GunnerBill

So there is really a top 4 for me that are guys who would be top 15 players in any draft: 1. Travis Hunter; 2. Abdul Carter; 3. Mason Graham; 4. Ashton Jeanty. Hunter and Carter are top 10 grades, Graham and Jeanty are top 15 (i.e. top half of round 1 grades). I then have 4 mid-firsts: 5. Jahdae Barron; 6. Kelvin Banks Jnr; 7. Malaki Starks; 8. Tet McMillan. The rest of my firsts are all late 1st rounders. I have 14 or 15 total. There is one I have been back and forth on and need to find some more film.

He is my #5 overall player.

Any ranking that has Barron at #35 needs throwing away......

The issue with the "draft a running back" thinking is unless the trade Cook - which does not sound like it is their plan - there is no room for one on the 2025 roster. Cook, Davis and Johnson are all making it. They are not carrying those 3, Gilliam and a fourth out and out running back. I suspect they will just promote Davis next year to be the starter and draft one in next year's draft to be the 1-2 punch.

There is significantly more variation between different pass plays and versions of the Quarterback sneak. The gaps that the Quarterback is looking for to make the line to gain are the same gaps and KC had blocked them up. I see no reason why they wouldn't have stopped a conventional sneak.

Zabel is a guard at the NFL level I would think, possibly even a center. And the Bills do, beyond this season, have possible question marks about the interior offensive line with both McGovern and Edwards going into their contract years. So as a non-Bills expert looking in I don't think giving them a long term interior offensive linemen is necessarily a total fail. However, those of us who know how this regime operates know that despite some years where their oline was a significant problem they have never drafted an offensive lineman in round one. Fair, I think, to assume they'd only be willing to break that for a left tackle. Which is not a need and which Zabel wouldn't necessarily fill even if it were. Secondly, his arms are below the Bills minimum threshold at 32 inches. Of the nine offensive linemen that we all expect to make the Bills roster in 2025 only SVPG has below 33 inch arms. And he spent his entire rookie year as their third string center. Whether it is edge rusher, corner, or offensive line.... we know the Bills care about arm length. Can't ever imagine them drafting a first round offensive lineman who doesn't meet that physical profile.

With the 10th pick of the 2025 TSW Mock Draft version 1.0, the Chicago Bears select: Ashton Jeanty, Running Back, Boise State If the board falls as it did here I honestly think the Bears pick comes down to Will Campbell or Ashton Jeanty. The thing that doesn't get discussed enough about offensive mastermind Ben Johnson is how similar he is to Greg Roman, in the sense that I think the real creativity in his offense is in the run game moreso than the passing game. So you better give him a high end talent at the running back position to help execute that. I doubt he believes that is D'Andre Swift who he was happy to see traded away while he was the OC in Detroit. And in a weak upper end of the first round this year it guarantees the Bears end up with one of the few, genuine, upper first round graded talents. It eventually comes down to Jeanty is just a better football player than Campbell. The San Francisco 49ers and @H2o are now on the clock.

I thought implicit in my answer was the Chiefs stopped one kind of QB sneak, there is no reason to expect they wouldn't have stopped another.

We'd have still run sneaks. They aren't making sneaks illegal. Just the idea of the tush push.

I have been an ardent defender of Frazier because most of the virtriol that comes his way is simply ill informed. On the play in the "structured" part of the play the Bills were in the right positons. When the play broke down the players panicked.

I can wait two more years. But if we go 10-7 and 9-8 the two years after winning our first Lombardi I guarantee all those "win a Superbowl and McDermott and Beane can stay for life" folks would be singing a very different song 😆

Commanders still free too unless you are in process of updating.

Almost. A zero is actually lining up right on the nose, over the center. That is more of a 3-4 alignment thing. The 1T plays in the A gap between centre and guard, primarily to the weakside of the formation (i.e. side where the tight end isn't) and then your 3T plays in the B gap between the guard and the tackle, primarily to the strong side of the formation. But yea, a good 1T can generally absorb a double team from the C and the G and still occupy that gap forcing a back to bounce into the B gap where hopefully you have your linebackers attacking the play.

I don't think Harmon is strictly a 3T. My guess is he ends up playing more 1T than 3T in his NFL career.

Bears Seahawks Texans

The line to gain is the 37. At the point Watson actually plants in the pocket before the pressure forces him to scramble out left (i.e. the point when the called pass should take place) the Bills have 4 rushers, 5 other defenders in the intermediate zone ahead of the sticks and only 2 at or behind the sticks. What happens is Watson breaks contain out to the left and the Bills defenders panic and overplay the deep ball which means by the time Johnson catches it at the 29 the Bills only have 1 player still in that intermediate zone and he is out of the play right on the sidleine. They have all panicked and bailed out. And even then Edmunds gets back to initiate contact 3 yards short of the sticks and Johnson carries him for 3 yards. That isn't on coaching. That is a pure execution failure.

I'm coming if they do

Honestly, I might be one of the few people who couldn't care less about whether they ban the tush push. It's just a variant of the Quarterback sneak. Do I think if they change the rules and teams have to go old school QB sneak success rates will plummet? No. They might go down a bit, but not to an extent that radically alters the game.

It only looks easy to get out because the bonus hasn't triggered. Once it has it is somewhat more difficult to get out.

No, I disagree on how good he is (or was at least pre injury) I don't disagree on the fit for us right now. I said in my first post in the thread I like the player, like him quite a bit, but regrettably given the full circumstances at this stage I'd pass.

What was he supposed to do? Run down and make the tackle? He had the right D called. His players failed to execute.

I sort of agree and at the same time disagree. Where I think you are right is Josh made more plays last year within the structure of the offense than any year since 2020. And the run game was really reliable all year whereas in 2023 it was spotty. Where I have a slight reservation though is that a lot of our bigger plays, our explosives, did come from Josh creating. And that is my worry. It's fine nickel and diming your way down the field but that is a hard way to live drive in and drive out and when Brady called shot plays within the strucutre of the offense they were rarely there because our guys couldn't get open down the field. The explosives that worked were largely scramble drill situations.

I would be very surprised.

Nor me. The below is from my Day 2 Debrief thread from last year's draft: "In round three the Bills snagged DeWayne Carter, the defensive tackle from Duke. I thought this was something of a reach. He was ranked #137 on my board with a late 4th round grade and the Bills took him at #95. I am not surprised they valued him higher though. He is one of those 5 year guys, slightly older prospect but a good RAS score and high character guy. And the Bills needed to get some long term options into this room. Aside from Ed Oliver all their other defensive tackles are older guys or 1 year rentals. The reason I was a bit lower on him is I think he actually regressed in 2023. Some of that might be on the way Duke used him, they were struggling to outside pressure and tried to use him off the edge in some package but he doesn't really have the body for that or the first step explosion you need. For all his athleticism he is a hustle player rather than a guy who uses that athleticism to win and while his tape was definitely better in 2022 when he was used more conventionally as a 3T the majority of snaps I see his ceiling as a rotational 3 tech who plays behind Ed Oliver. Carter is in theory big enough to play some 1T snaps but I don't like his technique against the run and I think his anchor would need to improve. To me this was something of a need pick. Think everyone knew the Bills were in for a defensive tackle at some point and the run early in the day had left the ice a little thin there and Buffalo simply thought waiting to round 4 and the board might be empty at that spot."

Did they already negotiate reductions? Or does he mean like clauses about PEDs in their deals that will now trigger?