GunnerBill

The world has moved on. They are rare in the extreme now. The 340 pounders who can still play in this league barely exist.

A tad light? He is 330lbs! You don't get many dlinemen heavier than that capable of playing in the modern NFL

I have also been consistently right.

Exactly. Cap is ever increasing. $15m now isn't $15m three and a half years ago. And YES Sutton will get more than $20m AAV on his next deal. My guess is he will be closer to 25 than 20.

Yea I did think of the Floyd comparison. If he was coming as a FA on a reasonable deal I wouldn't hate it. Trading for him would have to be a day 3 pick.

The way I see this offseason I have 5 needs, 3 of them are premium position needs: outside corner, boundary receiver, edge rusher. I then have needs at DT and Safety in non-priority spots. I'd love to use my first 3 picks to attack those 3 premium positions but while I think there is a chance you can get an edge at the end of round two who has a chance to start... I am more sceptical you can do that at receiver or boundary corner. So if there is a chance to flip one of those picks for a proven vet who fits the scheme and makes cap sense (or can be easily made to) I am interested. If it is going on Edge it has to be an elite player. If I can get Myles Garrett I am in. He is elite level elite otherwise that is the spot I feel best about drafting.

Yea but zero of that is guaranteed. Alexander has no leverage other than to totally sit out. You check he isn't going to do that first, which the Bills have been good at with trades under this regime and if he is you pull the plug. Otherwise... you want a corner who is a really good fit for zone but can do some man stuff and is capable of elite level play? Here he is. Kick the can. Give him a big signing bonus, 2 years, spread the money out over four, kick the can and legit have one of the best starting corner duos in football in 2025 and 2026. He is an all in move but in terms of ones that make sense..... he is near the top of that list for me. It is also the one thing we have never tried in all these battles with KC. Taking them on with high end corners on both sides of the field. It would be ballsy, but if you want a corner capable of starting early out of this draft I think you have to spend #30 on it. And I'd prefer to draft to the strength of the class - Dline, or if one of the receivers slides take a shot.

He'd only be bringing the salary bit with him and zero guaranteed money though. In terms of doing something with the deal the Bills would have the leverage. You just gotta check he isn't gonna Hassan Reddick it before you press go.

I'm surprised he is only 28. Depends on price. But I'd consider moving one of our late 2nds for him if we could get a mid round pick back. Say send #62, swap #131 for #123 and get #160. That makes him worth high round 3 overall value. That feels fair.

In fairness the Eagles D sucked last year. Now I know they got a new DC too, and a significant upgrade at that, but they got 3 major impact players - Mitchell, DeJean and Baun and Nolan Smith took a critical step forward. Hitting big style on 2 draft picks, a FA and having a former first rounder make a leap is not easy... but Philly showed it is possible.

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play.

Outside backer more than a hand in the dirt DE and doesn't really move the dial for me. He is an upgrade, sure. But I wouldn't give up much for it.

Yea I also always thought it was a given that the Bills would extend him. I didn't think it was a given that extending him was a good idea but I said in multiple places if you could get him at $15m AAV then it was a good idea. And the Bills have. Details to come but I think the Bills won this deal and Khalil took a bit less for a chance to stay here and (as you rightly say Alpha) the security of a deal that pays a former 5th rounder life changing money.

Hmm. I think two things on this.... 1. Shakir's 2024 is about the median year for Courtland Sutton. Okay, at this stage that is a career year for Shakir and if it still looks that way halfway through this deal it will have been an overpay, but if he can consistently be in the 800 yard range (I think he can personally) it will look better. 2. Courtland Sutton signed his deal halfway through the 2021 season. It is three and a half years old. The salary cap has rocketed by over 50% in that period. The Broncos and Sutton are in talks currently about extending him again. It won't be for anything close to $15m, he will get way more.

Yea and he is physical freak. He is in the top 20 of my big board and I think he absolutely will go day 1.

Ah got it. No idea how they calculate that. I'd be surprised if there are any cap savings from this deal.

I can't see that the link just sends me back to the overall Bills cap table?

There may. I don't think any of us are in a position to assess that. If he falls, that is likely why. Although also fair to say his 2024 tape was a considerable step up on what he had done before. But it was dominant.

Interesting. Some similarities at the top of the edge class with the exception of Ezeiruaku who I am a fair bit lower on. But the rest of your top 6 is my top 5 if that makes sense. On DTs I'm higher on Nolen. He is DT2 for me then have Harmon and Grant same order as you do just below him. TJ Sanders is my DT5. I am considerably lower on Alexander. Him being about 28 is probably a semi-conscious bias there though 🤣

How? It's $3.4m now. The vet min salary for Shakir in 2025 is $1.1m. But there will be a signing bonus to be amortised on the cap. For a saving of $1.8m that would have to be just a $2.5m signinf bonus spread over 5 years (the current year and the 4 new ones) and no way his agent has let him take that.

It does, I think, kill off the prospect of the blockbuster vet receiver trade in 2025. That was always my take. Shakir I'd do if you could get him in at $15m AAV - so long as you have a plan for outside receiver that you think is cost effective in terms of vet FA or draft. You gotta give Josh one guy at least he knows he can trust and who is going to be here. I expect as well when we see the details the Bills are tied to him for 2025, 2026 and 2027, there is an expensive out that they could take but would rather not in 2028 and then a much cheaper out that they might take depending on performance in 2029.

Yes but the amortised signing bonus kicks in immediately. I imagine they have reduced his 2025 salary from the planned $3.4m down to the vet min $1.1m which "saves" you $2.3m but then I bet the amortised signing bonus is in $2-3m per year range. So best case is it is about cap neutral for 2025. There are ways you can get creative and try and eek some cap savings out with smaller signing bonus big guaranteed restructure bonus in 2026... so guarantee Khalil his $1.1m base salary in 2025, plus say a $6m initial signing bonus spread over 5 years (the one remaining rookie contract year and the four new ones at about $1.2m per year) so you have given him $7m in money straight away which is double what he would have earned in 2025 on the rookie deal. Then guarantee his 2026 salary at say $6m plus a guranteed built in restructure bonus of $19m (which gets you to the reported $32m in total guarantees) which would then spread the $19m out over only the 4 years of the new deal so he would have a standing amortisation charge of $1.2m (original signing bonus) and $4.75m (restructure bonus) in all four years of the new deal which means basically the minimum he could ever cost on the cap those remaining years would be c. $6m... and you'd still have to add an average of $9m per year of non-guaranteed salary to that to round out the $60m. Personally not sure that is worth it in order to find another $1m of cap space in 2025. I'd expect a more coventional structure something like: Base salary in 2025: $1.1m (vet min for him) Total signing bonus: $12.5m Amortised signing bonus charge in 2025: $2.5m Total 2025 cap hit: $3.5m

I disagree that you can get another year from Douglas. I am paying that man not another dime to start at corner for me. He was woeful in 2024.

Mahomes was getting it out in 1.7 seconds. It wasn't pressure that was the issue it was coverage.

Against KC the problem was too much man rather than not enough of it.