The Frankish Reich

True. The war on China will just encourage a faster race to the bottom. China is no longer the cheapest labor manufacturer. Vietnam, Laos, Bangladesh, Indonesia ... the manufacturing hubs continue to move south and west.

Why can't I buy this Toyota? https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/what-a-15-000-electric-suv-says-about-u-s-china-car-rivalry-43cd564e?st=2PsQJy&reflink=article_copyURL_share SHANGHAI—The offer sounds like a scam—a new Toyota electric-powered sport-utility vehicle for about $15,000, complete with sunroof and cup holders. But the Toyota bZ3X is real, and it is actually on sale starting at that price. There is a catch: To buy one, you have to be in China. Economists talk about "utility." The value of something relative to something else. Yes, allowing Toyota to import this car would impact the sales of Teslas and GM EVs and whatever. But it would provide huge benefits to lots and lots of American consumers who wouldn't be stuck with ultra-expensive monthly payments, who would appreciate a truly affordable (and EV to boot) well made vehicle to serve their daily needs. What kind of communistic "you must support the American state-sponsored vehicle producers" system do we live in? Tesla is better-positioned than other American automakers to compete in China, since its models have always been all-electric and it makes the vehicles in Shanghai with Chinese batteries. Yet it has fallen behind in another aspect that makes China special: speed of development. Tesla has two models widely available—Model 3 and Model Y—and both have been on the market for years. China’s BYD has about 25 models, according to the market-analysis firm Inovev, and is constantly introducing more. Am I saying that the "communist" Chinese auto industry is more openly competitive - classic capitalist, where those who don't innovate fall behind and go out of business - than the American auto industry? Yes. Yes I am.

Never grew out of his Ayn Rand/Rush phase.

Trump mocking the holy Catholic and apostolic church: good fun! Some gay French dancers mocking the holy Catholic and apostolic money-printing Olympics: sacrilege!

Yep, he's going straight to hell. But remember: his hand was floating a few inches above the Bible.

We're almost there.

No doubt that's part of it. But I think he overplays our hand. What worked in real estate deals - the old "I'll just walk away if you don't take my offer" or "this price is only good for one day; tomorrow it will be higher" - doesn't work so well in international economic or security deals. Add to that the mixed messaging on tariffs. Are they also intended to shift our tax base from income taxes to tariffs? That implies tariffs are a permanent fixture. But how does that fit with the bargaining chip theory? It's still a mess.

I understand the point. I am even willing to concede that there is value in nudging the world economy away from overdependence on China. But the strategy could work without the chaos. Again, take a look at the Trans-Pacific Partnership. It was a really good agreement that would have increased U.S. influence in the non-China far east, but it was shot down by people (both sides, including Trump and Hillary) for narrow/U.S. politics reasons. Could I (and the markets) accept something like an escalating tariff rate where tariffs go up for each quarter in which no progress is made in negotiations? Yeah, I suppose, even though I'm a free trade advocate by political and economic philosophy. But again: chaos. And that's what the WSJ logistics expert interviewed in the article focuses on. A lot of small businesses will be extremely stressed and many will go bankrupt if it continues.

Exactly. I worked in DC a long time ago (started under Bush 41, ended under Clinton's 2nd term). So I've seen these predictions come and go. There was "The Coming Republican Majority" thing under Reagan/Bush 41. Then Clinton won (with some thanks to Ross Perot). Then it was a golden age of centrist Democrats coming. Then Bush 43 won (with some thanks to Ralph Nader and Florida senior citizens), and it was the new kinder/gentler Republican Age with lots of "what will Democrats do now" thinking. Then it was Obama and Republicans In Disarray. Then it was Trump's New Coalition and Dems in Disarray. Then it was Trump Has Taken the Republicans Down a Political Dead End and the desire for a return to normalcy. Then it was The Revenge of Trumpism and Biden/Kamala Have Taken Democrats Down a Dead End and the end of (non-white/non-LGBTQ) identity politics. American political coalitions shift all the time. What won in 2012 doesn't win in 2028. What won in 2024 may not win in 2028. "The party in power is always smug and arrogant; the party out of power is always insane."

I agree - had a fantastic vacation there.

Oh no, not the Aussies too! Trump is doing a wonderful job at bringing that pro-American coalition together. And this one didn't even need a 52nd state threat.

How's this for "taking on" the military-industrial complex? https://nypost.com/2025/05/02/us-news/trump-budget-calls-for-more-than-1t-in-defense-spending-massive-cuts-to-education-foreign-aid-and-environment/

Really an excellent article from the pure business side. The ripple effects of the ridiculous tariffs (which the markets do believe will be undone before fully enacted) will continue for some time.

Next you'll hear that she has a deal for the Bowser International Golf Result in Dubai.

Immigrant invader! Refusing to assimilate. Probably speaks that Low Dutch thing instead of English.

As the righties are always quick to say: Now let's see Trump post himself as the next Ayatollah.

Surprisingly strong April jobs report shows resilience of the Biden Economy!

Nothing on point here. Your initial argument (cut and pasted from an old CATO article) suggesting that the U.S. economy in the 1920s continued to grow despite (not because of) a tariff increase; therefore, the current tariff increase poses no problem. Which ignores the fact that it is 100 years later, with a far more interconnected world economy, and that Trump's proposed increase, when it goes fully into effect in something like 70 days, will be approximately 25 times greater than that 1922 increase. As the WSJ editorial said, Trump seems to believe that if a little bit of something is good, a lot of that something must be a whole lot better. A lot of MAGA types are so seduced by his shoot from the hip nonsense that they can no longer even comprehend how outrageous his proposals are. Not just twice as large as the largest prior tariff increase, but 25 times larger.

What nonsense. Even if we did only go from an average weighted tariff of 1.5% to 10%, you do get that that's a 6.5X increase? 650 percent increase? Nothing has ever been close. Not even 1832 (boy you went digging, I gotta give that to you!) And of course we only have (ostensibly) a 90 day pause on the big ones. Mr. 90 day/180 day/270 day/oh, let's forget I ever said something that stupid with my confusing chart in hand and move on with things.

OK, I'm an old guy. Not that old, but with old guy consumer habits. I know what shoe brands/styles I like. So I know the size/brand and check out Amazon (which owns Zappos). Sometimes I'll try things on in a Nordstrom Rack type store where you don't need someone to fetch the box, see what I like/fits, then go home and Google it to find it cheaper. True athletic shoes (think hiking boots)? I still have to get those in person. Fit is too important.

Did we win the Cold War? Too soon to tell. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/23/back-in-the-ussr-lenin-statues-and-soviet-flags-reappear-in-russian-controlled-cities

Try it. You'll never go back.