GunnerBill

For the Bills, on defense, not so much. 2024: 32 (3rd in the NFL) 2023: 30 (3rd in the NFL) 2022: 27 (4th in the NFL - despite playing one game fewer) 2021: 30 (3rd in the NFL) - - - - years below are 16 game seasons - - - - 2020: 26 (3rd in NFL) 2019: 23 (10th in the NFL) 2018: 27 (8th in the NFL) 2017: 25 (9th in the NFL) They have NEVER been outside the top 10 in takeaways under Sean McDermott. That is staggering consistency and says something about how well coached they are on that side of the ball. What was unusual about last season - and is unlikely to be repeated IMO - was their record low in giveaways. They have generally been around middle of the pack in terms of giveaways - averaging 20ish turnovers per year. Then last year suddenly they had a record low with 8 and when you couple that with their consistent ability to take the ball away on defense they suddenly rocketed to the top of turnover differential and that contributed to wins, without question.

My 53: Offense (23) QB - Allen; Trubisky (2) FB - Gilliam (1) RB - Cook; David; Johnson (3) TE - Kincaid; Knox; Hawes (3) WR - Coleman; Palmer; Shakir; Samuel; Shavers (5) OL - Dawkins; Edwards; McGovern; Torrence; Brown; Anderson; Grable; Van Demark; Van Pran-Granger (9) Defense (26) DL - Rousseau; Oliver; Jones; Bosa; Carter; Epenesa; Jackson; Sanders; Walker; Solomon (10) LB - Bernard; Milano; Williams; Andreeson; Ulofoshio (5) CB - Benford; Hairston; Johnson; White; Hancock; Jackson; Strong (7) S - Rapp; Hamlin; Forrest; Bishop; (4) Special Teams (4) K - Bass (1) P - Camarda (1) KR/PR - Codrington (1) LS - Ferguson (1) The guys in orange are the guys I have in genuine roster battles. I think on offense Gilliam could come under pressure if Hawes beats out Davidson for the third tight end job and they like him enough on teams, though my instinct is they keep both. Shavers is my WR5 at the moment by process of elimination if nothing else, he made a big play when he got his chance last year and is a genuine force on special teams. Solomon might be a victim of a numbers game at edge although a camp / pre-season trade of AJ Epenesa is very much a possibility IMO. A team who didn't get what they want at edge in the draft or who loses a guy in camp might be willing to flip you a future 5th round pick for a one year $6.2m contract with no long term commitment. Ulofoshio is in a battle with Spector and I don't totally rule out Spector winning or them both making it at the expense of an extra DL or DB. I have Dane and Dorian Strong making it right now but it might end up being one from two given Codrington is also essentially a corner and it would mean you are keeping eight even if Hancock is double hatting at safety and Codrington as a returner. I also think the two UB boys Lewis and Ingram are going to put up a hell of a fight to dislodge them.

Also despite his protestations to the contrary - that he would have drafted whoever was top of his board - he kinda gave himself away bit with "I didn't feel we fell short because of offense we needed defense." I mean he isn't wrong we needed defense. That McDermott-Frazier D is almost totally dismantled. There is only really Taron and Milano and Ed hanging on who were mainstays of that era. Last year felt like an in between D. Hopefully we just drafted some mainstays of the next era.

Oh good. Another Keon Coleman. I jest, I jest.... well, maybe a bit 😆 Who said Beane is an idiot? I didn't say that and to be fair to Jeremy and Sneaked Off Joe.... nor did they.

It doesn't always have to be a shootout. We have played 24-20 and 20-17 with them. They STILL came down to the last few minutes. I think if the Bills and Chiefs played 10 times 9 would be won inside the final 4 minutes or OT. You might get one where a team wins by a couple of touchdowns. The teams know each other too well. You are not gonna get a Buccs or Eagles like bludgeoning.

I don't expect it to change massively.

I know it is not x+y=z. And yes, we have made the plays at the end in the regular season they have made them in the playoffs. It isn't by any means impossible that it flips in the 2025 postseason. But I do think a genuine vertical threat receiver would help.

Yea but we need to be able to make those plays when we have the ball with a chance to win. Because every Bills - Chiefs game goes to the final 3 minutes. I don't think if our D holds them to 17 we are winning 29-17. I think it is 17-17 with 3 minutes to play. That is what those games are like. They are nip and tuck and you have to make the plays at the end. Now would it be nice one year for our D to make that play at the end? 100% yes. But give me the choice now do I wanna be 21-17 down with Josh having the ball and us on offense or 21-17 up with Pat having the ball and us on defense... I am always choosing the former.

But there would always have been that other guy higher on his board. And that is my theory I don't think he ignores receiver on draft day. I don't think they place enough value on receiver who can make plays down the field when they build their board.

Every year? He must be the unluckiest GM in football then.

Should rename him Yellow Joe.

Yea I don't think McDermott is storming out of the room Doug Marrone style everytime Brandon drafts him a defensive player haha. But honestly this is the way Brandon believes teams should be built. He said it again in that interview today "you gotta have a Quarterback, and then you gotta be good up front." Given a choice between a lineman and a receiver he will always go lineman. It is just who he is. It is like anything, I am now a director at work and I sometimes catch myself making decisions or even using phrases that I go "man I sound just like the guy who was director when I started at bottom of the totem pole." We are all influenced by the professional cultures and philosophies we are exposed to earlier in our careers. And to be clear - just in case Brandon is reading - I think he is a good general manager and I think he just had the best first 2 days of any draft since he snagged Josh Allen. You can believe that and still say the data supports him undervaluing receiver compared to the rest of the NFL. It is what it is.

Gettleman drafted on WR in 5 drafts as Panthers GM. Marty Hurney drafted 6 in the first two days in 15 drafts as the GM over two spells.

No, you don't. But when GMs have 5 plus years in a job certain trends display themselves.

I also think Jeremy was salty at the end "we are not playing fantasy football, we are smarter than that, and we are not here to be belittled" It was all a bit tense. Anyone know where Joe was during the whole thing? He was happy for Jeremy to take the heat 🤣

I think Jerry is wrong. It is not McDermott's influence. It is Hurney and Gettleman's. GM comes from team that undervalues drafting receivers and undervalues drafting receivers. More at 9.

Shenault will not make this roster

Wow. Just started listening. He comes in HOOOOOOOOTTTTT

No the argument I was responding to is improve the defense and you won't need the plays at the end to win at the end. You will. Those games always come down to the end. Now could it be that it is our D out there trying to make the stop that their D has the last two years? Sure. And maybe the defensive upgrades mean we will but I'm sceptical. And I guarantee if you offered any Chiefs fan the choice... final big drive of the game... ball in Josh's hands or in Pat's they'd take Pat's every single time. The same as we'd take Josh's. Yes you can win it with your defense on the final drive. But when you are talking two elite quarterbacks the offense should have the advantage.

Yea. But the Bills - Chiefs will come down to the end. The two teams know one another too well and they prepare for one another too well. The Chiefs ran 5 plays in the AFCCG they hadnt run all season. And then even when they couldn't move the ball at all vs Philly they ran zero new plays. I just think that is the reality of this rivalry. Maybe one blows the other out once in every 7 or 8 games. Most will come down to the end of the 4th. Whether shootouts or defensive battles.

I just really doubt that. I know it hasn't happened in the playoffs but we have played defensive battles against them in the regular season. 20-17 and 24-20. If we hold them to 20, I bet they hold us right around that too and it still comes down to the final 2 or 3 minutes of the ball game.

They had one for MVS as the WR5 early in 2024.

And to be clear I am not hating on the draft. The most important part of the draft is the premium picks the first two days and I think Beane did as good a job with them as he has since 2018. I am a bit more ciritical of his approach to the vet market in terms of FA and trades but I have no doubt the Bills will win the division and win a playoff game or two as long as Josh is healthy. My worry is that we will end up facing KC having the ball at the end, for a 3rd year in a row and not be able to get it done. And I am less persuaded that just upgrading the defense is the answer there. That isn't how the Bills - Chiefs games are. It won't matter whether we play a 32-29 game or a 20-17 game. The result will come down to the final 3 minutes and I think all of us would rather in that situation the ball be in Josh's hand than in Pat's. And then we gotta make the critical plays. Do we yet have the guys to do it?

I don't disagree. Was a tough year to be in that market. The reason I'd have spent an early day 3 pick on one is in the hope you might at least get someone who can come in for a specific package of plays that threatens that and where he has to be accounted for in the hope it dictates to defenses. Cooper gave us that after his signing last year. Teams felt when he was out there that they at least needed to defend the vertical outside routes and it opened other things up. My concern remains the Baltimore week 4 gameplan. Do we have enough to counter it if teams just say "have the outside, you are not hurting us there"?

The ones who do it consistently sure are.