GunnerBill

The late, great, Brian Clough - a soccer coach from the UK in the 70s and 80s who made a small provincial club two time champions of Europe - always wanted his players to get married young because he thought it settled them down. I don't know that I totally buy Cloughie's theory but there is no doubt in my mind that Josh Allen is in a better place mentally now than he was two years ago. I really think the personal life turmoil affected his play in late 2022. I think he is playing the best football of his career and if this relationship is part of it then long may it continue.

Also depends what he thinks of Caleb. Because if you think Caleb is good (and there have been flashes as a rookie) then there is a good chance to win quickly in Chicago. The downside is it is a very tough division. I think the Lions and the Packers are the two best teams in the conference and Minnesota has talent and is well coached.

Probably because Kyle Shanahan lies about injuries more than any coach in football. That said I do think Purdy is going to give it a go.

Does look like Purdy is gonna give it a go but on the flip side: Lenoir, Williams and Bosa all officially out. Unless the weather makes it a lottery gsne the Bills will win.

Again?

Exactly where I am.

Yea, the Eagles are a better matchup against the Lions. Fair play to Fangio he has turned that D around after the first 3 weeks. But I do think the Packers are better Quarterbacked and better coached than the Eagles. They just matchup less well against the Lions. He is definitely building it. He has done enough already this year despite suffering injuries and missing 3 games to back up his breakout year last year. I think if I was picking an NFC Quarterback to start a franchise with tomorrow it is an absolute no brainer I'd pick Jordan Love. Nah that's way too simplistic. Tua has thrown down the field plenty the last two years and it isn't like everything to Smith is short. The Dolphins are struggling to find a way to get their two best players the ball, and while I don't absolve Tua totally of blame, I think it is more on coaching struggling to adjust to the new rules and the way teams are defending them. That is definitely a factor. The two guys they lose up front in the offseason, plus Armstead's ever increasing frailty (his play has actually declined as well) is not helping. Their cap situation is rough too, they are mortgaged to the hilt. Agree with this. I don't think their defense is very good. I have said it repeatedly. I was just making the point that as ever bald stats don't tell the entire tale. In the Dolphins case DVOA was much closer to the truth on their defense than anything else. I don't agree. Winning out and being 10-7 isn't totally off the table. the path is narrow, but there is a path.

I don't have a rooting interest in college football. I root for unpredictability, I root for competition. I root against college football dynasties. I don't think the Alabama domination of the 2010s was good for the sport. I like this unpredictable era.

So I think there are a few things going on with Hill: 1. Tua earlier in his career especially was very susceptible to pressure so teams would blitz him a ton and try and man up on the backend but increasingly now teams are playing more cover 2 shell against Miami - as they do to the Buffalos and Kansas Citys of the world and trying to take the deeper balls away. 2. I do think there are signs that Hill has slowed a little but he is still dynamic enough and Waddle definitely hasn't slowed do the failure to get him involved too suggests it is more than just a decline in Hill's speed that is the issue. 3. The rule change that took away the cheat motion has affected Miami more than any other team. Covering Hill and Waddle with a running start was all but impossible. 4. I think they are just getting a bit overly cute in their offensive design. Everything seems to have a fake or a twist, or a bit of eye candy and I think teams are almost where they got to with the Jared Goff Rams which was "ignore everything just play your assignment as though it was a straight dropback and for the 3 or 4 times a game when they do something creative off one of their motions or fakes we will live with it, they can't do that down to down." To me McDaniel has gotta get back in the lab and look at the route combination concepts they are running wit their two best players. Because having Hill and Waddle then allowing your offense to be dink and dunk with Achane and Smith is like having a Ferrari in the garage but only ever driving your Skoda.

Yea that game is not a gimme. Like I say the path for Miami still exists, but it is narrow.

I put in the gameweek thread but Williams, Bosa and Lenoi have been DNPs all week. I'd be very surprised at this stage if we see any of those three. I don't think we will see Purdy. And yea, Warner has a fractured ankle. He is playing with it.

It is not 'innovation' but I think since the middle of last year when they sort of stumbled across the dime package because of injuries at linebacker the Bills have been a bit more willing to throw different looks out there on 3rd down. I think their passing down defensive packages are a bit more varied. Under Frazier they liked to stay very much in their nickel package. The question is whether that has been successful? See the numbers below which tell you that currently our 3rd down defense numbers are the worst of the McDermott era - and in a year where generally 3rd down conversions are at the lower end of the normal range league wide. However, the injuries have played a definite part in that. Through 5 weeks while we were missing Taron and Bernard for chunks of time we were running at 44% of 3rd downs surrendered, since then, when those guys have returned to the lineup it is down to 37.5% which is much more in keeping with our previous performance. Of course we'd all settle for being slightly worse on 3rd down in the regular season if that variation and unpredictability resulted in better playoff performance. So that will bear watching. Frazier's 3rd down conversion against rankings in his time here: 2022 - 37.5% (7th in the NFL) 2021 - 30.8% (1st in the NFL) 2020 - 39.8% (13th in the NFL) 2019 - 35.8% (7th in the NFL) 2018 - 36.5% (8th in the NFL) 2017 - 38.3% (17th in the NFL) McDermott's 3rd down conversion against ranking: 2023 - 38.6% (19th in the NFL) Babich's 3rd down conversion against ranking: 2024 - 40.8% (21st in the NFL)

49ers injury report yesterday: Williams, Bose and Lenoir all still DNPs. You would think that means trending towards not playing. Purdy still reporting as "limited" but who knows what that means. I still think he is unlikely to go. The one who I do expect to play is Charvarius Ward who has been missing for personal reasons and is now back practicing.

The Bills did not fire Leslie Frazier. I have had it from the horses mouth. He walked away.

Black Friday morning reflections on the late game: - I know Philadelphia are getting a lot of love but I think Green Bay might be the second best team in the conference. They battled through the first half of the season with a nicked up Quarterback but they are going to be a problem in the post season. My only reservation is I don't think they match up great vs the Lions should they meet their division rival in January; - I am an unabashed Jordan Love fan. He is just such an aggressive decision maker and downfield thrower. He makes the odd mistake because he reads everything long to short but while he is the Pack QB they are never going to walk off a field not knowing. In an NFC lacking QB stars, Jordan Love is a QB star; - As for Miami's offense, look I know Achane is a hell of a talented running back but they are at risk of over using him. I felt it at times vs Buffalo and I definitely felt it in that first half last night. Every time you throw to Achane rather than downfield to Waddle or Hill it is kind of a win for the defense. They did get Hill going a bit in the 2nd half but the game was already away from them. When you have two game breaking receivers with elite speed why allow yourself to turn into a dink and dunk running back and tight end offense? It makes no sense; - This game was an advert for DVOA. The last few weeks I have lost count of the number of talking heads lining up to tell us how "Miami's defense has come around." Aaron Schatz of DVOA fame was on Schopp and Bulldog last week and they asked him directly what the numbers said and he said "no, not really they have just played some bad offenses" and would you believe it against a good offense they immediately give up 30, and the Packers were in cruise control 2nd half and could have scored more; - Where does it leave Miami? I think in a "must win out" situation in terms of making the playoffs but even if they don't 9-8 might be enough to make sure everyone stays in a job (most particularly GM Chris Grier). They only face one more team with a winning record - Houston in two weeks - and they themselves are wobbling. The path is narrow but a path remains.

I think he is a good defensive mind. The Jets D has definitely lost something without him. He didn't get it done as a Head Coach. I suspect he now settles into the career DC mode. Bit Jim Schwartz like.

It was not very good in the redzone, we were 30th. But we were 2nd in total yards against, top 5 in pressure rate, top 10 on 3rd down, best in yards per drive against... it was not a good redzone defense and it was put in a lot of bad spots by the useless offense. Overall though the Bills defense in 2018 was pretty good.

I do think you are right that Allen inherited a better defense. Josh's rookie year the D was in year two of the McDermott / Frazier era and they had started to plug their pieces into the scheme. But the ESPN ranking the Bills roster 16th going into 2018 definitely underestimated how bad the pieces on offense were. It was worse than every offensive roster in the drought years IMO (at least going back to 02 from when I can really speak). We had years with worse olines. We had years with worse skill players but the combination of dreadful line and dreadful skill players in 2018 was the worst I can remember. It's telling that three of the starting lineup that year - Ducasse, Bodine and Benjamin - never started another NFL game after 2018. Clay started 10, Shady started 9, Di Marco started 4 and Jordan Mills started 2. That means seven of the Bills starters on offense from the 2018 roster between then combined for 25 starts the rest of their careers after that year. Basically other than Josh and Dion the best players on that offense were Zay Jones and John Miller. Let that sink in.

Back on topic.... Purdy described as limited on the injury report yesterday. Local 9ers reporters saying was in reality "extremely limited" and threw only one pass. I don't think he is going to play.

I don't think Purdy is playing. According to local reporters he threw precisely one pass at practice yesterday. I don't think Bosa makes it either although that is more 50/50. Ward will play, but Lenoir got hurt last week and is out so they are still down a corner.

His ceiling is higher than Goff, sure. The problem is his floor is lower. Goff's median performance is better than Hurts's. As for being "it." What do you mean by "it"? An elite Quarterback? No, he isn't that. I don't think he ever will be. But he is absolutely a franchise Quarterback and a top 10 guy. I don't agree that that isn't "it." Not everyone can have Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. I think since we have had Josh this fanbase has increasingly moved to "well if you don't have an elite guy you have nothing" when looking outside at other Quarterbacks. Man for 17 years we'd have loved someone as good as Jalen Hurts, or Jared Goff for that matter. Top 10 Quarterbacks are still worth having, even if they are not among the top 2-3 guys in the league.

I mostly agree with you in this thread but just want to clarify the 2017 vs 2018 Bills point here. The 2017 Bills, while not world beaters by any means were a competitive roster. They'd gone 8-8 and 7-9 the previous two years with some of the worst coaching in the entire league. They lost some pieces in 2017, no doubt, Gilmore (their best player at the time) walked, Robert Woods walked, Sammy was traded and then they traded Dareus in season. But they still had LeSean McCoy, they still had a decent offensive line with Cordy Glenn, Incognito and Eric Wood, they had added Tre White who was exceptional as a rookie and Poyer and Hyde to their secondary, and they still had Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes on the Dline. It was an 7 to 9 win roster, they won the upper end of that range with much improved coaching, a favourable schedule and the bit of luck those sorts of teams need (or needed especially in the 6 team playoff era) to sneak in. The 2018 team team that Allen was drafted onto still had those defensive pieces plus Matt Milano who cracked the lineup late his rookie year but really emerged year 2 and Tremaine Edmunds and Taron Johnson added through the draft (and the 2018 Bills were actually 2nd in the NFL in total defense). BUT, critically, they lost 3 key starters on the offensive line. Glenn was traded as part of the deal to get in position to draft Josh, Eric Wood unexpectedly retired and Richie Incognito had a mental health flare up and demanded his release as a result. That blunted the effectiveness of a 30 year old McCoy and with no running game to speak of the lack of viable wideouts - a problem in 2017, became a crisis. Expecting a rookie Quarterback to play well behind that offensive line and with those weapons was foolish in the extreme. And it really isn't disputable. Brandon Beane himself has said he did a "horrible job" on offense in 2018 and I think he got slightly lucky that they didn't do more lasting long term damage to Josh as a result (beyond a few games missed with injury). If that was a QB who had come from a college superpower it would have IMO. They were fortunate Josh was used to everything around him sucking from his final year at Wyoming and he managed to survive it and grow from there.

Tom Peliserro on Eisen yesterday said he'd be surprised if Johnson interviews for more than 1 or 2 jobs this round. He isn't going to take 3 or 4 interviews like years past where he has interviewed for jobs he isn't sure he wanted then ended up withdrawing, sometimes when teams were basically about to hire him - see Washington last year. I think that is smart. Continually leaving teams at the altar is not good for your reputation. Ben Johnson doesn't need his "name out there" at this point. He is the hottest thing in a headset.... he should only interview for jobs he is convinced he would take if offered. I somewhat doubt that includes the New York Jets. On Joe Douglas's recommendation though. Douglas very much led that search and Saleh was his guy.

It's a good piece, and the overall conclusion that the trick to being great against man might just be having true high end man beating receivers is right in my view. However, on the opposite end you have to have really talented DBs to be successful playing a lot of man coverage. The Jags for instance tried to play man vs Buffalo in week 3 when the Bills were very much still bedding in Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper was still running downfield while Deshaun Watson got sacked.... they were shredded. Why? Because Tyson Campbell was out and the rest of their DBs just aren't good enough to play man coverage even against a mediocre set of Bills receivers. Similarly over the years the Dolphins have tried to play a ton of man against the Bills, and Josh has been excellent against them. Even since they have had Jalen Ramsey, Allen has just looked at the defense, worked out man or zone and if it's man don't throw at Ramsey, throw somewhere else and the others won't be able to carry their assignments. The Chiefs, missing their #1 outside corner Jaylen Watson, took a different tack in week 11 and as a team that normally tries to play the Bills in a lot of man coverage they switched to primarily playing zone. That was likely in part to protect Nazeeh Johnson who was starting opposite Trent McDuffie outside and Chamarri Conner who has replaced McDuffie in the slot since Watson's injury. It didn't work. The Bills targeted Johnson 12 times and had 9 completions for 103 yards and Conner 6 times for 5 completions and 55 yards. But if you are Steve Spagnuolo you probably say to yourself "if they got cooked that bad in zone maybe it was a good thing I didn't play more man." So while there is definitely a question for the Bills as we look toward the post season in respect of "can their receivers win consistently enough vs man coverage?" (and I think that especially applies outside the numbers) there is a question for the teams we are going to face as well as to whether they trust their DBs enough to play us in man, and if they do, does it work?

I mean the Eagles got there beating the 49ers 4th string QB. The only one of the five teams I think you can say have proven their pedigree is the Chiefs... but they, arguably, look the most vulnerable of the five right here today, despite the record. Which isn't me writing them off btw. I still think it is going to takena very good team to knock your guys off in January.