D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

I don't think the Bills even know at this point. It gets down to whether any or all the QBs are drafted at the top. There is a very real possibility that nobody feels like drafting one of these guys before 10. On the other hand, if Bortles or Manziel is taken, the big six become in play potentially.

I come at this a little differently than some on this board. I am not a big believer in the commonly used phrase it is a "copy cat" league. This implies that everyone starts doing what the successful teams have just done, and it is believed to be the correct approach. Some may be trying to copy, but it is in many cases the wrong strategy. There are a multitude of ways to be successful, and it is your organizations job to figure out what works for you. The copy cat league thing is the kind of phrase used by former players and broadcasters that sounds great in retrospect, but fails the BS test. Seattle has won by hitting on a number of later round picks, especially at QB,CB,LB etc, probably not a strategy that you can count on if you are some of these other franchises. They have also emphasized speed, defense, and the ability to run on offense. I just don't see that in retrospect they copied anyone's approach of recent success. Not NE, not GB, not NO, not Indy. There are many examples in history of teams coming along and just being more creative,and more innovative. They may have success due to something that was tried before, but it is not always what is being done by the previous champs. That is all retrospective media talk. Bottom line, if the Bills want to be successful, they will have to create the right mix for their situation.

There is so much uncertainty with regard to injury, contracts, coaching changes etc. that long range planning in the NFL is much less than 5 years. You have to put together a playoff squad as a coach quickly, like 2 or 3 years. And, then start to win some playoff games. If not, we all know what happens, we start over again.

Absolutely! It is called depth. Not planning for injuries at key spots is crazy.

Doesn't trading up or down depend on your needs, and who's available? If the QBs drop then it changes things for the Bills. Some of the blue chip guys at the top will get scarfed up, and you start to ask yourself if anybody left really gives you value at 9. That doesn't mean they aren't great players who are left, but you could get them down a little bit further and an extra pick. The opposite choice would be to trade up and get a guy who you believe will help you over the mountain. I'm not so sure the Bills don't have multiple needs that can't be filled without trading down. I guess it depends how far along you think our roster is at this point. The question is one guy who makes a huge difference, or getting more quantity/quality value down the draft.

Ithe the somesmdkmshh The above trade backs that yield picks 30-41-47-56-73 has plentiful options possible that fill needs. OL Moses,Kounjijo,JJames, Richardson , Bitonio,Filo, GJackson, Yankey. REC ASJ,Niklas,Moncreif,Latimer,Adams etc. RB Hyde, Mason, Hill, Awilliams, West, Seastrunk,. DB Roby, Joyner, Gaines, Ward. DE/lb Chricton, Van Noy, Borland, Skov. Getting 5 guys from the above list doesn't sound half bad.

I also heard San Francisco may want to move up and has a lot of picks. This would be a second trade down and Im not sure I like it. But, If we traded #16 to them we would then have 30,41,47,56,73,129,149,224. 8 Picks with 5 in top 75!

, Right now we have the 9,41,73,109,149 and 224. Trade with Dallas our 9 and 109 for their 16 and 47. They draft Aaron Donald. We now have 3 in top 50!

I couldn't agree with you more!

As usual nothing to offer. Scott Chandler is an actual TE!!

Because he is the biggest dick on this forum. Don't waste your time on him. He has nothing to offer. He gets his jollyies from criticizing and pretending he's the sheriff.

This! People should be pleased with a blue chipper from that group. That means Robinson/Matthew/Lewan/Ebron/Evans/Watkins...Clowney too.

The most important thing for us is the QBs not to drop!!! We need at least one and preferably 2 or 3 drafted before 9 to get a shot at a blue chipper. Be careful saying no to some of the guys I see listed on this thread.

We are measuring a position against a draft spot. Therefore, what you need to know is, how much the guy produced, and how much he cost to draft at that spot. If all skill guys are drafted in the top ten and produce X, and all lineman are drafted in the top ten and produce X plus, who is more successful?

I saw it last night, and it was a lot of fun. Went with my college age son, and he liked as well. Costner did a nice job, and Jennifer Garner looked great!

No it's not obvious. And, blowing the 9th pick-really!!!

Actually I undertook a rather painstaking effort to create a Draft Value Chart. Whether the guy is a 4 or 6 ,or whatever, he is compared to the spot he was drafted and assigned a different value. The difference between the two is the hit or miss. For example, a guy becomes a 10 value, say Tom Brady. But, as a late sixth rounder he may have a draft spot value of 1. He would then net a 9, well above the threshold set for a hit. Same thing the other way for a miss. Hope this clears things up. It is a too involved process to explain entirely in this format.

POS HITS% NEUTRAL% MISS% H/M RATIO LB 33 47 20 1.7 T 39 34 26 1.5 QB 42 23 35 1.2 DL 31 43 26 1.2 DB 41 41 38 1.1 G/C 31 38 31 1.0 WR 30 36 33 0.9 RB 22 34 44 0.5 TE 11 11 78 0.1 How would I use this data applying to the Bills at 9. NFL.com has the following players rated fairly closely. Ebron TE 6.4 Lewan T 6.2 Evans WR 6.2 Mosley LB 6.5 Clinton - Dix DB 6.1 Assuming the Bills ratings don't differ much. A big assumption I know! I would put Lewan,Mosley ahead of Evan and Dix, with Ebron bringing up the rear. I would be very leary of a TE this high. They have done very poorly by comparison. The thing about a pick this high is you cant afford to blow it. Get a good player who can play for a number of years at a high level. I am not advocating passing on a player ranked much higher. But, within our areas of need, and within reasonable scouting grades, get the most likely to succeed player.

As a follow-up to the topic I created a couple days ago relating to whether offensive lineman are a better bet than skill players at the top of the draft. I created a database of all players drafted between 1978-97. Why this period? Because from 1998 onward still has players who are playing and contributing. Also this marks the beginning of the 16 game schedule and it is a 20 year window. All told there were approximetly 4500 players (20*224 per year). I used PFR AV ratings and created a rating method for the players. And, a method to value each selection. I’ll spare you the gory details, you’ll have to trust me. Anyway, I came up with a system to rate the pick as at HIT or MISS, with most picks being rated as neutral. After all, that is really the question we are after isn’t it? Whether a pick was a hit or a miss at the top of the draft. BTW, this portion if only about the top 15-20 picks. I have much more on my database! One final thing about the ratings in case you don’t believe in them. Players were rated on a 10-8-6-4-3-2-1-0 scale. A typical 10 is Emmitt Smith.. 8 Andre Reed.. 6 Keyshawn Johnson.. 4 Henry Jones..3 Tyrone Wheatley…2 Antonio Edwards…1 Perry Tuttle…0 Gene Bradley (the immortal QB drafted 31? By the Bills and never played a game). A 10 made an average of 5 All-Pro teams, 9 Pro Bowls, was a 14 year starter and played 221 games with an AV of 128. An 8 made 2 AP, 6PB, 12St, 195gms,98AV 6s…. 1AP,3PB,10St, 180 gms, 78 AV 4s….. 1PB,9St, 156 gms, 58 AV 3s…..6 St, 123 gms, 39 AV 2s….3 St, 86 gms, 18 AV 1s…. 29 gms, 3 AV ZEROS…never played DRUMBEAT!!! The Offensive Lineman beat the skill guys pretty handily. Tackles had a hit rate of almost 40%. Overall OL hit on 36% of picks at the top of the draft. Skill guys hit on only 26%. QBs were the exception, with a rate similar to the O-Line-35%. Running Backs (22%), and especially TEs (11%) were the worst. How about the misses? TEs had a miss rate just shy of 80%! QBs and RBs were in the 40-45% range. O-linemen were best at about 25%,lower is better of course. Hope this helps some evidence to the point, and doesn’t just add to the BS. All for now.

Good Call Biscuit!!! I saw Casserly say this and I wondered what his motivation was? Production meetings for TV shows are funny thing. You take this side and Charley you take this side. The bottom line is no one knows who will succeed. It is all a guess. You find a guy that fits and do your best to develop him..then hope for some good fortune. As a follow-up to Casserly: Saying the field is better than Manuel is kind of like taking the field at a golf tournament.

Grabbing a Tackle, Big Receiver(TE?), and a guard are where It seems they are headed in the first three rounds. BPA in these areas when it comes time to make the pick.

This. A QB developing requires some good fortune on the spectrum of outcomes.

You got it! The original car chase movie, and he did almost all the driving.

Steve McQueen in Bullitt.

I I did this pretty quick and dirty. And AV is a rough approximation of value. The system ( not mine), supposedly puts players on an equal playing field. I should create a control group and test that when I have time. I do believe NFL teams believe in this thought process.