GunnerBill

I don't just say it because I want Thomas to fall but if the Benglas go WR over OT again then they are even dumber than I thought.

Carolina and Washington for OTs is the other possibility. Because there is that run behind us - Baltimore, San Fran, KC who are all in the OT market. Really depends how many have gone and which ones are left.

Yea it'd likely be #28 for #33 and #101 (a small but pretty normal overpay) and if needed to get it over the line the Bills would throw in maybe #204 or something. Then from there the Bills could get up into the range of our original 3rd (i.e. bottom of the round) by using #101 and their first of three 5ths.... #144. Not saying that trade will happen but if it does that is the value and the way Beane could manufacture a 3rd rounder.

All 5? Six QBs have gone.

This draft has gone similar to version 1 in the sense of what is left for the Bills. I think what this exercise has shown is that there is a better than average chance that receiver wise everyone but the top 3 and Thomas is available. The first vote was a Mitchell v Legette run off and I expect this to be the same. My BPA by my board however is Nate Wiggins.

I'm going to say while the Bills are on the clock as well that the Detroit Lions would listen to offers for pick #29. I don't want to hold things up though so unless I have some interest during the course of the poll for the Bills pick I'll move pretty quickly to make my selection once the Bills pick is in. If anyone is interested drop me a DM.

My comp for Keon is a slightly better Gabe Davis. That is who I see. And if you think back to his rookie year when Gabe played some big slot as well as some boundary receiver you saw some of the ways you can move Coleman around and use the bigger body. I think Keon does have better hands than Gabe and I think he give you more YAC potential with the ball in his hands. But in terms of his limitations as a separator and a route runner and the inconsistency you see in contested catch scenarios on his tape.... it is very Gabe to me. I had a 3rd on Gabe back in 2020, I have a higher grade on Keon (a late 2nd) - I do think he'd be an upgrade on Gabe - but I don't think he has anything like #1 receiver potential. He is a solid #2 as his ceiling IMO. That isn't worth a first round pick. I've mentioned it before and I mocked it in my v1.0 two rounder but I really like the fit with the Saints where I think his skillset is the perfect compliment for Chris Olave.

He is a strange human. I have never warmed to him as a personality. I'm sure all those top QBs have an element of douchiness to them but I always found Rodgers the most dislikeable.

I'd consider Morgan and Mims. I like them both a lot for very different reasons. I haven't got my board in front of me right now but Fuaga and Fautanu are like 24 and 26 on the big board so could be in play from a pure value perspective. It would depend what the rest of the board looks like. I have discussed this before but while it might be popular to say "but the Bills don't need a tackle!" right now - Brown is a FA after 2024 and Dion turns 30 on day 1 of the draft. I know they have extended Dawkins but if he plays the full 4 years of that deal with the Bills my strong belief is they won't all be at left tackle. I think he could well end up inside (we have been through the reasons for that many times but primarily he has always had to really fight his weight to remain quick footed enough to be effective at tackle and as that gets harder you get away with more at guard). The question for the Bills on my tier 3 guys would be "do they think they can play left tackle?" If the answer is "no" then they should not take them. If the answer is "yes but they can start at guard in 2024 then we will see what happens with Dion and Spencer" then I can see the logic.

Yea the Chiefs trading up for a tackle is one of the most likely moves in the draft IMO. They need to be ahead of Baltimore and San Francisco who are both potential tackle spots. The Bills won't trade with them in case it is a receiver. I think Green Bay at #25 are a potential partner but not if DeJean is there as he was here. Tampa are possible at #26, Arizona at #27 or Detroit at #29. I would think you try and get as high in that list as you can for fear of getting beaten to the trade up punch by the other two. Should be said though that in this mock the OTs haven't flown as I think they will on draft night and Fautanu Latham, Mims and Guyton were all still there. But even in that scenario Mims's stratospheric ceiling makes him a worthy trade up target. The way I see this tackle class is: Tier 1 is Joe Alt who is the best all around left tackle ready to start and be great day 1 and Olu Fashanu is the best pass protection technician in the class. Tier 2 for me is then Jordan Morgan who has the highest floor (aside from Alt) and Amarius Mims who has the highest ceiling. Tier 3 is Fuaga and Fautanu who I think are both 10 year NFL starters that you can try at left tackle but ultimately may be at their best elsewhere on the line. Tier 4 is Guyton who I think is a right tackle early but who might be capable of developing into a left tackle in the NFL. Tier 5 maybe somewhat controversially is Latham who I think is a right tackle only. And he could well be a good one. But of all those guys he is the one I feel has the least chance to be an NFL left tackle and hence I have him lower than the consensus.

Whereas I can see it with Penix. I wouldn't draft JJ McCarthy or Bo Nix in the first round even if I was told zero QBs would declare for the next 3 drafts and this was my only shot.

I like Tom's answer. Josh Allen but he has to get past the Chiefs and that is hard because of Patrick Mahomes. That is the right answer.

I can absolutely see the Chiefs coming up here if Mims is still on the board. I still think he will be a Steeler or a Cowboy though.

Yep. If he is there they take him. I don't think he gets past the Eagles though.

I would on the YAC. I wouldn't on the hands.

I have 5 or 6 folks in the draft community I am on DM'ing terms with.

Interesting. I have heard New England really likes JJ and that he very well could be the guy at #3.

Because lots of people working in scouting departments and it is an incestuous business. And teams also play the smokescreen bluff and double bluff game with the media.

I've had a quick look at who were my top guys available to the Bills at their first pick of the draft since I've been doing it (based on where they actually picked, of course some years they could have considered trade ups) and I did bang the table for a few of these guys at the time.... Evans, Higgins and Marshall in particular. 2021 - Terrace Marshall (was my WR4 top 3 had gone before the Bills picked) 2020 - Tee Higgins (was my WR4 top 3 had gone before the Bills picked) 2019 - AJ Brown (was my WR1) 2018 - Calvin Ridley (was my WR1 but the guy I liked for the Bills was my WR2 Courtland Sutton) 2017 - Chris Godwin (was my WR4 but the guy I liked for the Bills was my WR5.... a fella called Zay Jones) 2016 - Laquon Treadwell (was my WR1 but that was a bad receiver class I didn't have any first round grades at the position and was anti-selecting one) 2015 - Tyler Lockett (was my WR6 top 5 had gone before the Bills picked because we had no first round pick) 2014 - Mike Evans (was my WR1 and the guy I banged the table for)

The bolded is exactly right. It would be really bad form to agree a pay cut with a player to help your roster construction and then trade him. I suspect Beane had guaranteed Dawson he is here for at least 2024. The reputational damage you do with agents of making a move like that overrides any trade value you might elicit IMO.

Awful idea

I think he can play as a move receiver. He can play on the boundary 75% of his time but you are not running a ton of down the field stuff with him. I see him as more Deebo Samuel in usage than Stefon Diggs. He lines up wide about 3/4s of the time but then runs mainly in cutting or horizontal stuff. I don't think he can play as a vertical receiver to anywhere near the extent Diggs did or has in his NFL career. Stef was kind of a move/vertical hybrid. CeeDee Lamb is that too. Antonio Brown at his peak was as well. But those guys are rare.

Totally agree with that. Darnold, Minchew and Stidham are currently pencilled in starters! EDIT: Basically we haven't backfilled that Fitzpatrick, Keenum, Tyrod, Foles, Brian Hoyer type tier from 5 or 6 years ago. There is Brissett and possibly I suppose Minshew but there are not a ton of other proven capable bridge Quarterbacks

Yea. There is an AJ McCarron to him. I have him 6th of 6 among the top QB options. Arizona is definitely trying to create a market. I think Denver would love to move up, but have no ammunition. Minnesota is desperate. The Giants brass if they have another bad year with Jones might be out that creates an urgency... who knows that the Raiders plan is? I think the Cards are in a position to really ramp it up. And IF (as I have heard is possible McCarthy goes #3) and Daniels or Maye are at #4 then what I was told is teams you don't think are in the QB market would be in the QB market. Jets and Seahawks spring to mind. Possibly Saints?

Sure. If we want to move up from like #144 to #130.... early 5th to late 4th.... that equates to late 6th round value. You could offer Elam for that.