GunnerBill

I don't think the Steers W-L thing is the slam dunk you think it is. Pittsburgh wins games based on its defense. In the past two seasons, Trubisky's era there, they have won 19 games. In only 3 of those have they given up 20 points or more.... the starters in those three games were one each for Trubisky, Pickett and Rudolph. I wouldn't want either as my starter. But I'd take Trubisky over Wilson as my backup 100 times out of 100. Now if I was Denver and I didn't have a QB I'd take Wilson because who knows... maybe there is something untapped that freed from the Jets can come out. We definitely know at this stage who Trubisky is. But his floor is comfortably higher than Wilson's.

The problem getting into the top 3 is those 3 teams all want Quarterbacks. Both Washington and New England have taken calls and politely declined from what I hear. Maybe if the wrong one is left at #3 New England's stance on that changes on draft night. They might only like 1 guy but while there is a chance he is there they don't want to move. But realistically I think #4 is where Minnesota will end up getting. That wouldn't need a receiver thrown in and I think they'd be loathed to do it. If they end up needing to help out a rookie having Jefferson and Addison to use is no bad start.

I agree with most of this though I'm not sure I buy that the Vikings are going to suck quite that bad. That pick is more likely 40-45 than 35-40 I reckon. 35 would mean they have the third worst record in the league I just don't see that. They still have a very good oline, two excellent receivers, a good tight end.... okay QB is a complete unknown but I'd be surprised if they were total suckitude with their talent.

Other than he likes Pearsall way more than I do - Joe basically sees the round 1 and 2 receivers the same as me. If you pretend Pearsall doesn't exist his top 8 is the same as mine.

Okay so roughly it is: Top 10 grade: Elite Quarterback prospect able to start in the league and play at a high level almost immediately. (numerically that is a 7.6 or above to me in my grading structure) Mid 1st round grade: Able to be a solid NFL starter almost immediately, has potential to trend towards a high level QB in time. (numerically a 7.3-7.5) Late 1st: Able to be a solid starter in the NFL immediately and capable of being a two contract starter (a "franchise" Quarterback) even if not looking at that high level ceiling. (numerically a 7.0-7.2) High 2nd: Potential to become a solid two contract starter in the NFL but might need some work to get there. (6.6-6.8) Late 2nd: Project who can't start early but has traits to make an NFL starter. (6.0-6.4) Early 3rd: Can be an game manager. Capable of starting while on a rookie contract. Unlikely to be a guy any team commits to long term. (5.6-5.8) Late 3rd: Bridge Quarterback who could start for multiple teams but never be the guy. (5.0-5.4) 4th round: High level backup potential 5th round: Potential to be a bounce around backup 6th/7th round: Some traits to work with as a developmental prospect. Again everyone has their own way. My grading is based on learning how others do it and taking from it but it also isn't supposed to be a copy of anyone else's. It is what makes sense to me and how I try and keep myself consistent year to year. Of course you do tweak your thinking as you go. And I think I feel differently about some elements than I did 11 years ago when I started. As for how they stack up... I don't have a slam dunk in this class. I think it is a class with guys with some talent but as I said at the start.... the more I watched - especially Williams, Maye and Daniels - the more I saw of their warts. If you are one of those top 3 teams with desperate needs at Quarterback I think you gotta take a shot here. But you gotta do so knowing there is considerable risk and you better have a really solid plan for each of them as to how younare going to use them early and try and develop them. With each if they end up in a bad fit system wise it could be a disaster. Interesting. I saw more Mahomes than Allen. Just in the way he creates. But I agree the question with him is whether he can perform consistently from the pocket - get through his progressions and get the ball out.

Dugger hasn't played one posititon in the league either. He has also been a slot, safety, LB hybrid. I take the point on Mathieu he has just been a safety in the NFL. Also while in 2023 DeJean was primarily an outside corner for Iowa he played a lot of slot and a lot of box safety in 2022. This is not as simple a case as you make it sound of a guy that has been stuck out on the boundary for 3 years in college suddenly wanting to play all over in the pros.

He is definitely a project. I mentioned two things in his mechanics - I think the wind up is going to be cat nip to NFL rushers and I think he drops his arm when feeling pressure. So I don't think Simms is talking nonsense. The reason he is still a first rounder to me is of all six of them the one who has some obvious elite level Quarterback play moments on his film is Maye. When he is good it is "you could be a top 5 QB in the league tomorrow" good. He might a bit Josh Allen like in that it might be year 3 before that is what you get (not comparing to Josh otherwise just in terms of development arc - he is more Herbert than Allen IMO). But if he reaches his ceiling Maye can be elite.

I don't push Quarterbacks up the board. I grade them the way I grade other premium positions. I think they all go round 1 or early round 2. But that doesn't mean they are all worth that.

I like Houston. Meh on Denver. But that is very fugly.

Yea I think he is the one who scares me a bit. I think he has some bust potential, for sure, and I am not sure New England is a great place for him as a rookie, bad oline and no weapons. But if one of these hits big I can see why it might be Maye.

**** Warning Long Post **** It's draft week! So here, finally, are my tape evaluations of the top Quarterbacks in the year's NFL Draft. I have only done the top 6 guys this year. I think I said last year it was too much SEC when watching the film... this year it was a lot of PAC 12! Roll on re-alignment!! A reminder of my process for those who are new before we begin: 1. My process is four step as every year: - Try to identify the runners and riders at Quarterback the summer before; - Try and watch each at least twice in live game action on tv by mid season; - Film review in the early part of the year. For Quarterbacks I set the minimum number of games watched at 5; 2. I try and balance the games I watch back in the evaluation phase for each prospect. I want to see them at their best and their worst in so far as is possible and against a range of opposition where possible. 3. My grades for each are against an objective scale…. They are not predictions of where players should go in the draft. I have to grade them not only against this draft and this year but against an objective scale so that in future years you can benchmark other classes - that might be better or worse - against it. Before we start I should say that four of these guys ended up with a LOWER grade after the film review than my indicative grading based on watching them on TV. Only two went up - Bo Nix (slightly) and Michael Penix (more significantly). I think it is a class with a lot of guys who do some things well, but they all have some really noticeable holes when you get into deep film study too. Here goes.... Caleb Williams – USC – Junior Games watched: Utah, UCLA (2022) Notre Dame, Colorado, California, Oregon, Stanford (all 2023) Pros: The first thing that jumps of the film with Williams is his creativity. It is Mahomes like. He sees passing lanes that most Quarterbacks don’t see and is able to manipulate arm angles and flip the ball out when otherwise a play would be dead. He isn’t Justin Fields (who he will be replacing) but he has plus mobility. You are going to be able to use his legs, especially early in his NFL career to buy him some time, make some first downs and get into some rhythm. Excellent fast release and generates good velocity on the ball especially in the intermediate range. Throws core NFL concepts – the slant, the out and the deep post well and with a level of consistency. They are going to be staples of any offense you insert him into as a rookie. Was asked to go through progressions and read the field. Often asked to get to his third or fourth read which will help the mental transition to the NFL. Carries his team. Especially in 2023 his supporting cast wasn’t great. Yes, it affected his production some, but he was still able to lead them back in numerous games where he was asked to throw 35-40 times. Cons: Starts with the size. Being a 6’1 Quarterback in the NFL these days isn’t the total anomaly it was in the past but it limits your ability to do much under centre stuff and Caleb will need to make his living in shotgun. He holds the ball too long. The downside of asking him to read the full field is some teams I feel like he is too slow getting through progressions and that is where the sacks come from. Holding the ball also contributes to fumbles which in 2023 were a major issue – 16 in 12 starts. Too willing too just fling the ball up when off platform and under pressure. It bit him in the Notre Dame game but there were other examples on film where I thought it could have led to interceptions and he got lucky. I think his deep ball accuracy is questionable. While I like the velocity he generates in the intermediate range his deep balls seem to die a bit at the end. Could sell play action better. I feel like he is very quick to come off the fake. Sometimes that helps him but often it means defenders haven’t fully committed to playing the run and so passing windows aren’t fully open. Conclusion: Caleb Williams is the kind of playmaker first, Quarterback second that we have seen increasingly become the norm in the NFL over the past 7 or 8 years. The natural creativity is going to be attractive to a team like the Bears who still have some issues up front and will benefit from a Quarterback that doesn’t need to be comfortable to thrive but his long-term ceiling will depend on him improving his processing and doing the routine with greater consistency. Top half of first round grade. Drake Maye – North Carolina – Redshirt Sophomore Games watched: Clemson, Pittsburgh (2022); Clemson, Miami, Duke, South Carolina (all 2023) Pros: Prototypical size and play style and aged 21 there remains room for him to grow and improve. Live arm, plenty of pop on it and makes you defend all areas of the field. I like that he keeps his eyes downfield even when things get messy in the pocket. He does have issues under pressure, which I will come onto, but he doesn’t look down at the rush he keeps seeking options. Good ball placement on back shoulder throws and throws the fade well. Love the trajectory he gets on downfield throws, especially the go route. His ball has a lovely arc and drops in the bucket consistently. Not going to be a dual threat style weapon but has enough mobility to get on the move outside the pocket and pick up some yards on scramble drills. Cons: His arm angle definitely gets impacted by pressure and as a result he has a tendency to get low in those scenarios leading to balls hitting the ground and batted balls. Sixteen interceptions in two seasons and the vast majority are down to decision making. Can get reckless at inopportune moments and in game scenarios that don’t call for it. That recklessness also leads to him taking too many chances into double and even triple coverage especially to Tez Walker who he has a tendency to lock onto as his primary target. His release is inefficient and elongated. I worry that will give NFL edge rushers a lot of chances to knock the ball out during the wind up. The downside of him keeping his eyes downfield so well is that he occasionally walks into sacks in the pocket. His footwork tends to get sloppy when he feels the outside rush and he creates his own problems at times. Regressed in 2023. His 2022 film is better and shows more consistency. Got to wonder if that is teams cottoning on to some of his tendencies. Conclusion: Drake Maye is the most conventional early round Quarterback of the group and there are flashes of elite level Quarterback play. He is also one of the youngest in this class with the most room to grow. He makes big boy NFL throws with ease at times but there is a recklessness and a rawness that you are going to have to be able to live with early while he continues to mature. He will need very skilled handling by Head Coach and OC to develop him into what they hope he can become. Behind a bad line and without weapons early it could get really messy. Late first round grade. Jayden Daniels – LSU – Senior Games watched: Alabama, Florida State (2022); Alabama, Florida, Army, Missouri (all 2023) Pros: Elite athlete, going to be a genuine dual threat Quarterback at the NFL level. There are going to be opportunities for him as a passer at the next level that are created by defensive coordinators game planning to take his legs away. Excellent thrower on the move. When you roll him out create a half field read and also give him the option to keep it he is deadly. I love him pre-snap. Sets and adjusts protections, understands what he sees and is mentally as advanced as any Quarterback in the class. Throws with anticipation, especially against zone defense. Recognises when his receivers will hit the soft spot in the zone and gets the ball there with an opportunity for yards after the catch. Good accuracy in the middle of the field where he gets the ball in front of his receivers without creating lots of opportunities for negative plays. Has definitely works on his footwork and it was improved in 2023 even over and above 2022. Much more consistent and much more repeatable and it has led to improved mechanics in the pocket. Cons: He is very thin. His frame is wiry both top and bottom half and he looks slight even against college athletes. His ability to hold up to the physicality of the NFL is a legit question. His arm is only okay. He has enough to get by but the velocity is average and that affects his ability to challenge tight windows, especially where faced with man coverage looks. Possibly linked to his arm but he has a tendency to leave his deep balls short, making receivers come back to them and giving defensive backs a chance to get back into the play. Also potentially linked to the arm limitations but his accuracy dips significantly outside the numbers, even in the short game – shallow outs, dump offs, and throws to the flat. Think he can lock onto targets. The interception he threw vs Alabama was created by Dallas Turner reading his eyes and getting his hands into the passing lane and I think he could do more to manipulate defenses with his eyes. Needs to speed up the processor at times. When the ball comes out on time he looks a much better Quarterback, especially when projecting to the pro level. When he holds it uncertainty creeps into his game. Conclusion: I know this is hardly an original take but there is a lot of Lamar Jackson about Jayden Daniels. He has the elite dual threat ability and is much more comfortable throwing between the numbers than he is outside them. He doesn’t have Lamar’s arm and that would seem to lower the ceiling but he is more advanced between the ears than Jackson was coming out. Mid second round grade. Michael Penix – Washington – Senior Games watched: Stanford, UCLA (both 2022); Oregon, Michigan, Texas, California, Tulsa (all 2023) Pros: The most natural pocket passer in the class, Penix has great feel for where pressure is coming from and is able to move his feet to slide up and to the side and give himself the best window to make a throw. He is also the most aggressive passer in the class for me. Nobody is willing to give his wide receivers a chance to go and make a play as much as Michael Penix. He is willing to attack downfield against man and zone. When going downfield against zone coverage shows good awareness and understands the weak spots in cover 3 and cover 2. Good velocity on his ball and huge hands that help him control his spiral in even in weather. Sets and adjusts his own protections. Understands how defenses are attacking him and is good at sliding his blocking towards the pressure. Good touch and placement in the short game, gives his playmakers the chance to make yards after the catch. Cons: An older prospect at age 24 who suffered two ACL injuries in his time at Indiana before transferring. That is definitely going to make teams wary. The aggressive nature of his game means he is going to throw picks – especially when you consider the talent advantage he had at wide receiver in Washington which won’t necessarily be the case in the NFL. There is a bit of sloppiness in his footwork. The backfoot has a bit of a tendency to come up and wave around. I think he is a bit of an arm thrower and he could improve his consistency if he tidies up the base. If you can move him off the spot his effectiveness really suffers. He is limited athletically and you will need to have a solid line in front of him. Equally when the play breaks down I feel like he gets flustered rather than staying with it. I felt in the National Championship game he missed some opportunities where if he stayed patient there were scramble drill plays to be made. He’s a lefty. I know that shouldn’t matter but it is such a rarity at the NFL level and I just feel like it adds a complexity to the way you block and we have seen with Tua in Miami the challenges they have had getting the offensive line right. Conclusion: I feel like throw back 20 years and Penix is probably a first round grade. It is a bit of a sign of how the NFL has changed that teams value that mobility and ability to operate out of structure so much more these days. I think he has one of the higher floors among the guys in the draft but the ceiling is probably lower. He needs a good offensive line and a vertical passing scheme but he has a chance to be a really solid starter. Early second round grade. Bo Nix – Oregon – Senior Games watched: Georgia, Utah, UCLA (all 2022); Colorado, Washington, USC, Utah (all 2023) Pros: Nix is experienced. He will be a 24 year old rookie and has the most starts ever for a Quarterback at the FBS level and his best season was his last one which suggests he may still be on the upswing. I think he has sufficient arm and a fast release. His throwing motion is very repeatable and it allows him to be pretty consistent with his accuracy – especially over the middle – and get the ball to his playmakers. I like him in the quick game. If you want to run 3 step drop, ball out, pitch and catch type concepts then Bo Nix is your guy. Love where he places the ball on back shoulder throws. He is very consistent at putting it where a defender cannot make a play on the ball without coming through the receiver first. He generated some flags in college, he will benefit from even more in the NFL. Mobility. He is a really good athlete who will be able to make plays outside the pocket with his legs and his arm and he does a good job creating when the play breaks down. Demonstrates decent recognition pre-snap and identifies mismatches well (even if at Oregon he benefitted from plenty of them). Cons: He is 24 years old and there are still areas of his game that require development – is that a risk you want to take with a 24 year old? Still not a quick processor. Oregon’s offense designed a bunch of wide open receivers and single defender reads. In the NFL your Quarterback is going to have to drop back on 3rd and long 3 or 4 times a game and read the entire field. I fear Nix will struggle with that. Has a tendency to hesitate and hold the ball if his first read isn’t there or even if the window is tight. If he double clutches in the NFL he will take sacks. If he is late on throws his opponents will end up with the ball. Could be better at knowing when to use touch and when to drive the ball. Unless you have a cannon arm (Nix doesn’t) the trajectory with which he throws outside is too flat and could lead to picks. Footwork gets really fidgety on crunch downs. Often results in misfires where his base is not set. While his 2023 production is undoubtedly excellent there is a lot of YAC from his receivers in those numbers. His ceiling is a distributor in my view, not a playmaker. Conclusion: I confess I found Nix a hard evaluation because I fear I have a bias against him that goes back to seeing him struggle in the SEC with Auburn. He has definitely improved and I can see a route to him as an NFL starter but I don’t think this is a franchise Quarterback. I think is asked to be a functional game manager you can win some games with Nix but his weaknesses will always rear their head at inopportune moments. Early third round grade. JJ McCarthy – Michigan – Junior Games watched: Michigan State, Nebraska (both 2022); Purdue, Ohio State, Alabama, Washington (all 2023). Pros: Ran a pro-style offense in college, can go under centre, set protections and run conventional play action concepts. Only just turned 21, can still develop. His third down production is very impressive. He doesn’t mind challenging tight windows when he needs to make a play. Mobile, can move, and has some dog in him. Doesn’t give up on plays and is willing to run for first downs and move the chains. My favourite thing about him is the way he stands in the pocket. He wants to play the game from the pocket, he wants to make throws and he is willing to get hit in order to do so. Accurate on slants and curls in the middle of the field, especially when faced with zone coverage and shows awareness of how to lead his receivers into areas where there is YAC potential. Safe decision maker. There are negatives to that too but I think you can trust JJ McCarthy not to be a turnover machine as a rookie in the NFL. Understands game situation and only takes the riskier option on “gotta have it” downs. Cons: Don’t like his arm and don’t like his release. He has an elongated release arc and he doesn’t have enough drive power or velocity on his football to overcome that. If you can pressure him his accuracy falls off a cliff. Has a tendency to miss high too often too and that is always risky at the NFL level. Very little evidence of him as a full field reader. Possibly a feature of the offense but slow getting through progressions and stays on covered guys too long. Don’t see a lot of wow on his tape. There are functional throws, there are a few nice scrambles outside the pocket but he didn’t get you excited watching him. He is a boring watch. Isn’t super big or athletic and I think his ability to make people miss outside the pocket is going to be limited. Such a low volume passer in college that I don’t know how he’d handle being the face of a franchise, expected to win games on his arm. You are going to need to give him a running game and some decent quick game YAC specialists to have success early. Conclusion: JJ McCarthy was a winning college Quarterback who was coached to be an efficient game manager and filled that role impressively. The question marks on him are whether he has the physical gifts to elevate anything around him and whether he is mentally advanced enough in terms of understanding and diagnosing what he sees from a defense given how little experience he has as a passer. I think he could start for a team for a period but his long term future in the NFL is as a bridge Quarterback or a solid backup. Late 3rd round grade.

I'd be stunned if by week 4 Johnson isn't at LT.

With the 4th pick of the 2024 TSW mock draft version 3.0, the Arizona Cardinals select: Marvin Harrison, Wide Receiver, Ohio State. It would have taken a big offer to move me down. Nothing was forthcoming. Then it is between the two best players in the draft for me - Harrison and Alt. But the Cards took Paris Johnson who I remain high on as my LT of the future at #6 last year. So I go get Kyler a WR1 in Harrison. He was at his best with prime DHop and we need to recreate that element in our offense. @NeverOutNick and the Los Angeles Chargers are now on the clock.

The rumour on Latu is the majority of teams have cleared him. Which means he won't be there at #28 IMO.

McDaniel loves him though. He was like a Swifty fangirl over him at the pro day. I can absolutely see it.

I like Javon a fair bit. I'm higher than the consensus on him too. But I wouldn't take him above Legette. Not. A. Chance.

It's a good draft class in the top 100. Not at all positions, sure, but that's the case in every draft. Overall this is a good class at the top. 100/120 I'd say. Below that yea.... I think it drops off pretty fast. Chances of many starters from rounds 5 though 7 is even slimmer than usual.

I think he is a zone corner and will be a good one. I would not move him to safety personally. As for the wary of hybrids..... Kyle Dugger, Kyle Hamilton, Tyran Mathieu - all hybrids in college who have been good to excellent in the NFL.

Legette and I wouldn't take more than a nano second to make that decision.

Early 20s. Its his MO.

Yea I have been mocking them OT or DL all the way through. But that Wiggins thing is really interesting. It makes a lot of sense. And value wise he is outstanding at #31.

Two corner links I have heard in the last couple of days on podcasts that when I've done some cross checking seem to check out: Kool-Aid is getting a lot of looks by Jacksonville and Nate Wiggins and the 49ers. Told that John Lynch has loved Wiggins since the start but thought until recently he had no chance to still be there. If he gets in range don't be shocked if the 9ers even trade up slightly for him.

My final mock is only a 1 rounder. If I did into round 2 Kneeland would be a fringe 2nd round guy..... he could go late two or he will go early 3. Mocking and grading are different. As @Alphadawg7 says he is going to get pushed up by a weak edge class - especially for guys to play as a 4-3 end.

If they do wait for 13 years of ineptitude and then hiring him back. #Pegulaball.

This is definitely true and the Bills luck has got gradually worse on that score the past 3 seasons. They need to hope they have better luck on the injury front this year, because they start a little thinner than in the past IMO.