seriously...

The first known case in NY was identified March 1st, while de blasio was still telling people to go about their business that week, I don't think you can say the same about Cuomo. He declared a state of emergency 6 days later.

Actively spreading with his golf and gatherings at Mar a lago you mean...

Wait Mitch, are you saying the administration wasn't focused on this early...? Yes, somewhere in this thread I said de Blasio and Trump were similar in this.

And that's the excuse those with TLS use--blame China or no one could see it coming. My criticism has been their lack of response once it was here. While he deserves credit for closing off with China, they sqaundered that time by not taking it seriously enough.

Now that he’s admitting there could be anywhere from 100-200k deaths from this, do you still Think this? I was saying 4 weeks ago they are not taking this seriously enough, putting the stock market/economy above health and safety, while trump was talking about only 15 cases and we’ll be down to 0. Most here were saying it’s being driven by media hype or Dems wanting to hurt his re-election chances. I wonder how many have admitted they were wrong about that, or is it still perceived as the truth? Is this just another flu that’s been overhyped? As for predictions, I made the opposite one Back then (which seems like months now), that his lack of urgency and response would be his undoing on this. We’ll see....

There is a large group in both, true.

You're an idiot.... ?

I had this discussion already. I have in the past given credit to trump on some of his policies, and I have said that Russia gate was bs from the start, so I have shown the ability to take both sides. How many people here can say they've ever criticized a trump policy? If you've never criticized his policies, then either you can't get past your own bias, in which case it's impossible to have a real discussion and you're a political hack like people accuse Tibs of being, or Trump has never been wrong about anything....

It seems to be a cult with Trump. When people are unable to criticize him objectively, it's a bit difficult to have any kind of debate. I'll try to refrain though...

Says the guy who hasn't criticized one trump policy in over 3 years.... At least you admitted it, so kudos there.

Yes, I agree, when testing is rolled out on a significant scale in any country, you don't know if the number of new cases is due to the ramping up of testing or not. However... The data JH uses is based on the number of days since the first 100 cases, which is a decent measure (there is no perfect measure yet) because testing started out a such a low rate in most countries, and most of those early cases are (most likely) associated with hospitalizations. Using that assumption shows the US is 10 days behind Italy. It is also consistent with using the number of days each country experienced their first 100 deaths (probably a better measure), which is around March 4th for Italy and around the 17th for the US. So, yes, when widespread testing starts, it influences the number of new cases, which is why it's more accurate (not perfect) to use the "first 100 metrics."

Maybe he looks at data? According to the Johns Hopkins site, using "days since 100 cases," Italy is on day 35, the US is on day 25, 10 days behind.

Hmmm...Birx now predicting 100-200K deaths, so why are they inciting fear now? Fake news? Inflating the expectations so they can tout success when they're lower? So many questions...

The site I use is Johns Hopkins. Currently, both NY and MA are exponential, but NY's weekly growth rate is less than MA's, which makes NY's doubling time about 3.3 days and MA''s just over 2. However, the most recent (3/29) daily change was about the same for both states, but I wouldn't suggest that's a trend yet...

You may want to find my interaction with 3rd on this a few weeks back, it will save you from wasting your time...

Where do get that MA is weeks behind NY? MA had its first cases in the last week of Feb, and NY was about same. One of the sites I use shows the growth as of the 20th case, and MA is only 3 days behind NY. Oh, and I wasn't trying to link to an article, rather my response to your error-filled critique of Pueyo.

Not unless you expect a big move up in prices. Steep contango creates a built-in loss for commodity etfs through what's known as the roll yield. For example, the value of USO is derived from its purchase of futures on oil, the contracts closest to expiration. Before the contracts expire, the etf managers have to sell (so as not to take delivery) and then buy the next month contracts. In contango, your selling price is less than your buying price--the fund is selling futures low and buying high, creating a "negative roll yield." As that eats away at the value of the underlying assets, it also eats away at the price of the etf, unless you have a bunch uninformed investors piling in, which can temporarily push the price above underlying value...So, if you see "professionals" hyping USO or other oil etfs when the markets in contango, be wary...