Deranged Rhino

It's all fun and games until one side realizes the other hasn't even begun to fight yet.

The odds of them re-taking the Senate have plummeted this month. The House is a tougher nut to crack post the GOP purge of 2016-2018. I haven't really looked at any of the toss-up races to have a sense of their chances. They need to flip 32 or 33 seats, and most people have the DNC losing at least 10 of those -- a lot of work left to do, but if things keep trending in this direction they might have a shot.

In order for people to be compelled to self-reflect they must first be made to question whether or not they are right or wrong. The biggest problem, the most dangerous problem, of living in bifurcated realities as we are/have been doing for the past several years is that no one questions if they're right. They believe they're right because their chosen echo chambers reinforce that idea daily/hourly -- this cuts across the partisan aisle of course. I just had a lunch conversation with my lady about what happened in WI. She kept saying, about the 17 year old, "he just shot into a crowd"... even after I explained (and showed her) the video that shows he clearly did not just "shoot into a crowd" and was in fact defending his very life after trying to disengage from the fracus. The conversation moved on, and a few minutes later circled back to that topic and again she just said reflexively "he shot into a crowd". She's a very intelligent woman, deeply passionate and caring -- yet because her media sources drilled that into her head, it's still her go-to reflex when discussing the topic. Bifurcated realities: both seem legitimate to those living in them, but in the end only one can survive. That's what the next few months (years) will be all about -- for better or worse.

A man who's never met a lie he doesn't love to spread

As fun as it would be, I do agree. I thought it was silly a month ago when the campaign people were talking about making a real push for NY. It's still silly sounding to me now, but the campaign seems to think they have a real chance at it. ?‍♂️ On the pure analytical side: If NY is that vulnerable, even if it stays blue, then imagine what that means for states that are more purple, or the popular vote count. I know some pollsters have Trump already with 320 EC votes in his pocket, but now there's talk that he'll get the popular vote as well. Joe's struggling to match Clinton in WI, MN, MI, and PA -- but also in OR, WA, and now (apparently) NY.

It's always interesting for me spending time with that particular friend group. They're all volunteers on the campaign, all involved in local DNC campaigns/organizing. Most are writers or producers in town, a few are academics/professors. The couple we're closest to in that group we've known for years -- yesterday they were telling us that they just got Irish citizenship "just in case" When I last saw them in person, a few weeks ago, the husband -- who isn't involved in the DNC but is somewhere to the left of Tibs (but with a sense of humor about it) -- was going on and on about how Biden was going to win 40 states by the time the election comes. So a big swing in just under a month. Yesterday their faces all looked like the CNN panel reacting to the RNC convention

The 5th volume of the Senate Intel report shows no proof of collusion or conspiracy, in fact it completely contradicts its own findings within the report. It spends much of the time talking about the Steele Dossier's claims in depth (not adding anything new to it, just discussing it) -- then at the end of the document concludes by saying the Steele Dossier was BS. Stone wasn't charged or tried with anything having to do with collusion or conspiracy (they mean the same thing in this sense). And, in fact, during his trial it was confirmed through multiple pieces of evidence Stone had no connection to Wikileaks. Instead, he lied and said he had one -- but did not. He relied on MSM reports to conclude the DNC emails would be dropped by Assange at some point. The most serious charge for Stone was witness intimidation (which he's guilty of, even if it was a petty instance of it and the person he threatened said he wasn't really threatened because that's just how Roger is). To date there is still zero evidence of any Russian/Trump team collusion/conspiracy. And in fact, all the examples used to try to make that case turned out to be set ups or have ties directly back to the DNC, CIA, or FBI -- like the infamous Trump Tower meeting (set up entirely by the Clinton machine, MI6, and CIA), or Kilimnik (he wasn't a Russian asset, he was a US asset), or Popadopolous (set up by Halper/CIA), or Flynn (clean, despite being squeezed by CIA, MI6, FBI and the Obama White House)... each and every time they've screamed "COLLUSION!" they were really highlighting where they played super dirty. And now there are zero people on Trump's team who have been charged, tried, or convicted of anything having to do with the 2016 election or Russian interference -- while Obama's team has one person who's already pleaded guilty for falsifying evidence in order to illegally spy on Trump's campaign. (I know I owed you a PM on this subject, apologies it's been a busy week here )

"Panic" was the word used by the CA Biden campaign staffers whom I spoke to yesterday. No Chance Joe truly has no chance.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1299923590410690562

That's hilarious

MN, WI, PA -- take one, and it's over. Take all three? Landslide.

The number I hear from polling people whom I trust (and campaign staff) is that he's at 18% now -- that's up 12% (roughly) from what he got in 2016. If that number holds, he wins in a walk. But the projected polls (which sounds like completely horse-hockey to me on its face -- a projection of a poll which is already a projection ) have some thinking he's going to wind up with over 25% by November. That would absolutely be the end of the DNC. I'm with you in doubting they're that high... but if they are? Look out. The campaign really wants to eclipse 20% on November 3rd, that's their goal. It looked silly a year ago, now it still looks silly just not as much.

Worth the time:

Oh, absolutely. The campaign said they don’t intend to draw crowds due to safety concerns — which is redundant but hilarious. Boy, those internals must be brutal right now to force them to change tact despite having a “10 point lead”

So much for the hidin’ Biden strategy. Good for him.