538 is run by Democrats. It’s a joke.
The final NY Times Siena Poll in 2020 - Biden will win by FOURTEEN
Biden Takes Lead Over Trump in 2020 Presidential Poll
Nov 3, 2020 — A New York Times/Siena College poll finds that Joseph R. Biden Jr. is ahead of the president by 14 points,
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/us/politics/trump-biden-poll-nyt-upshot-siena-college.html
There’s more - have I mentioned yet that 538 is a joke?