GunnerBill

Unless some major off field scandal hits between now and draft day there is ZERO chance Carter makes it to 10. But if he does, sure I think he is a guy you make a big move for.

Yea I was a "Gilmore is elite" guy here as well. That was not a popular opinion. Agree with you as well that his ceiling as a WR is a high end #2 / low end #1 big play threat.

I think Porter has some ceiling. I know he is 24 and was a 6th year senior but he has played one year of corner, is a bit of a freak athletically and has the traits you look for. The issue with him is more if he is your only corner pick for a team that needs a starter..... you are going to take some lumps early. The other two I do think are safe floor guys not dudes though. Collins is 23, and is going to be a starting 1tech in the NFL. He might legit be a two contract guy. That is a need for this team so I sort of get it. But he isn't a star. Ezeiruaku is another starter not star to me. I can actually see the Bills loving him. He is their type. But I think his ceiling in the NFL is solid DE2. I think, especially on a team like the Bills where the issue is not enough elite talent, you should be shooting higher with your first round pick. If Thomas is 4.55 as a guy whose calling card is supposed to be his man coverage ability he might even slide out of round 2. Beane drafts his biggest need with his first pick. Always. His biggest need is a corner.

Meh. I don't like Ezeiruaku at 30. I'm probably lower than the consensus on him. But what I see is a guy who is very technically sound but is at his limit. He is physically what he is and there isn't much technical tidy up to do. So I kind of feel he is tapped out. Safe floor. Don't see a ceiling that is more than a pretty reliable 3 down edge who you will be content with as your #2 but when his rookie deal is up you'll let walk. And another team will sign him to a 3 year medium sized deal and then the pattern will repeat. He is my EDGE9. If the Bills pick him in round 2, absolutely no issue. But he won't get there. And I do not think he has the potential ceiling to be a first round pick.

We definitely have high end talent issues. It is beyond debate IMO. The Bills consistently have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL with among the least obvious weaknesses and holes. But they have, certainly among contenders, the least bona fide difference makers too.

This is word for word how I see him (except I didn't watch him at 17). He is a corner and a very, very good one. If you want to have a package for him on offense, sure. But he should limit that and focus on being a corner. If he does he will be elite. The Peppers comparison is ridiculous.

And I'm still not sure the Bills would take Green. 32 inch arms on an edge. That's probably an off the board for Brandon Beane.

@BillsFanForever19 - Ray Cook? I though James's brother was name Dalvin?

McGovern is a very good player.

So hard to say. As @gonzo1105 says.... he could go top 15.... he could also fall to the Bills. His range is wide.

It is the idea that the screw up in FA is a justification for anything in the draft.

What about Pearce and Green? You excluding because you think they will go earlier than you'd be willing to move up to? Or because you think rumoured off field stuff means they are probably not realistic for the Bills?

I broadly agree, although I slightly disagree on Barron I think he is a lock for the top 15. But I'd put a ton of guys in that category of anywhere between #9 with the Saints and #32 with the Eagles..... Mykeil Williams, Shermar Stewart, James Pearce, the three DTs after Graham, Jihad Campbell, both the safeties, the top four receivers, both tight ends.... The guys I think are top 10 locks are: Cam Ward Abdul Carter Travis Hunter Mason Graham Then guys who could go top 10 but are top 15 locks: Ashton Jeanty Will Campbell Jahdae Barron Armand Membou I then think Mike Green and Jalon Walker will definitely go top 20. After that guys have very wide ranges IMO. What I'm trying to get from @nosejob and @Vickveto, not in an antagonistic way, but in the spirit of genuine discussion is ignore that first gaggle of guys who are out of reach... who might fall into the realistic trade up window who they would consider going up for?

There has been a significant resource shift the past three years. They have spent the money that used be spent on the secondary on the offensive line. And they have invested premium picks on Kincaid, Coleman, Torrence, Cook and Amari Cooper (via trade) as well as continuing to invest in mid tier FA contracts - most recently Samuel and Palmer. Add that to Josh's cap hits increasing.... and you get to his position. The big issue thus far is that the draft picks are still to fully deliver on investment.

We are not getting to the Graham and Carter range. We just aren't. So let's leave that to the side for now.... who are the guys that "fill" this draft and match our needs that you would want the Bills to consider trading up for in say the teens or the early 20s? Because that is a realistic conversation to have.

I don't think we are keeping 10 rookie either. I just don't think there is a realistic missing piece trade up in round one that makes sense, is affordable and will justify that cost. It isn't that I am anti-trade ups per se. I wanted the Bills to trade up for Brian Thomas Jnr last year. I wanted them to trade up for Jordan Addison the year before. I just don't see that guy who can be "the missing piece" in this class beyond the top 4 or 5 guys who are just not in realistic range. My strategy would be to pick the best player available at a premium position at #30, then use our 6 picks from the late 4th onwards to move around the board in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds to match value with need.

It comes back to @gonzo1105's point. I just don't think there is big separation between the top 2 or 3 corners and the next group.

And with less talent around him he looked significantly more ordinary this past season. I'm a bit of a Will Johnson sceptic though. I do have a 1st round grade on him but a low one. I'm lower than the consensus on him for sure. I just don't think his 2024 tape is very good.

Jesus who tried to argue that? Our safety play was easily 32nd in the NFL in 2024.

Yep. I like Barron quite a bit more than I like Johnson but he isn't what the Bills look for anyway and I don't think either of them are in that "can't miss, swing for the fences" trade up territory.

That is where you strike into a problem. I think late second is likely to be a bit of a wasteland at corner. In terms of corners with 1st or 2nd type grades I have: 1st round: Hunter (if you think he is a CB); Barron; Johnson 1st/2nd: Revel - MAJOR injury red flag 2nd: Hariston; Morrison - MAJOR injury red flag; Amos; Thomas 2nd/3rd: Porter And there are so many corner needy teams I am just not sure any of those 9 get to the Bills at the bottom of the second unless the medicals on Revel or Morrison are so bad that they fall - and if that is the case the Bills won't pick them anyway. After that my next tier is something like Dorian Strong, Cobee Bryant and Zy Alexander.... but I feel like 2nd round is a reach for any of those guys and there almost certainly will be better, more talented, players on the board at other spots. If their plan is to take defensive line at #30 and wait on corner until round 2.... I think they will have to be willing to move UP in the second. Personally, no. I think his Ole Miss tape is a lot better and more consistent than his A&M tape and I just think there is something weird about Texas A&M Dline coaching. they take very talented guys and make them look kind of average. I think Nic Scourton is another example. You only see flashes on the A&M tape then you put his Purdue film on and it's like "wow". I understand there may be off-field / personality concerns with Nolen and that might push him down to the end of round 1 or even into the top of day 2. But without the information to take a view on that I have him as a first round grade.

Packaging their first 3 picks gets you to #12 by the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart and to #10 by the revised Rich Hill chart. Weaker draft so might take slightly less.... they could possibly get just inside that top 10.... 8 or 9 maybe. I don't think they have a chance to get higher than that for two reasons: 1. value and 2. the number of blue chip prospects in this draft is max 4 or 5. When you factor two teams taking QBs (who are not among them) that means #6 or #7 you might get a blue chipper. I just think teams will be reluctant to move down much further than that because they are then dropping a tier in terms of prospects.

I have Grant below Graham, Nolen and Harmon. He is DT4 for me. But agree if you want a high end 1T he is the best pure 1T in the class. I think Harmon can play both, Graham and Nolen are 3Ts only.

Yep, and it is why I hate any rationale anywhere that links the Bills picks early in this draft to the fact he has signed two suspended guys. You don't get to use your own screw ups as a rationale for the next move you make.

They don't have a load of ammo. Five of those 10 picks are late 5th or 6th rounders. Those are next to hopeless for moving up in round 1.