GunnerBill

Welcome one and all to Draft Day!! It's finally here. It has felt like a long time coming. As has become traditional now I publish a compendium of my draft content from the past few months on the day of the draft, or sometimes just before. Hopefully people find it useful to refer back to as the draft progresses but equally it serves as a useful archive for what I thought at the time when we look back. For example, when we have been talking about the relative strength of receiver classes this year it has been a useful cross reference back to other strong receiver group such as 2020 etc. It helps us remember where I was right and where I was wrong - and don't worry, I'm wrong plenty! I have graded 140 players this year and it is an interesting class. I think there is a small cluster of true elite guys at the top and then there is a real nice group of mid to late first round talent and that pattern continues through day 2. I don't think it is the deepest class though. Plenty has been made of the reduced number of underclassmen coming out and what you have this year is a ton of older prospects, especially on day 3, who might be at or close to their physical peak and have either had interesting journeys at the college level or have underachieved their expectations. That isn't to say some of those guys won't be productive NFL players, but I think it is going to be harder to find diamonds in the rough in this class. Most of them have been well polished and are not that shiny! Okay... onto business. Already published: My 2024 Draft Sleepers with an additional couple of added names My 2024 Quarterback evaluations My FINAL 2024 Mock Draft As ever the new content that I pull together for this thread is: A full list of my 21 first round grades; An analysis of my top 100; Positional top 5s. [Key: * denotes medical concern; ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern] First Round Grades: 1. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame 2. Marvin Harrison Jnr, WR, Ohio State 3. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU 4. Caleb Williams, QB, USC 5. Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois* 6. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington 7. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo 8. Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA* 9. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama 10. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State 11. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama 12. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State 13. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas 14. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina 15. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson 16. Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa* 17. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia* 18. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina 19. Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona 20. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia 21. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama I also then have five 1st/2nd round borderline grades. They are: 22. Brian Thomas, WR, LSU*; 23. Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington; 24. Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State; 25. Taliese Fuage, OT, Oregon State; 26. Graham Barton, IOL, Duke. Analysis of the top 100: Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:- Quarterback: 6 Running Back: 5 Tight End: 3 Wide Receiver: 20 Offensive Tackle: 12 Interior Offensive Line: 10 Total offensive players: 56 Interior Defensive Line: 9 Edge Rusher: 10 Linebacker: 4 Corner: 13 Safety: 8 Total defensive players: 44 Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100: This is a strong offensive draft at the top - helped significantly by the fact that there is a really good crop of wide receivers that could, and most will, go in the first two days. There is also a really good oline group. That broadly breaks down to - offensive tackles early (8 of the 12 tackles in my top 100 are actually in my top 40) and interior offensive line later (only 2 of the 10 interior offensive linemen are in my top 40). Those groups and an interesting Quarterback class that has some ability but has some holes too make up for a draft that is weak at running back in terms of bona-fide RB1s at the NFL level and very weak at tight end (my third tight end in the top 100 just sneaks in at #97). Tight end classes seem to go in odd years. Last year was a decent group, this year was very thin - that probably means 2025 will be stronger again. In terms of defense, it's a strange class on many ways. I think the corner group is pretty solid. There are some clear tiers in there, the top 5 then a group of round two guys, then a group of scheme specific types that can go rounds 3 and 4. And the safety class while lacking a standout star has a lot of guys who I think will go between late 2nd and mid 4th and could well be good long term NFL starters. The defensive line group is had to get a handle on. I think the top two interior guys and the top 3 edge guys are pretty good. They are all legit first round talents. When you get beyond that though you get scheme specific very quickly. I've said multiple times that my group of 2nd round grades at the edge spot probably all want to play as a 3-4 outside backer who is almost exclusively in a 2 point stance. The third and fourth rounds are thin at the spot and again you are going to have them graded all over the place by teams because the scheme specificity for some these guys is pretty clear. Finally it isn't a good linebacker group. I think since I started doing this off the ball linebacker is the position that feels like it has had the most consistent drop off in the depth of quality players available in drafts. As college defenses get increasingly multiple finding guys you can plug into base defenses in the NFL at mike linebacker in particular is getting more difficult. Once you go beyond the top 100 to 120 it starts to thin out. Kinda the opposite of last year when the top of my board was pretty sparse through the first two rounds but then like a Christmas tree it thickened out lower down. This board looks a bit more top heavy but I think this is one of the better top 100s of recent years - and certainly my 100th ranked player is almost a full round higher than he was in 2023 in terms of grade. Positional Top 5s: (round I have them graded in parenthesis) Quarterback 1. Caleb Williams, USC (1st) 2. Drake Maye, North Carolina (1st) 3. Michael Penix Jnr*, Washington (2nd) 4. Jayden Daniels, LSU (2nd) 5. Bo Nix, Oregon (3rd) Running Back 1. Jonathan Brooks, Texas (2nd) 2. Trey Benson, Florida State (2nd) 3. Jaylen Wright, Tennessee (3rd) 4. MarShawn Lloyd, USC (3rd) 5. Blake Corum, Michigan (3rd) Wide Receiver 1. Marvin Harrison Jnr, Ohio State (1st) 2. Malik Nabers, LSU (1st) 3. Rome Odunze, Washington (1st) 4. Xavier Legette, South Carolina (1st) 5. Brian Thomas Jnr*, LSU (1st/2nd) Tight End 1. Brock Bowers, Georgia (1st) 2. Ja'Tavion Sanders, Texas (2nd) 3. Cade Stover, Ohio State (3rd) 4. Ben Sinnott, Kansas State (4th) 5. Theo Johnson, Penn State (4th) Offensive Tackle 1. Joe Alt, Notre Dame (1st) 2. Olu Fashanu, Penn State (1st) 3. Amarius Mims*, Georgia (1st) 4. Jordan Morgan, Arizona (1st) 5. Troy Fautanu, Washington (1st/2nd) Interior Offensive Line 1. Graham Barton, Duke (1st/2nd) 2. Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon (2nd) 3. Christian Haynes, UConn (2nd) 4. Zach Frazier, West Virginia (2nd) 5. Christian Mahogany, Boston College (3rd) Interior Defensive Line 1. Jer'Zhan Newton*, Illinois (1st) 2. Byron Murhpy, Texas (1st) 3. Braden Fiske, Florida State (2nd) 4. Kris Jenkins, Michigan (2nd) 5. T'Vondre Sweat^, Texas (2nd) EDGE 1. Laiatu Latu*, UCLA (1st) 2. Dallas Turner, Alabama (1st) 3. Jared Verse, Florida State (1st) 4. Chop Robinson, Penn State (1st/2nd) 5. Bralen Trice, Washington (2nd) Linebacker 1. Payton Wilson, North Carolina State (2nd) 2. Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M (2nd) 3. Jeremiah Trotter, Clemson (3rd) 4. Junior Colson, Michigan (3rd) 5. Jordan Magee, Temple (4th) Corner 1. Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo (1st) 2. Terrion Arnold, Alabama (1st) 3. Nate Wiggins, Clemson (1st) 4. Cooper DeJean, Iowa (1st) 5. Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama (1st) Safety 1. Tyler Nubin, Minnesota (2nd) 2. Calen Bullock, USC (2nd) 3. Jaden Hicks, Washington State (3rd) 4. Cole Bishop, Utah (3rd) 5. Javon Bullard, Georgia (3rd) Final thoughts I think in terms of the names that we can expect to come off the board tonight there are not going to be too many shocks. Possibly one or two offensive tackles or wide receivers that had been pegged more as day two types by many sneaking into round 1 or if you want a total shock Payton Wilson finding his way into the last half dozen picks, which I've seen nobody mock, wouldn't be a complete shock to me. Otherwise it is going to be a case of waiting to see where the runs start. We expect an early run on the three top wideouts and on quarterbacks but then the teens and early 20s could be an absolute glut of offensive tackles and corners. I will do my usual day by day de-briefs and will be interesting to see what the board looks like going into day two. Last year we saw the likes of Joey Porter and Will Levis still there only to be snapped up in the first couple of picks, and then thinking back to the 2020 draft where the wide receiver depth was arguably comparable Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman were the first two names called on the second day. Almost time for the talking and speculating to stop.... my mock needs its final touches. Then we are ready to roll!!

Fair. Don't have the liquidity would have been a better phrase.

I didn't know you were targeting Thomas when I offered the trade but it did cross my mind that you might have been. It was obvious he was going to win the Bills poll. If Thomas had been there you'd have taken him, right?

The Bengals don't have the money to keep this team together and do the money up front can kick exercise that sustaining a good team takes. Burrow will force his way out of there before there is any question of Allen leaving here IMO.

Yea if they took him in round 4 I'd think a bit early for my tastes but Id understand. Taking him in rounds 1 to 3 with his skillset is mad IMO.

That's the guy!

They are in a no lose position because they trade back or they get Marvin Harrison (or possibly Nabers as some think they prefer him). If I were them I wouldn't do the Giants trade down. I'm only interested in getting a major haul to give up Harrison. But they may well decide otherwise. I also don't think Mitchell gets to #20 either. But half a chance Arnold might and I'd have been interested in him there too. Was more just an example of how you have to play the draft as it goes not as you think it will go. Because there are always surprises.

Where did you see that?

I bet they are still tipping picks in the draft thread. Flippin' Aussies.

Yea he is a freak.

I don't know what you lot can't be happy with one bloody time!

I think it's 8 tomorrow......

With the 20th pick in the 2024 TSW Mock Draft version 3.0, brought to you in association with @Virgil Sports and Media Enterprises, the Arizona Cardinals select: Quinyon Mitchell, Cornerback, Toledo I didn't necessarily plan to trade up here but watching the board as all those offensive tackles, quarterbacks, wide receivers and defensive linemen went it became very apparent to me that the value on the board was at corner - where it just so happens the Cardinals have a huge hole. They signed Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency who is just about serviceable to play one side, but Starling Thomas V, a former UDFA out of UAB is the presumptive starter at the other spot. They need an upgrade. Mitchell is the top corner on my board and has the potential to develop into an elite corner in the NFL with his size, speed and competitiveness. Trading up 7 spots for him while swapping one of my three thirds for a fourth was a no-brainer. I think what is most interesting about this scenario is @Alphadawg7 did the Cardinals in v2.0, traded back at both picks and ended up with Odunze and Wiggins. I've stood pat at #4 and traded up and snagged Harrison and Mitchell. Both scenarios I think would make Arizona better immediately. Proof that there are multiple ways to play it and you have to let the way the board falls drive your decision making over and above getting fixated on players or positions. The aforementioned @Alphadawg7 and the Miami Dolphins are now on the clock.

My kitchen is being done up at the moment so I'll be sitting in a dusty lounge full of stuff that should normally be in a kitchen trying to make enough coffee to stay awake, eating food that doesn't require cooking and playing a full part in the draft thread on here while marking off my board as we go. I am more of a two laptops guy than a two tv screens guy.

Yea OL more generally is even more a lock. I suppose some of the guys could be classified in other spots.... but my guess is: Alt, Fashanu, Fuaga, Latham, Mims, Guyton, Morgan all go and are called tackles. Then I think Fautanu will be called a tackle, he will definitely go. And possibly Barton who might go and might be called a tackle.

It's not true. It was 2003, you are right about that, but it is a common misconception that it was Sehorn. It was someone who played for either the Benglas or the Browns. Forget which.

More OTs will go than WRs on Thursday. That is an absolute lock IMO.

The non-WR version.

He's already had that experience. The puma loved it.

I volunteer to inject Worthy with sperm. Oh... puma sperm you say? Meh.

If they trade up to #19 only Thomas makes sense to me. Because the rest are likely available at #28 or with a very small trade up.

When you have Josh Allen at Quarterback I think one may well lead to the other. I'm not saying the Bills have to trade into the top 10. I was responding to the idea that a first round receiver pick wouldn't necessarily be the #1. I think it is very likely someone they take at #28 would be the #1 receiver in 2024. It is almost a guarantee someone they traded into the top 10 for would be the #1 on this team in 2024.

Indeed even the much lamented Sammy Watkins came in and WAS our number 1 immediately. That that is a trade that was seen to have failed for obvious reasons. But in 2014 he stepped onto the field as our #1 in week 1 and had 900+ yards. He had 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns his second year. The reasons it fell apart after that are well documented and the Bills definitely drafted the wrong guy from that receiver class. But even then that guy gave their passing game an immediate and significant boost.

He is not the best route runner in the draft. If the argument was he is the best route runner outside the top 3.... I could buy that. Of that next group: Thomas, Legette, Mitchell, McConkey and Worthy - which it does seem is increasingly seen as the consensus next cluster - Ladd is the best route runner in terms of precision route running.

Yea but that is just another of your strange foibles.