The Frankish Reich

We have a lot of transfer/welfare programs in America. Most are stupidly inefficient. You have a VAT, and then you consolidate those welfare programs into something like a minimum income transfer payment in lieu of food stamps, etc. I’m not pretending it’s simple to do, but you can protect those in the bottom quintile while moving away from the progressive and intrusive income tax. How is it that the only two politicians in my lifetime who have gotten traction with a true taxation reform system are fringey Republicans Steve Forbes and Herman Cain? Is there no one out there who’s interested in looking at our system as a whole, comparing it to those of other developed countries, and starting from scratch?

Newark and Detroit - you'll get no argument from me. Memphis and Baltimore have their charms. Got a free afternoon? I'll find some interesting stuff to see there.

Where are all the conspiracy theorists now? The Dems don’t want Biden to run again. And suddenly classified shows up in his garage? But seriously, a window of opportunity has just opened. DUMP BIDEN! Just not for Kamala. Or Pete. I had to look that one up.

I’m sure there are, but right now nothing’s coming to mind.

1. Miserable climate. Insufferably hot/humid in the summer, but not offset by a really pleasant winter like Florida. 2. Godawful traffic. 3. The 2nd highest property crime rate major US cities (Miami). 4. Lack of interesting natural or cultural attractions for visitors. I had a day of dead time there on a business trip a few years ago and multiple locals told me to go to the Coca-Cola museum. Which I did. EDIT: I see the MLK historic site was greatly expanded in 2018, after I was there the last time. So that would be my only reason for visiting other than a football game. offset I guess by a really, really nice football stadium.

Ugh. I really dislike Atlanta. More than any other major US city. Maybe KC will lose in the divisional round.

There’s so much misinformation here about the IRS going after low earners. Here’s the stats: https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/what-are-the-odds-being-audited.html Other than the 8.9% audit rate for reported zero AGI filers* the chances of being audited never exceeded 0.6% all the way up to $500,000 declared AGI. And then only a 1.1% chance up to a reported $1.0 million AGI. Over TEN MILLION dollars in reported AGI? Only an 8.6 percent chance of being audited. We largely have an honor system when it comes to tax filing. As a great Republican once said, “trust but verify.” And verify = audit in the tax world. *so why the high rate for zero AGI reporters? Well, they’re filing tax returns showing zero AGI, so they’re seeking big refunds, often despite big earnings or big 1099s. So by definition they are claiming big “adjustments” (that’s what the “A” stands for) to their Gross Income. And that often warrants a closer look. Even so, it’s still under ten percent of these zero declared AGI filers who got audited.

But is he a Matt Barkley?

Based on the brief summary I saw of the bill, I wouldn’t want it to pass and it won’t. But … I’m glad someone is starting the debate again. The debate about reforming the tax code to be less focused on income and more on consumption. Yes, this would be regressive if passes as is, but there are ways of addressing that. The worst thing to do is to add yet another layer of complexity to the current income tax system, and that’s where we’re headed unless/until Congress is ready to rethink a more fair and efficient way of funding the government. Two cheers for some wingnut named Buddy.

Is the 10 coming from a Dolphins fumble recovery/INT? Because I’m not sure Skyler Thompson has contributed to 10 points in his career so far.

Could cure it? You apparently haven’t tried swallowing the UV light and washing it down with bleach. Don’t knock it until you try it.

They won’t. Not because of the stadium or because of the team moving. Because “the Bills.” I predict a name change within 10 years. That bison slaughtering interloper! Seriously, our branding is all about the bison. Buffalo Bill is basically unknown to the younger generations and it’s been 60 years since they even used his image. Buffalo Bisons. (Pay the minor league team a few bucks if you need to). Or is the plural of “bison” still “bison?” We can get a grammar consultant.

True. But there’s the Bridgewater factor too. So something like Dolphins + 7 with Tua starting (basically Bills 4 point faves on a neutral field). Dolphins + 10 with Teddy starting. Dolphins + 16 (more? He’s that bad) with Skyler Thompson starting. Try to “knock him around” bothers me too. Try to bring pressure to throw off that quick rhythm passing game? Yeah, I’m fine with that. Although you do risk not getting to him and letting Tyreek/Waddle break one for 70 yards. I prefer “try to disrupt the receivers to keep them from getting off the line cleanly.”

The system is a terrible one. I will bring up Trump again not (believe me! You won’t) for political reasons, but just because his and the Trump Org’s tax returns are in the news. Trump Org man Alan Weisselberg pleaded guilty to tax fraud. The fraud: the Trump Org paid his kid’s private school tuition (in Manhattan, so that’s big private college type money), and he didn’t claim that payment as personal income. Really an easy case. You can’t do that as his kid’s education doesn’t benefit the company. He makes a ton of money. Let’s say the tuition was $100,000 over two years. If the Trump Org had paid him $100,00 more in salary, he would’ve brought home about $48,000. (Fed + NYS + NYC). So doing this scam netted him about $50,000. Not a ton of money for him, and he risked getting convicted/going to jail for $50,000. He risked it because he knew there was almost no chance this scheme would’ve been revealed. Except he was wrong, because everything Trump is under scrutiny now. You can debate whether that’s fair or good. You can debate whether exorbitant marginal tax rates cause such behavior. You can’t debate that this was tax fraud. It was. And under our ridiculously complex system, only an audit discovers that fraud, which no doubt takes places in tens (hundreds? Millions?) of other places all the time.

And next step on the Chiefs decision tree: “if he has committed a crime, can they prove it? Is there video? If not, then go ahead and sign him!

No. I don’t know your situation, and I’m sure the majority of business owners are on the up and up. Look, I hate our tax system. If I could be assured that the progressive income tax would never come back, I’d be all for a VAT/consumption tax + a low flat tax to finance the government. Tax compliance exerts a dead weight cost on all US economic activity. But that’s not what we have now, so we need to trust but verify. And audits are hated, but how else do you verify?

I asked our accountants to weigh in. So that’s exactly what I said: my impression. And no, it hasn’t “escaped the IRS.” That’s why they want to shore up the ranks of auditors. I thought that’s what we were discussing. You sound almost like someone with something to hide … And believe me, it’s not all high end taxpayers. Many were recent immigrants claiming 5 “nephews” they had custody of, getting back way more in so called “refundable” tax credits than they ever paid in, all assisted by tax preparers who sometimes did it this way without their knowledge.

I know we have some accountants who comment here. I’d like to hear their take on this. I’m not an accountant, but I have had occasion to review lots of tax filings in my line of work. My impression: there’s not all that much cheating (or room to cheat) among salaried employees, even those who are very well compensated. But the world of business owners/self-employed/consultants? That’s a different story. And it includes the big money types (Trump’s taxes) all the way down to the construction contractor. And they rarely get audited.

Look, there’s a lot, lot of tax cheating going on. Including on things like child tax credits, including tax returns from middle and lower income people, some of whom happen to be the immigrants decried for getting tax payer funded benefits. I pay my share honestly. I have no problem with a government making sure that other people do too.

WOWY — With Or Without You. From The Ringer, on Miami and Tua: “Miami’s only win in a game without him came against Joe Flacco and the Jets in Week 18. Tagovailoa also finished the season third in EPA per dropback (0.18), behind Mahomes and Allen; backups Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson averaged minus-0.03 and minus-0.27 EPA per dropback, respectively.” https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/1/10/23547484/nfl-power-rankings-wild-card-playoffs-eagles-bills-chiefs-bengals In a futile attempt to prevent “Tua is garbage” responses: No, he is not Josh Allen. We all know that. But he is essential to this Dolphins offense. Teddy Bridgewater is a better than average backup, but they’ve been terrible with him. Skyler Thompson actually is replacement level garbage. If Tua is in there (and stays in there) and doesn’t show any immediate ill effects of the latest concussion, this will be a game. If he’s out, it’s a blowout.

Bolsonaro in Florida. My questions/comments. - did he travel on a diplomatic passport? Or a regular passport/tourist visa? If the latter, we’d expect it to be a 6-month stay. If he wants to stay longer, well, I guess he could apply for asylum. Everyone else does. - Assuming he was admitted for 6 months, you really can’t get rid of him until his visa expires (assuming no asylum application), or until Brazil initiates a formal extradition request (which still takes time - he could fight it, including by claiming he’d be tortured if we send him back). Reminds me of the Shah of Iran situation. (Someone revive all those “Shah’s Spleen” threads!) - DeSantis would have nothing to do with this. He doesn’t issue passports/visas and doesn’t work the CBP inspection stations at the airport. Did Bolsonaro think Florida would provide him with a lot of support? Of course he did. And he’s right I’m because there’s probably tens of thousands of very politically active Brazilians there who like him, and Florida politicians are responsive to them. But that’s just Florida, not Ron.

Not their fault that the Broncos and Raiders both collapsed at the same time. KC is now like the Pats of old, basically starting every season with at least 4-6 wins in the bath thanks to their weak divisional schedule. Exactly. For years people have said the Monday after the SB - America’s leading call-in sick day - should be a holiday. And now the Super Bowl is just one week before the long Presidents Day weekend. They’re on a collision course. Just do it already. Super Bowl/Presidents Day long weekend.

Geno was really good this year, including in the win over the Rams. One of his TD passes was just amazingly perfect, absolutely the equal of Josh. I have no idea where this came from. He showed signs last year subbing for Wilson, but I just assumed the start to this year was a lucky streak. But no. Really good. Like “second tier behind Mahomes/Allen/Burrow/Herbert” good. So after a year and 4 games or whatever, I am now convinced he is the next Rich Gannon, late career bloomer.

Good one. And I’ve just gotta say: what a remarkable recovery that we now feel able to laugh again.

I agree. I think they would have been about the same mediocre team with Trubisky starting all year instead of turning the reins over to Pickett. As for Trubisky thinking he would’ve fared better elsewhere: where, exactly? I’m assuming he wanted another shot at starting, but no GM thought of him as anything more than a backup or caretaker starter at most. The Steelers probably gave him the best shot. He failed.