TPS

Yes, this is what I'm focused on. Bye-bye USO....

The Chargers gm has awoken from a long slumber and is grabbing a snack. Before going back to bed, will there be a round 4, or can I continue to snooze...?

I went on Yahoo a few minutes ago to look at comments about USO. You will find two types of people hyping it: those who hold short positions, and those who have no clue what they're buying. USO's price has been rising while the underlying June contract is falling. The power of social media... By next week, it will be dissolved.

I found that Goldman quote on Zero Hedge. Maybe I wasn't paying attention, have they made it easy for anyone to trade futures now? One used to have to pass the Series 3 exam. Can individuals trade futures through their brokers who have the Series 3? That would be stupid, but not surprising as Wall Street needs the rubes....

Yes, I'm talking about when investors believe it has hit bottom. It will take some time for sure...

They have the FED. No biggie...

There are no mom and pop traders in futures. They are betting on oil using ETFs like USO, who is doing the underlying buying. As I mentioned, USO rolled their position from May into the June contract April 7 - 13th. The piece you linked to said they moved 20% of their holdings from the June to July contract, but they were already out of the May contract. My guess is it was some hedge funds who thought they knew the oil market, but didn't. Mom and pop traders bet on oil using ETFs like USO. They will lose, but not because of negative prices yesterday--that impacted other traders. They will lose because USO will be forced to dissolve soon. Based on the June price decline today from $20 to $13, it's NAV has fallen by $1 billion, which is 25% of its NAV. It's currently selling for $2.66 per share, which will probably entice some retail investors into buying it, thinking it has to go up eventually. However, it will be liquidated, maybe even this week. I agree.

They only have to hold until oil prices recover in a few months from this bottom.

I don't think so. Based on the last trading report, the open long positions were dominated by "managed money traders" and "other reportables" the latter consists of big players. The so-called mom and pop traders would be in non-reportables and there weren't a lot of contracts held compared to the other two. Definitely some big players got caught holding the bag... On the other hand, the banks can take the assets, then sell them when/if prices recover.

Yeah, that's the easy part. I'm interested in who those speculators are that got caught holding long positions the day before the May contract expires. As we transition into the June contract, it's down below $16 and falling. This WILL wipe out oil ETFs, so get your money out while you can....

Looks like he's missed quite a few games the past two years, KA.

Are you sure about those prices? Those look like the changes not the contract values? I mentioned oil ETFs up thread, but they can't be the reason because they "roll" out of their contracts the week before the expiring date, so it's going to be interesting to see who the long speculators are who got caught in the long squeeze. Maybe some inexperienced Hedgies? At any rate, those ETFs and Index Funds are still going to lose big time since they are "selling low and buying high," the negative roll yield in contango markets. If anyone comes across any articles on who the losers are, I'd appreciate a notification. I did read one thing that argued it was USO, but I looked at their roll dates (when they start selling the expiring May contract and buying the June contract), and they were April 7 through the 13th. They weren't sellers today (All of the institutional funds roll out at least the week before the contract expires). Interesting times...

negative $38

I hope gas prices reflect this in the next few days.... hmmm.... negative $0.25 per gallon...? ?

Hope you didn't buy any ETFs after that last discussion. Btw, @Foxx you nailed it. USO and other oil ETFs will dissolve this week, unless they have a friend in the WH.... They are now paying investors to accept bids on their May contracts so they can close their positions without having to take delivery--which they are incapable of. If they want to continue as an ETF, they'd have to buy the June at $21. Negative $8.50 and falling...

It is currently negative. It's the oil ETFs that are selling their contracts today, otherwise they have to take physical delivery--which they can't.

The May contract for WTI is now down to $0.90!!! That's 42,000 gallons of oil for 90 cents. If only I could store it somewhere....

Had trump not intervened, it would be down to $0.80...

I'll wait and see how R1 shakes out first.

How much do you charge for access to your board....?

Tough call. I narrowed it down to Dugger and CEH. I'm intrigued by how McD would use Dugger and what he could do in this D, but CEH insures that the O wouldn't skip a beat if Singeltary went down, so I went with him.

He’s more of a LDE, though he can cover given how athletic he is. He’s worth the risk if he lasts past #40 in the real deal. I’ll be shocked if he’s available at 54.

Someone should've leaked the drug rumors earlier...

Really sorry to hear that. Hang in there--thoughts and prayers.

Ahhhh....