GunnerBill

Okay. I'm off to google "Rome Odunze's package." Will report back.

Yea I'm not down on Shakir at all. I had a late 3rd on him coming out and was happy with the pick. I think he is a good complimentary receiver and that is great value from a 5th rounder. Even if we just got two more seasons like 2023 in terms of production and then he walked in FA that would be a decent return, but I think the ceiling can be higher than that... without him being quite in 1,000 yard guy territory.

How does he get off press or deal with physical cover corners though? He has the speed you need to go deep, he doesn't have any of the other attributes you need.

Yep. If he had cleared his man coverage a split second sooner the Bills have a touchdown at the end against KC. But he got caught up just long enough by the DB in coverage and Josh had to hold the ball one tick too long and Jones got there. I'm not sure I totally agree on the difference between he and Beas. Beas wasn't great against man either. He was an elite zone beater not because of his suddenness but because of his natural feel for the soft spots in zone defences. In was instinctive. I think ultimately it is why he was an UDFA yet went on to have some success, because you can't measure the thing Cole Beasley had that was special. It was feel. I think Shakir is more sudden but he doesn't run routes as well and doesn't have the same feel. Even last season there were multiple times when he ran into coverage where you really want your slot receiver to just stop and sit. That was a major problem his rookie year and it is why despite being on the field on a third of the Bills offensive snaps in 2022 he totalled just 20 targets. He did improve his route running a bit in year 2, and he is definitely a threat with the ball in his hands when actually the player he reminds me of isn't a receiver at all - it is Austin Ekeler - with that low centre of gravity and ability to twist and turn out of tackles and bounce out of contact. Could he be a 1,000 yard receiver? I'm not sure for two reasons: 1. I still think the Bills will want to have a lot of 12 personnel packages where Kincaid essentially becomes their slot receiver. I don't think they are going to have that as the single base formation or anything like that, but they are going to want to use it some. In those packages Shakir either comes off the field or splits wide where he just isn't close to as effective for obvious reasons - alligator arms, route running, size. 2. I think Josh Allen is a downfield thrower. I don't know that he is every going to be Tom Brady who is happy to move down the field with running backs, tight ends and slot receivers. Partly because he doesn't throw those little option routes, screens and wheels with enough precision for YAC and partly because I think he can lose patience when you try and force him into that kind of game plan. So I'm not sure a shifty slot receiver like Shakir will get the level of targets he needs for a 1,000 yard season. He could probably do it once somewhere down the line.... Beas nearly did it for us in 2020. Lance Moore who was mentioned as another comparison somewhere in this thread did it once with Drew as well. But those true pure slot guys are rarely 1,000 yard guys on a regular basis. Edelman did it three times in six years with Brady but again I just don't think the Bills offense can or should be a replica of that New England offense. My realistic projection for Shakir in 2024 is something like, 80 targets, 60 catches, 820 yards, 4 TDs.

I'd definitely be willing to throw a 6th or 7th at Marshall.

I'd be shocked if either McConkey or Legette is off the board before #28. The Bills feel like the start of the range for both players IMO. I think Ladd then has some other possible fits late in the first - San Fran (if Aiyuk is to be moved) and KC.... possibly even Baltimore (if they have finally decided Bateman isn't it). I think if the Bills don't take Legette he is a 2nd rounder.... but there are half a dozen potential landing spots early in the 2nd - Carolina, Washington, New England, Chargers (if they got OL in round 1), even possibly Tennessee. I think Ladd is a possible fit in some of those spots too. Then #44 to #51 is where I expect a mammoth receiver run: #44 Raiders - have Adams at 31 on a huge deal with an out after this year, Meyers and then literally nothing else. #45 Saints - need a running mate for Olave (think they'd want a bigger guy so Legette, Coleman etc are in play) #46 Colts - less likely as they have a decent top 3 - Pittman, Pierce, Downs.... but there is still room to upgrade #47 Giants - might take one early but what if they go QB in round 1? They'd then be almost certain to go WR their next pick #48 Jax - again might go that route round 1 but if they don't I'd expect them to here #49 Bengals - lost Boyd and Higgins uncertainty #50 Eagles - not an urgent need by AJ Brown drama this year feels a lot like the Diggs drama last year and 2024 might be a last ride #51 Steelers - traded Johnson away means it is slim pickings opposite Pickens. In those eight picks I think you could easily see four or five receivers go off the board. It is why I think early 40s is the last possible target zone for the Bills if their plan really is to trade back from #28, or trade up to double dip.

I don't think he ever tried in Buffalo. He was half assing it the moment he arrived. To be honest I always thought he wae overrated riding the coat tails of some talented defenses in Baltimore and New York. I hated the hire. When I speak to my ex we still laugh about my reaction the day he was hired. I was close to jump off a bridge territory. But we didn't even get the best Rex. We got the pay cheque collector.

The 2015 roster was by a distance the best Bills roster of the drought. And played a soft as ***** schedule. And Rex went 8-8 after being 6-8 and out of the running with two weeks to go. He ***** sucked.

I don't think we'd have had winning seasons in 2017 or 2019 and he'd have been fired. There is zero chance he'd still be Head Coach. He was ***** terrible. And mine. And by a long, long, long, long way. The guy is a total fraud.

Totally insane. He is toast.

He's totally washed.

I had a first on Orlando Brown and never waivered because of the underwear olympics. Dude could play on tape and that is what mattered.

Disagree. I think it is one of the better positions early in the draft. Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu, Morgan, Fuaga, Mims, Guyton and Latham all have a legit chance to be round 1 picks.

Have they not done Oliver already? Thought they had. But yes that remains an option.

Nah he is $14.1m this year. We could extend him and lower the hit.... but you can only do that once he is on your roster.... and to get him on your roster you need the space to take on the contract in the first place.

They have a bit more room to kick Allen's deal I think. But they have pulled almost every other lever they had to pull.

He is on a 5th year option. It pays $14m this year. We have around $3m in space right now. We get another $10m due in June when Tre comes off the books but we need that money to pay our draft picks.

They can't trade for him. Because they can't absorb the 5th year option cap hit and they can't restructure him before he is on the roster. And they can't get him on the roster and stay under the cap.

While Cosell is right I think a lot of that is the proliferation of the Shanahan style offense which is a very horizontal offense. I don't love Josh Allen's horizontal game. The Bills have to be a bit more vertical because it is what Josh does best. He throws the 15-25 yard downfield strike better than anyone else in the league. That necessitates at least one receiver who is a true outside option who can win vertically and get off press.

That isn't the contract you are trading for though. That is the point. You can't adjust the contract before he is on your team and he can't be on your team unless you can absorb the contract without being over the cap. The ONLY way of doing it is getting him to sign a new deal with the 49ers, and trusting them and the Bills that they will still trade him and the Bills will immediately re-do that deal again. And that kind of thing doesn't happen.

It can't go down by tomorrow. Aiyuk is on a 5th year option at $14m. That means to trade for him we'd need to be able to absorb that contract (even if we then immediately extend him and lower the hit) and we can't. We can't extend him until he is on our roster. He can't be on our roster unless we can absorb the current contract. Could he do a 1 year extension with SF, to lower his hit to nothing this year on the basis he has a gentleman's agreement that the Bills would immediately re-do that deal again? Possible, but unlikely.

I mean the chances of any team winning a superbowl before the season starts are vanishingly small.... the favourites tend to work out at less that 20% chance by most predictive models.... that the loss of any player other than a top 5 QB is bound to be less than a percentage point of difference, right?

See I'm not sure it will be a buyers market, because apart from a QB (Penix) I, like you, think there is a tier of talent from about 25 to about 40 that doesn't have a drop off. So sliding back a few spots will be attractive to teams in that range.... but it won't be that attractive to teams in that early 2nd range.

I got told at the end of the 2022 season that the Diggs - Allen relationship had broken down and they were barely on speaking terms. I don't think that was really the reason for the downturn in performance in late 2023 though, because the previous 12 months they had managed to co-exist successfully on the field. I think it is a combination of it all. The fact he was no longer best buds with his QB and had the explosive temper moments were sufferable while he was producing at the level he was up to halfway through 2023. Once that production disappeared it was no longer worth the wedge.

Only two for me: 1. Fred Jackson - the player he was for us, plus the way it was handled. The time was right, but it still stung because it was bungled. 2. Jason Peters - Ralf. Was. Cheap.