GunnerBill

See that is where I get into my difference point. I have Chop just ahead of Worthy on grades but in the same tier. So I'd probably take Worthy. I would not take Franklin at #28. I might also consider an OT there. If 5 receivers have gone the likelihood is there hasn't been a run on tackles. So that could come into play.

So I love Newton and I like Murphy a lot. But they are 3Ts. How do you get the value out of them with Ed playing 70% of the snaps and being your best defender last year?

I could certainly see that. In a weaker class I think he'd be a cert for day 2. He is above the other more popular names in the tier for me the Foster, Goncalves, Fisher types who have been talked about in the same area of the draft. I have a 4th on Roger but I wouldn't hate on any team taking him in the third. Technically good, played in big games, elite athleticism at the position. It is just size really that is the knock. He will fall for teams who are very rigid on their parameters for tackles. Maybe some thing he can slide into guard?

I am not sure we will ever know the full extent of what went on but I don't think 2023 was a great year for Josh Allen's personal life. I do think he looked heavier all year and I suspect he just had ***** going on last spring and summer that affected him.

Latu is my answer too. If he is there then unless one of the top 3 receivers is also there I'd take him and start trying to trade up in round 2 to make sure I get a receiver. He is just a tier of talent above all the receivers except the top 3. You can't pass on that at a premium position. But this Bills regime has been reluctant to take risks on injury guys. So I doubt they'd do it.

I'm doing this as just guys I like in the class and am really high on (probably higher than the consensus in some cases) rather than as fits for the Bills. Some are, some aren't and the days are where I have them graded more than where I think they go in some cases. Round 1 Quinyon Mitchell Johnny Newton Xavier Legette Jordan Morgan Day 2 Braden Fiske Christian Haynes Jaylen Wright Javon Baker Dadrion Taylor-Demerson Day 3 (more to come on these guys when I do my sleepers thread) Elijah Jones Deantre Prince Jalyx Hunt Darius Muasau Roger Rosengarten Cornelius Johnson Tip Reiman

I don't think there is much chance either get to #60. I'm definitely hearing more people I respect talking about Legette as having a small chance of sneaking into the end of round 1 than I did a month ago pre-combine when I basically couldn't find anyone who thought that. I don't think he will, ultimately, I think he will go somewhere between 30 and 50. I think the first 20 picks of round 2 will be a MAJOR run on receivers. We have increasingly seen that pattern. 7 went between 34 and 54 in 2022 and 7 went between 32 and 59 in 2020 (the last two comparatively strong receiver classes). I am not sure the record of 6 in round 1 will be broken. But the record of 13 in the first two rounds? I'd take the over on that for sure.

Easily thanksgiving / black friday. Honestly the last two years I havent liked prime time week 1 it kinda sucks watching everyone else play and waiting. And I don't like the idea of Saturday / Wednesday and Christmas Day. I only get one xmas day in two with my partner and it is this year so it is one day I'd rather not have Bills stress.

It is every other team except Tampa. I would take an edge rusher though if one of the top tier talents in this class fell to us, because that will be a tier above any receiver available and I would never justify reaching down a tier for anything other than a Quarterback. The only way that happens is if Latu falls based on medicals and if that happens I am not sure the Bills would do that.... this regime has been quite risk adverse on medical flags in the early rounds of the draft. The edge pick they will make at #28 if they make one is Chop Robinson. I wouldn't do that. But I can see them really liking him.

Good player but he seems to replicate skillsets we have on the roster. I think he will ultimately do a lot of his damage in the NFL from the slot. He is a bit like Samuel he can do some outside stuff and be moved around the formation but he isn't going to be a game wrecking outside receiver. He is going to be a guy who lines up all over catches the ball and gets some YAC. I don't think you have much diversity in your receiving corps with a 30 year old Diggs plus Samuel, Shakir and McConkey.

In your scenario, that's easy - you pick the edge. Because (without getting too bogged down in the hypothetical grading system) a difference of half a point is probably at least one tier difference on the draft board. There it isn't about whether the drop off is bigger it is just about taking the guy who is clearly the best player at a premium position. The difficult scenario is if it is closer and the other way around.... so let's say your highest graded remaining player is a wide receiver, at 8.9 and the next best is an edge at 8.7 and the drop off at edge is down to your 7.9 example but you have 6 receivers between 8.6 and 8.0 that is where it gets tricky. But Beane also has to weigh up how likely is he to then be able to get any of his 6 other closely graded receivers? Because it is okay in theory saying "the drop off is bigger at edge" but you have to really look at the drop off between the guys there at #28 and what is likely to be there at #60. If you think the likelihood is all six of the receivers in between are gone the next time you get on the clock then the drop off being less is pretty irrelevant. The only scenario in which you take a guy other than receiver is if the guy you have BPA sticking out on the board is higher tier of prospect (not just 0.1 or 0.2 difference) and is at a premium position.

I hate this. I can live with it when it is a weekend and fits the normal cycle, but when Christmas is midweek just leave it alone.

I wasn't the one comparing him to Lewis. I was just correcting a factual inaccuracy.

Exactly the contract range I said he'd be in $8-10m. Good for Tre. The Rams need help at the spot. If he can get healthy he can still be very good.

After 3 consecutive losing seasons. If McDermott has that he is gone. In fact I am not sure he'd get three. Barring a major Allen injury I'm not sure he'd get one.

Do I think it plays a part? Sure. But there is also a good degree of randomness to them.

Easy - they won the turnover battle 3-0

I think it is just a bit of a speech thing McDermott does. He follows it up with "like he has been". I don't think he was intending to suggest at all that Josh hasn't already been the face of the franchise. He just sometimes in his determination to say nothing answers questions about the future by stating things from the present. I have noticed it previously too.

They were 13 up at half. Went 16 up when the defense forced a turnover already in FG range which the offense got the bare minimum out of.

The O collapsed in that game. 24 yards, 18 yards, 22 yards and a turnover, 6 yards, 14 yards. Those were our offensive drives from 13-0 until 16-19. The offense blew it just as much as the defense.

But you don't win playoff games on the road with 16 points, especially not when you turn it over. The entire team was very good first half and bad second half.

I don't think the offense played well enough to win at Houston. It threw up on itself second half of that game, turned the ball over and opened the door for Houston. It did play well enough vs Minnesota.... but the defense had stopped them and the game was done if Mitch and Josh could execute a snap.

I've been looking a lot at what I think team needs are for my mock this week. I see @LEBills has already volunteered but happy to act as a sense check if helpful.

Yep. It is absolutely stock NFL coach speak 101. Belichick used to say it all the time. The joke with Jauron was it was particularly hard for him to win in the NFL. How many of them beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs? Because that is the question.

I do think his pressers this offseason have been defensive. But I think it is likely triggered by the hatchet job from Ty Dunne. Which I think he has a right to be pissed by.