The Frankish Reich

With a hat tip to two of our best commenters on the football side-- 1. I'm not surprised that Trump won the electoral college. I am surprised that he won the popular vote - the first time a Republican has done so since 2004. It's certainly better than 2016 because we have some clarity. Trump now owns whatever happens politically (and yes, economically) for the next 4 years. He has the Senate and very likely the House, and a compliant Supreme Court. He sets the legislative and foreign policy agenda. Last time he set aside immigration, health care, etc. in favor of Paul Ryan's more standard Republican tax cutting agenda. If there isn't a strong comprehensive immigration reform bill in the first few months I'll have to assume we're in for more of the same. 2. Democrats obviously need to rethink their coalition. Highly educated whites + lesser educated black and brown people isn't going to work. It was an unstable coalition to begin with since there really weren't enough common interests. It just blew up. Good. Trump refashioned the Republican Party/coalition in his own likeness; he will now refashion the Democratic Party/coalition as they respond to the new reality. Where is their Bill Clinton? 3. Bond markets are pricing in increased inflationary expectations. Running for President is easy if you don't issue comprehensive policy plans but just try to target certain groups/states. No taxes on tips! No taxes on social security! But there's deficits, and there's real associated spending cuts that need to happen. 4. Abortion. Exit polls show about a 2:1 split in favor of some Roe-type abortion rights. It remains untenable to have a large swath of the country with abortion bans in this situation. We aren't done with the abortion wars by any means. My prediction: it will involve interstate travel to obtain an abortion. And I don't see how that resolves in a pretty way. 5. Hope for better governance? Well, some smart people have it. Here's one: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/what-is-the-best-case-scenario-for-a-trump-presidency.html#comments. I could go along with this! But this is a fantasy. It would depend on having adult, experienced policy advisors. That's not what Trump has promised, and that's not our experience with him. Example from that blog: Trade Policy: Moderate tariff increases on China. No Chinese electric cars for us. But drop the “tariffs on everything” language. He can always say his rhetoric was a threat to get other countries to lower their tariffs. Let’s instead talk tough against our enemies but shift toward “friend-shoring”, maintaining or even lowering tariffs with allied nations, such as Canada, Europe, and possibly India, as part of a broader strategy to contain China’s influence. What are the chances something like this actually happens? 6. The 2028 race begins today. Trump is term limited. JD Vance will be the initial anointed one. Are other Republicans going to clear the field for him? Umm, no. Ron DeSantis isn't waiting. Several women are ready to grab that First Woman President that Hillary and Kamala couldn't deliver on. On the Democratic side, watch how they play this. I said a Bill Clinton type is what they need, but a significant faction will say why they lost is they marginalized their leftist wing. That wing will storm back. My take: Obama's success wasn't replicable; he was a rare political talent who built a cult of personality that was, of course, personal to him. Not transferable to Hillary or Biden or Kamala. Trump is likewise a rare political talent. The cult of personality around him is not transferable to DeSantis or Ted Cruz or Don Jr. So these are party identifications built on individuals who will exit the scene, not built on stable coalitions or policy choices. In other words, it's wide open. 7. We used to say That come the day We'd all be making songs Or finding better words These ideas never lasted long The way is up Along the road The air is growing thin Too many friends who tried Were blown off this mountain with the wind Meet on the ledge We're gonna meet on the ledge When my time is up I'm gonna see all my friends Meet on the ledge We're gonna meet on the ledge If you really mean it, it all comes round again 8. No one is rioting or filing lawsuits or screaming fraud. Maybe, just maybe, that phase of American politics has calmed down. We can hope.

Frank's Big-Bellied Defensive Tackle Rule: every big-bellied defensive tackle will have exactly two good seasons in an eight year career; you just never know which one and which season. I count exactly one good Jordan Phillips season, his first stint with he Bills. So the odds are in our favor.

Good point. Still: was Bernie known as a libertarian in any sense of the word? For smaller government? I'm sure it all fits together somehow. and are you sure that was a phantom punch?

I just fail to understand how that leftward drift of mainstream Dems would cause anyone to support the most successful ultra-left candidate in presidential history since Debs. I understand it as a “we want an outsider” thing (Bernie/Trump) but don’t pretend it makes any sense as a reaction against the leftward tilt of mainstream democrats.

Remember, Rogan was a democratic socialist for a while there too. His Bernie Bro phase. Most people get over this before they turn 30.

Steve Rattner is the best at explaining these things. The only reason to watch Morning Joe.

Oh, I’ve dragged them out. Some multiple times.

Is that blood I see coming out of her ... whatever?

Jerry worships some lame-ass gods if they're gonna be appeased by the ritual sacrifice of just Mike McCarthy. They may demand an additional cheerleader or two plus next year's 6th rounder.

Hey Dads! Make sure your teenage daughter dumps that beautiful baby on you to raise! It's in your best interest, and we'll make sure to do what's best for you whether you like it or not.

All true. His lawyers are arguing that Musk misspoke when he said a person who signed his fealty to the 1st/2nd Amendment pledge would be chosen AT RANDOM to receive a million dollars. They're saying that the Musk group would vet them to see if they'd be good spokespeople for his PAC, and that this makes them contractors rather than "winners." Suckered again by the world's richest man as he tries to weasel his way out of a plan that clearly ran afoul of the law as written.

I don't know ... and what explains this one?

Hair is necessary but not sufficient. Not even gorgeous hair

Maybe. But I still think the rule applies! Clinton/Trump: live girls. Morning Joe: dead girl. That ex Gov of NJ: live boy.

Right. Hair is more important than brains in American politics. Our last elected 100% baldy was Eisenhower.

Time honored political/celebrity tradition. Let’s be honest, the old maxim still applies. They’re fine unless they’re caught with a live boy or a dead girl.

He did have that brain reduction thing

Sorry, couldn’t hear you form 61 MOTHER*****ING YARDS AWAY

With our “early voting” advantage and our “turn out the vote” operations and our “dedicated poll workers” and “secure ballot drop box” operations, I’m feeling pretty good.

Thank you. Right down the middle.

Stable genius. I like how he’s tried to recharacterize “rambling of a senile old man” as “the weave,” like he’s a master at some new art form.

Thank God for this board. Without it I would have to occasionally google “is Keith Olbermann still alive”

Why? At least he’s out there making actual predictions unlike all the people who post crap like “ultra Orthodox Jews moving heavily toward Trump”

With the huge numbers of early voters I can’t imagine any campaign events will have any impact at all. I mean, Kamala could give an actual bj on stage and it wouldn’t change anything. Or in light of what we just saw, Trump could give one.