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Everything posted by msw2112
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If my memory serves me correctly, the Bears were not alone. Most of the draftniks had him going top-5. He was considered raw (because he hadn't played that much), but with a very high ceiling. Here's a pre-draft article about it: https://www.nfl.com/news/the-book-on-mitch-trubisky-scouting-polarizing-unc-qb-0ap3000000785960 It's too bad for Mitch that it hasn't really worked out in the NFL, but if it had, he wouldn't be with the Bills, he'd be the Bears' franchise QB, and Justin Fields and Caleb Williams would have ended up elsewhere.
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Alphas All-22 Review - Preseason Game 1 vs Bears
msw2112 replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall
Great write up by the OP. I didn't see the entire game and I was heavily distracted for the parts that I did see, so I was not able to see a lot of the nuances and specifics that I usually look for in a preseason game. In addition to it being a busy Saturday, the game was so ugly and boring that it didn't do a lot to keep my interest. I'm a little more encouraged about the team than I was 5 minutes ago, so thanks for that. -
Predict what positional groups are better/worse in 2024?
msw2112 replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
My biggest concerns are safety and interior OL. While Poyer and Hyde were clearly slower and it was time to move on, the replacement players lack the veteran leadership and savvy, plus Edwards and Bishop are new to the system and have lost a ton of reps due to injury. I'd feel a lot more comfortable of all the new guys had the benefit of a full camp, but that's far from what's happened. On the interior OL, McGovern at C is an experiment and may not go well. It also may work out fine. Only time will tell, but it's a risky move. Saturday's game, while largely meaningless, did not instill any confidence that the new OL is ready. The run blocking was nothing short of abysmal. WR will be fine. Shakir is really coming into his own and Samuel has a lot of talent and experience. Coleman is a work in progress, but will be effective in certain situations (and hopefully, eventually, in all situations). Hollis, MVS, Hamler, Claypool, etc. are probably better than our 4-7 last season. Many young players should be better, just given more experience and another year in a NFL weight room. That group includes Dorian Williams, Elam, Shakir (who has already been mentioned), Kincaid, and Torrence. Cook and Benford too. Arguably, Spencer Brown, Rousseau, and Epenesa could be also be better due to more experience and seasoning, but those guys have been around a while now and are "young veterans" so there's less room for improvement with them. Von Miller should be better this year too, although I don't anticipate him returning to his career-best form, as those years are long behind him. As mentioned above, Saturday's stinker didn't do much to move the needle, but a poor performance in a meaningless preseason game doesn't necessarily mean much of anything. -
Caleb Williams WILL play against Buffalo on Saturday
msw2112 replied to Roundybout's topic in The Stadium Wall
Williams looked pretty good. It's preseason and the Bills were terrible, but the kid showed some mobility and arm talent. I posted up above that I thought Williams would be a bust. Obviously, it's too small of a sample size to predict, but maybe I'm wrong and he'll end up living up to his 1st overall status. I saw in this thread that he was on the TB-12 diet. If don't know if that's a joke or serious. If it's serious, I have to give the kid props for making sacrifices to be better at his job - which goes against what I knew/thought about him. As to the Bills' performance, it was ugly. I don't care that much, as it's the first preseason game and is not predictive of how the regular season will go. It's one of the few times in my life that I literally shut off the TV and did something else when the Bills were on. For preseason, I usually watch to the final gun to see if some 7th round draft pick or UDFA is going to make a couple of plays that might win them a roster spot with the Bills or elsewhere in the NFL. This performance was just so bad that I couldn't even stomach doing that. The ones I feel sorry for are the folks that paid good money for tickets, and spent their Saturday trekking out to the stadium to see that. I hope they at least got to tailgate and have some fun in the nice Buffalo late-summer weather. -
One of the true highlights from a horrible era of Bills football. I believe this was the "Lawyer Milloy" game as well.
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Caleb Williams WILL play against Buffalo on Saturday
msw2112 replied to Roundybout's topic in The Stadium Wall
I'm not disputing this. But Jamarcus Russell had unique arm talent too. He could throw it 80 yards from his knees, but I have no idea how he was rated on touch and accuracy. Obviously, whatever he showed in college was enough to get him drafted first overall and the same goes for Williams. -
Caleb Williams WILL play against Buffalo on Saturday
msw2112 replied to Roundybout's topic in The Stadium Wall
I could see Williams being another Kyler Murray. Very talented, but more of a "me" guy that isn't a great "team" guy. A guy who will make some great plays based on superior athleticism, but not willing to focus on the fundamentals required to be consistently successful. My hunches on these guys are usually correct, but I've also been wrong before, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Obviously, the NFL scouts disagreed with me, as he was the consensus #1 overall pick, but, then again, so was Murray. -
I think the NFL, like the NBA, is becoming more "positionless." In the NBA, anyone over 6'10" used to be a back-to-the-basket center. Now we have 7 footers launching 3-pointers and some even bringing the ball up the court and distributing the ball. Big guards are small forwards and quick forwards are big guards. The old book has gone out the door. Some of the same is happening in the NFL. OLB or DE or "Edge?" DEs moving inside to DT on certain downs. Big safety or small LB (or "Rover")? TE or Fullback ("H-Back")? Pass catching TE or big WR? RB or "pass catcher" out of the backfield? Slot or outside WR? Not to mention the Wildcat and guys like Taysom Hill taking snaps. Some of this stuff is not all that new, but it's become more and more common. Brady seems to be very much on top of this trend and that's good for the Bills offense. The "this is what we're going to run, we know it, you know it, and you're not going to stop it because we are better than you" philosophy is not as effective as it once was, given free agency and salary caps. Talent disparities are not as great as they once were. Even Nick Saban, in recent years at Alabama, got more creative with his offense, after many years of the "this is what we're going to do and you can't stop us" philosophy. That was no longer good enough to beat Georgia every year. In the NFL, there is more parity than in college football, so creativity is even more important. I'm glad to see the Bills' offense moving in this direction.
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The issues I saw with Dorsey's offense were: forcing the ball to Diggs too often not taking the underneath stuff that was available (may have been more Allen than Dorsey) lack of establishment/commitment to the RB run game not using RBs in the passing game (particularly with Hines and Cook, who are known for that skill) lack of pre-snap motion to confuse/slow down defenses Despite these issues, Dorsey had Josh Allen and as such, still had a decent offense. A lot of the issues with Dorsey's offense carried over from Daboll, although Daboll was a bit more creative than Dorsey, and Daboll had the benefit of Cole Beasley in his prime. I don't think Dorsey was terrible, but I think the approach with Brady has been (based on W-L record), and will be, more successful. Brady likes to run the ball with RBs, spread the ball around to everyone, and use pre-snap motion to keep defenses guessing. I think that style of offense will be more difficult to defend, even if the statistics may not be as good.
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When Milton was at Michigan, based on his preseason practice performance, coaches and players were saying that he'd be the #1 overall draft pick in the NFL draft. Then the season started and he soon found himself losing his starting job to Cade McNamara after playing poorly and falling way behind at Rutgers (McNamara led the comeback for Michigan to win the game). He was also anointed the starter at Tennessee, and after getting injured, lost the spot to Hendon Hooker and Hooker kept the job when Milton got healthy. Milton has great measurables and is a fantastic practice player, but he's just not a very good in-game player. He's not Tom Brady 2.0. He's almost the opposite. Brady has somewhat limited physical tools, but he's the best ever at the intellectual part of the game, reading defenses, making the smart play, taking what the defense gives him. Brady is at his best in the biggest moments, Milton, no so much. In fairness to Milton, he did put up some decent numbers during his last couple of seasons at Tennessee, but he is who he is and I don't see him being a successful NFL QB. I have nothing against the guy, other than that he now plays for the Patriots, but because of that, I hope that I'm right.
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The Training Camp Enthusiasm for the Offense Thread
msw2112 replied to WhitewalkerInPhilly's topic in The Stadium Wall
Something I have learned over the years is to not get too excited over the offseason, one way or the other. The Bills definitely won the offseason when Rex was the coach, but not so much during the real season. Despite criticisms on this board, McDermott and Beane are disciplined, smart NFL veterans. They have a plan and are executing it. Give it some time. Last season, the big concern was MLB and the LB corps as a whole. Edmunds left as a free agent (to the delight of many here) with no clear replacement. McDermott said that the answer might already be on the roster, and this board blew up. Then the season came and Bernard played great. Spector and Dodson also played pretty well. Dorian Williams showed some flashes as a raw rookie backup. Until virtually all of them were injured in the playoffs, the LB unit was a major strength for the team. This season, with the loss of Diggs and Davis, the WR room looks like last year's LB situation (and arguably, Safety does too). Let's see how it plays out before getting too high or too low. It's only a few days into camp, but so far, so good. -
Make that 1/2 season.
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Logic dictates that Diggs may have lost a little bit of a step. He's 30 and will turn 31 during the season and plays a skill position based on speed, twitch, and reaction time. That said, I don't think he fell off a cliff between week 6 and week 10 of last season and I believe he can still play at a high level. The OC and style of offense changed and he was no longer the focal point. They instead decided to run the ball more and distribute passes to a wider variety of receivers. When they did that, the team was much more successful. The totality of the circumstances led to the trade, which was a reasonable outcome for both parties: Age 30/31 (may have lost a bit of a step, even if negligible) Change in focus of offense Big cap hit coming next year Ability to recoup a 2nd rounder (the mid-round/late round picks involved being intentionally ignored) which may not have been available next year A volatile personality/potential friction with teammates & coaches and related distractions I was shocked by the trade when it happened, but, in retrospect, it was time.
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What’s Your Most Memorable Bills Game?
msw2112 replied to NoHuddleKelly12's topic in The Stadium Wall
I was not at the Roland Hooks game, but was a kid playing touch football in the street in front of the house with the neighborhood kids while listening to Van Miller call it on the radio. Never forget it. -
What’s Your Most Memorable Bills Game?
msw2112 replied to NoHuddleKelly12's topic in The Stadium Wall
I did not attend that game, but remember exactly where I was when Simpson made that interception. One of my great old Bills memories. My favorite and most memorable game that I attended in person was the Denver game in 1990 when the Bills scored 3 times in 77 seconds. This game has been well-chronicled on this board. It was the loudest and craziest atmosphere I've ever experienced at the stadium. I was at the Comeback game too, which was awesome, but this was the most memorable for me. For road games, my favorite was the season opener at LA a couple of years ago when the Bills shellacked the defending Super Bowl Champs Rams on their home field, with Bills fans taking over the place. -
My least favorite is Mowins, followed by Spiro Dedes. With Mowins, her voice is like nails on a chalkboard to me and I find Dedes to be extremely annoying. I don't dislike Collinsworth as much as some do here. I really like Jim Nantz and Romo was excellent his first few seasons, but he's gotten a little big for his britches and his attention to detail seems to have gone by the wayside. It seems that once he became a star broadcaster, he stopped putting in the work and he wings it during games. Greg Olsen is excellent and it's too bad he's being pushed down by Brady, who has never done the job before. I think that Brady will be good - despite his whiny voice, he seems to be a good public speaker and is comfortable on camera, and obviously is a great student of the game - but Olsen earned that spot on the merits of his performance.
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I love UB, but for him to commit there over Michigan State or Pitt is a bit of a surprise, given the relative prestige of the programs and conferences. Perhaps he wants to be closer to his brother or he just thinks he'll get to start as a freshman at UB and might not get that opportunity at MSU and Pitt. With the way the transfer portal is these days, I've read that a lot of guys are going to smaller, less prestigious schools as a freshman and sophomore in order to get early playing time, with the plan to succeed and then transfer "up" to a major program. We'll see what happens with Rousseau, but I hope he does really well at UB and that his presence in town inspires his big brother to have a great season.
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According to PFF Connor McGovern is good
msw2112 replied to 78thealltimegreat's topic in The Stadium Wall
Let's hope that Elam is "that guy" this year. And consider the famous Marv Levy quote that if you start making decisions based on what the fans want, you'll soon be sitting with them. I have strong opinions about the Bills and what they do, but I give McDermott and Beane a lot of leeway. Both seem to be hard working, intelligent guys who take their jobs very seriously, so I've got to think that in most cases, they know a whole lot more about what they're doing than I do (or any of the rest of us). There's also the old NE Patriots and Bill Walsh philosophy that its better to get rid of a guy a year too early than a year too late. That's probably the case with Morse, Poyer, and possibly even Diggs. McGovern may or may not work out at Center, but they have a good option at guard with Edwards and after the draft they now have SVP to develop and back up at Center. I think McGovern will start the season at C, but if SVP has a great camp and shows well in the early games (maybe there will be some blowouts and he'll get some garbage time snaps), he could take over the job later in the season, leaving McGovern to battle it out with Edwards for the Guard spot. -
I have not seen any of them.
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I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
msw2112 replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
I don't disagree. I don't think they wanted to give up assets to move up for one of the top WRs in the draft (which I agree with, given the cost) and they were more interested in a big, contested-catch WR (Coleman) than a small speedy one (Worthy). They graded Coleman and a few others about the same, so after looking at the numbers, they decided to trade back to get more draft assets while still getting one of their guys. I was hoping they'd double (or triple) dip on WRs in the draft, maybe taking a shot at Franklin or one of the other remaining guys, but I guess they figure that a low cost veteran like Claypool is more ready to contribute than a mid-round rookie. I think that Claypool will surprise a lot of people this season, and here are the reasons: Playing with Josh Allen as his QB. He was very productive with Big Ben in Pittsburgh who was on his last legs - nowhere close to where Allen is today. He has talent - size, speed, and draft pedigree. His career is on the line. This is his last chance. If he blows it this time, he's done. He's likely been humbled by the last couple of seasons and sees where things will go if he doesn't clean up his act. -
I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
msw2112 replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
You're not wrong, but some other factors to consider about what they did this year and why: Diggs was a distraction that needed to be removed (and they got a 2nd round pick in the pick exchange) They have serious salary cap limitations Davis is likely highly overpaid at $13M (and I'm a Davis fan) MVS/Claypool are likely better WRs than Sherfield/Harty, for less money, so nothing to complain about, particularly when they signed Samuel to be the gadget-guy (jet sweeps, end arounds, etc.) Coleman is not the overall talent that Diggs is/was, but the team lacked a big WR who can make a play even when he's not open. That seems to be Coleman's specialty. So while he doesn't bring what Diggs did bring, he does bring something that Diggs did not. -
I must be an old fart too, but I agree with pretty much everything you said here. I'm not a big fan of superhero or comic book movies, and am not big into "franchise" films. I'm much more interested in a new story about "real" people that deal with realistic drama that people face in their lives than about a fictional character that not only never existed, but never could. I can stretch for characters like John McClain in DieHard (the first one!) or the Jason Bourne types, as they're at least "real" people with extreme human talents. But that's me. My wife has become a big Dune fan. She read the book and bought the series of books. I've tried getting into it because the new release is supposed to be one of the best films of the year, so I'd like to establish a "base" before watching the 2024 movie, but I'm struggling to get through the older ones first. I watched the one from the 1980s and it was pretty bad and I fell asleep during the one from 2021. Maybe I was just tired and I will try again. I'm told that the books are extremely complex. And back to the Buffalo Bills connection, I could see Josh Allen doing some Hollywood work after he retires. He's charismatic, relatable and funny. Maybe a better looking Peyton Manning?
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I'm really starting to love this WR room. We quietly got better
msw2112 replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
I didn't ask you to dig up WR data. That said, your data makes sense, I have no issue with it and I don't question it. Where I think your argument is falling short is where you say "The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to defense." Based on the last 2 drafts and last 2 free agent classes, that's simply not true. Perhaps they allocated too many resources to defense earlier in Allen's career, realized that it wasn't working, and have shifted their approach to resource allocation. Their highest selection in the last 2 drafts were for pass catchers (a WR and TE), their 2nd round pick in 23 was for a guard and their biggest (in terms of dollars spent) Free Agent acquisitions (from other teams) in the last 2 seasons were on offensive players (Samuel, a WR this season and McGovern, a G/C last season). I should add that we've been talking about "best resources" so I'm only looking at the 1st and 2nd rounds and most expensive FA acquisitions. So you can argue that over the course of time, averaging out the numbers, the Bills have allocated more resources to defense than offense. I agree with that argument. But they do not "continue to" do that. Based on the last 2 offseasons, their biggest investments (allocations of "best resources") have been on the offensive side of the ball. I think we can agree on this - we'd like to see these investments pay off, regardless of which side of the ball they are on. -
I see Justin Simmons at the top of the Safety list. Wasn't he a popular choice here on TBD? With Edwards signed and Bishop drafted, while flirtations with Hyde continue, I don't see Simmons happening at this point. I could see them taking a shot at one of the Edge rushers on a 1-year deal while the evaluate what they have in Javon Solomon.