PlayoffsPlease

Historically your chances of making the playoffs with a week 1 win are 54% . A week one loss means a 25% chance. Probability percentages are not binary. But if you lose week 1, your chances of making the playoffs, the last 30 years, are much much less. This is based on historical facts. It is not a theory or a debatable point. If past is prologue, week one is important.

2018 is an aberration. I am guessing stats was not your strong suit in school.

You may think that. But it is not a correct assessment. Teams that start 1-0 historically have a 54% chance of making the playoffs. Teams that start 0-1 have a 25% chance of making the playoffs. That is a big difference. To make the playoffs you can generally lose 6 times. That means a weak one loss has used up 17% of your losses.

You do realize that 25% is not zero percent I assume. Maybe not. But your chances are more than twice as great if you win week one. This is a Bills fans myth. We want to think the Patriots have owned us for some reason beyond having better talent and coaching.

Here are the real historical stats. Win you have a 54% chance of making the playoffs. Lose the first game, the odds drop to 25%.

They all count the same, until you clinch a playoff spot. Each loss puts you one step closer to elimination. Obviously mathematically, nothing is a must win until it is a win or go home game, but dropping a full game behind a division rival week one is a terrible start to a season. It usually ends up with not making the playoffs.

Claiming a player requires a much bigger commitment than signing a player after they clear waivers. First, you lose your priorty in waiver order. Second you have to put the player on the 53 man roster.

I think winning teams think every game is "one they should win". If you think there are some "we should lose", it another way of saying, we will miss the playoffs again.

If you want to make the playoffs, you can afford to lose 6 games, and still have a chance. Pretty much every NFL game is a must win. If we use up 1/6 of our losses to a Jets game, it really does not bode well for the season.

Signing is not "claimed". Big difference.

To me, it all revolves around Josh Allen. I could be the president of his fan club. I think he is the real deal. But regarding the rest of the roster, I think people are over estimating the talent. The fact that the gap from John Brown and Cole Beasley and Zay Jones down to Ray Ray McCloud may not mean McCloud is a great asset for a team. It might mean that the Bills starting WR's are pretty mediocre by NFL standards. Same with the Oline. The confusion results in part from the Bills having an historically bad oline and receiver group last year. But the 2019 Bills won't be playing the 2018 Bills, so that doesn't really matter. When I line up the talent against the top teams in the AFC, it is not clear to me that we are that great. But maybe middling. I guess middling is a step in the right direction. But given the salary cap rules, I am not sure middling is a huge accomplishment.

It is good to know we won the off season again. I think that is 17 out of the last 20 years for the Bills.

If this was the Bills, some people would jump in to say "we have so much depth our third round draft picks can't even make the roster"

The GMs of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last year think they are just as good. Lets see how it plays out.

Blls are one of the older teams in the league by average age. Only 6 teams are older. https://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2019-edition/

Bills fans seem confused on RB's. The Bills were so bad last year at that position that people think any RB who doesn't run around behind the line of scrimmage and fall down is a potential NFL star. The Bills RBs are nothing special. Teams are not coveting our left overs.

The only way to beat the Bills that last 20 years is to steal the playbook. Apparently the entire league has been doing it.

Beane = Genius for drafting huge upside Teller with a fifth Beane = genius for trading teller for a fifth. Moves like this are what the process is all about.

This thread makes Bills fans look like a bunch of gossipy old woman. Embarrassing.

Ok, so who did Jones have targeting him that was famous for accuracy. The other posters analysis is a legit point of comparison. In terms of actual production. Brown and Jones are much more similar than people want to believe.

The twitter fully explains it is his personal idle speculation. Nothing to this at all.

Most organizations strive for a turnaround at the pace the rams or chiefs did, rather than a plodding many year process.

Did you even read your own comment?

There are 22 starters (ignoring kickers). With 18 games that means you need to rest 1 player on offense and 1 player on defense every week. And for three games rest 2 on each side. Would hardly ruin the game.