GunnerBill

New England's pick is in. So it is Maye, right?

Hasn't even got in the building yet. Stopped at Tim Horton's for coffee and still in the freaking queue.

Daniels is Lamar without quite having the arm. Will be interested to see of Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury is a duo that can design the right offense for him.

Okay so is it indeed Daniels? Or have the Commanders being gaslighting us all along?

Having my kitchen renovated. So the lounge is covered in sheets as walls are being knocked down etc...

Are you going to the draft? The league tells them to

I'm sitting on dust sheets as well. #Commitment.

It tends to get even worse day 2 so a plea from me to stay on top of it. I know it's not easy and we appreciate you trying!

Do the Bears finally, and I do mean finally, have a Quarterback.

I had a nap in the afternoon, and I've had 90 minutes before this..... I have coffee. I'll survive. I think.

Bears are on the clock. Here we go!!

NFLN...... now when does the draft thread unlock? And can you remind people not to tip picks in there? Thank you please.

That doesn't surprise me. It is consistent with some of the other backs you like in terms of style. He misses too many holes for me. That is what just has him below Brooks. I think Benson need his linenmen to create holes. Brooks can find creases where they barely exist.

Yea. I considered him there at 32. He could sneak in. But he is a 50/50 shot to be a round 1 pick at this point IMO.

Yea both possibilities make sense to me. I think it says something about needs - it also says a lot about the strength at the top of this OL group IMO. As I said in my analysis post today I have 8 tackles in my top 40 players plus two interior guys in Barton and JPJ.

Is it still starting at 7? Even if this latest rumour is true you only batting .500

I think good chance the Broncos do find a way to trade back and then either they take Nix with that pick or the get a 2nd rounder (currently don't) and take him with that tomorrow.

I'm firmly team NFL Network. Only tried ESPN once. No thanks.

Draft day is here so here is my third and final mock for 2024. This is the one I'll grade myself against. The last couple of years I've done pretty well so pressure's on! I was really tempted to break my golden rule of no trades in version 3.0 but I'm going to stick with it because otherwise you hamstring yourself too much by getting everything jumbled. 1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams – Quarterback, USC No need for analysis here. The Bears traded away Fields, they are going Quarterback and Williams is the best in the class. If he hits his ceiling he can be special. 2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels – Quarterback, LSU I confess this feels a bit like it could be Mac Jones to the 49ers where everyone believed it would happen then when the pick was announced it was Lance. Everything I am reading and hearing suggests this is Daniels. I'm sticking with that. But if Maye's name is read out it wouldn't amaze me. 3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye – Quarterback, North Carolina The consensus took a while to form on what the Patriots would do here but I have always believed they have to stand pat and pick a Quarterback. If Maye went #2 this might be McCarthy, but I think if Maye is there they will select him. 4. Arizona Cardinals – Marvin Harrison – Wide Receiver, Ohio State I had the Cardinals moving down last time around for the Vikings to come up here and select McCarthy. If one of the presumed top 3 falls maybe Arizona can still be persuaded to move back for a pick bounty, but it feels for now like they will stay in this spot and select a receiver and most believe that will be Harrison. 5. Los Angeles Chargers – JC Latham – Offensive Tackle, Alabama I've been dismissive of the Chargers taking a tackle most of the offseason and I have been particularly dismissive of the idea Latham is top 10 pick material (I don't have a first round grade on him). But in the last 24 hours that seems to be the direction things are going. Possibly after a trade back in reality but they want to plug the Crimson Tide prospect in a right tackle whereas they concluded Alt would need to play on the left. 6. New York Giants – Rome Odunze – Wide Receiver, Washington The Giants moving up for a Quarterback is a possibility but if they can't then it will be a receiver at #6. That could be Nabers or Odunze but I am leaning towards them valuing the Washington product's more traditional #1 receiver style and there are one or two character whispers about Nabers too which might not be the guy to move to New York City. 7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt – Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame I have been pretty vocal on the Titans need at tackle. I thought they should have done more at the spot last offseason. This year is all about evaluating Will Levis for new Head Coach Brian Callahan and that starts with giving him protection. Callahan Snr is coaching the offensive line and will love working with Alt who is a mean, nasty plug and play left tackle. 8. Atlanta Falcons – Malik Nabers – Wide Receiver, LSU Since Terry Fontenot became the Falcons General Manager his first round selections have been Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson. If one of the top three receivers gets here he will have the chance to trade back and collect picks but maybe he just sticks to form and picks the best offensive playmaker on the board. 9. Chicago Bears – Byron Murphy II – Defensive Tackle, Texas The Bears drafted two defensive tackles on day two last year but neither gives them any pocket penetration in the middle of the line. Byron Murphy is definitely in the running to be the first defensive player off the board and would be a big upgrade for the Bears. 10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers – Tight End, Georgia I have had Bowers here in both previous versions and I am sticking with it. But if Odunze slides past the Giants at #6 you better believe the Jets will be making calls. They have been fixed on Odunze and Bowers as offensive weaponry since spending capital on their offensive line in free agency. 11. Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy – Quarterback, Michigan The story on the Vikings is that if one of the consensus top three quarterbacks makes it to #4 they would be willing to go big in a trade up. But if they don't they will try and wait on McCarthy because they are comfortable with at least one of the other options if he doesn't make it to them. In this no trade mock he does make it here and is the pick. 12. Denver Broncos – Dallas Turner – EDGE, Alabama The Broncos are a candidate to move back. They could also stay here and pick a Quarterback. But given that it appears the guy they like and the guy the Raiders at #13 like are not the same guy it gives them more flexibility at this spot. Their pass rush was anemic in 2023 and Turner's physical gifts would give them more pop off the edge. 13. Las Vegas Raiders – Michael Penix – Quarterback, Washington I've held off joining the Penix at #13 bandwagon for most of the offseason but in the last week I have come around to the idea. I have always liked him, he is the best pure pocket passer in this class to me, but I thought age and injuries would push him into day 2. It appears, however, that the Raiders are comfortable with his history and not willing to risk losing him by waiting. 14. New Orleans Saints – Olu Fashanu – Offensive Tackle, Penn State The noises from inside the building sound like the Saints are done with 2022 first round pick Trevor Penning and now we learn that right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s could miss the season with a degenerative knee condition. The Saints are definitely going tackle. I think it will be Fashanu who would be an immediate starter at left tackle. 15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell – Cornerback, Toledo The Colts have a solid roster and have been quiet in free agency. But one obvious hole is at corner where return specialist Dallis Flowers, with five career starts to his name, is top of the depth chart opposite second-year man JuJu Brents. Mitchell is likely to be the first corner off the board tonight. 16. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu – Offensive Tackle, Washington A lot of people seem to have pivoted to mocking a corner to the Seahawks with the word on the street being Mike MacDonald is not enamored with Tariq Woolen who struggled in year 2 after a good rookie campaign. I'm sticking with offensive line though and have Fautanu linking up again with his college Offensive Coordinator, Ryan Grubb, now occupies the same position in Seattle. 17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Kool-Aid McKinstry, Cornerback, Alabama I am increasingly confident that corner is the direction the Jags are going in round 1. I think they'd probably like to slide back a few spots before making this selection but they are rumoured to have done a lot of work internally on McKinstry and see him as a scheme and character fit. 18. Cincinnati Bengals – Taliese Fuaga – Offensive Tackle, Oregon State Corner and receiver are possibilities (especially if they were to trade away Tee Higgins) but I still think the achilles heel of this team is their offensive line, especially with an injury prone Quarterback. Mims is a possibility here but Fuaga has met with the team multiple times so he is who I'm going with. 19. Los Angeles Rams – Laiatu Latu – EDGE, UCLA This isn't a pick that I'm mad about because something tells me the Rams would prefer to go offense here. I've seen Xavier Worthy mentioned and he is more their type than someone like a Brian Thomas. But the Rams are rumoured to have done a lot of work on edge guys and Latu falling here feels too good to pass up. 20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Amarius Mims – Offensive Tackle, Georgia In recent days all the Pittsburgh insiders have been saying this pick is Graham Barton, the versatile offensive lineman out of Duke, who would solidify a troublesome center spot for the Steelers. But the phrase I try to remember is take notice in February, ignore in April. In February I heard that they were in love with Mims. He has the highest ceiling of any tackle in the class. 21. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver, Texas This pick will tell us a lot about who is actually holding the balance of power inside the Dolphins building. If it is still GM Chris Grier this pick will be trenches on either side of the ball. But I suspect it is Mike McDaniel and if he is making this pick then the image of him 'fangirling' around Worthy at the Texas pro day may be instructive. 22. Philadelphia Eagles – Terrion Arnold – Cornerback, Alabama The Eagles corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry both began to look like they were declining last season. The secondary couldn't stop anyone. Arnold's ceiling and physical potential is off the charts and drafting high ceiling guys from the SEC is how Howie Roseman rolls. 23. Minnesota Vikings – Jared Verse – EDGE, Florida State Early in the process Verse falling this far seemed pretty unthinkable but as this offensive line group in particular has continued to rise up boards it has resulted in some good defensive players sliding. Verse isn't a fast, bendy, pass rusher but he is a really well rounded, powerful defensive end with good hands and plenty of motor. 24. Dallas Cowboys – Tyler Guyton – Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma State Dallas needs to add to its offensive line and, while Graham Barton and Jackson Powers-Johnson could both be considerations at center, when they have taken guys in the first round they have tended to go for tackles and then work out later who plays where. Tyler Guyton is the sort of big, physical specimen that they like. 25. Green Bay Packers – Cooper DeJean – Cornerback, Iowa This is possibly the most mocked pick of the entire draft season, and if he lasts this far he just makes too much sense for the Packers to pass up. They only ever draft defense or quarterback in round one and they love taking first round defensive backs. They lost Darnell Savage in free agency and traded away Rasul Douglas mid-season so they have possible holes at corner and safety. 26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Chop Robinson – EDGE, Penn State The Buccs lost Shaq Barrett in free agency and they have had some misses with Logan Hall and Joe Tyron-Shoyinka not making much impact to this point in their careers but they did get good production out of third round rookie Yaya Diaby and adding Chop to play opposite him would them some freakish athleticism off the edge. 27. Arizona Cardinals – Graham Barton – Center, Duke The Cardinals have last year's first rounder Paris Johnson and free agency acquisition Jonah Williams penciled in to start at tackle but they still need help inside. Graham Barton is an athletic, versatile lineman who can start at center or guard and get you out of a game at tackle should you require it. 28. Buffalo Bills – Brian Thomas – Wide Receiver, LSU It is possible that if Thomas starts to fall towards them the Bills might move up a few spots in round one for the third year running to snag their future WR1. Their need is pretty acute with the trade of Stefon Diggs and despite concerns about the health of his shoulder Thomas is a legitimate downfield weapon for Josh Allen. 29. Detroit Lions – Jer’Zhan Newton – Defensive Tackle, Illinois I slotted this in to version 2.0 as a bit of a punt knowing that the Lions are usually a team that find a way to extract value from the draft and Newton would be considered among the best players remaining. Since then he had a private workout with the team that I was told "could not have gone any better." I really like this match. 30. Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Morgan – Offensive Tackle, Arizona The Ravens lost traded away their right tackle Morgan Moses and lost both starting guards in free agency – Zeitler to the Lions and Simpson to the Jets. I think Morgan starts at tackle but even if that isn't his long term home he could excel at guard. This is another believe what you hear in February player to team match. 31. San Francisco 49ers – Nate Wiggins – Cornerback, Clemson Whereas this is a trusting what I hear in April. In the last week I have heard two different sources connect Wiggins to the 49ers. The story seems to be that he has been high on GM John Lynch's list the entire process, what has changed is he now looks like he may make it to this sort of pick. 32. Kansas City – Kingsley Suamataia – Offensive Tackle, BYU I see this pick as wide receiver or offensive tackle for Kansas City. However, in this scenario where offensive tackles have flown off the board in front of them I wonder if they feel a sense of urgency to do something about the hole they have at left tackle. Third year player Wanya Morris is currently penciled in to start but in four starts in 2023 he relinquished 2 sacks and 24 pressures. That's no bueno. Okay there we are folks, the final mock of 2024 draft season. This is the one I'll score myself on tonight. Here's hoping!

It is a good day 1 and day 2 group IMO. I think in 10 years if you look back the top 120 this class will stack up well against the top 120 in other classes. I think day 3 is a bit weaker than normal, fewer underclassmen etc.

It's 21 true first round grades. It doesn't mean half the league will reach. Every board will be different and some of those I see as high 2s will be 1s for teams where they are looking at a specific skillset and team fit. But also if you are a team drafting later in the round and the first round grades are gone and you take a high 2nd round grade that isn't a reach. That happens in every draft. I don't see a fit for him. I have been on him for the Jags all offseason but Im being told be people with a history of being right on them that they are lasered in on corner. Add that to the medical concern and I don't think it is crazy that he gets to #28 or close to that range and someone (the Bills or someone else) trades into the earlier 20s to take him

Yea range is my worry with him. I like him in small spaces. But if you can isolate him with grass around him he doesn't have the length or recovery speed to be comfortable IMO.

Not that hard for me to imagine to be honest. My view has always been the maximum that go before the Bills is the top 3 and 1 other.

Welcome one and all to Draft Day!! It's finally here. It has felt like a long time coming. As has become traditional now I publish a compendium of my draft content from the past few months on the day of the draft, or sometimes just before. Hopefully people find it useful to refer back to as the draft progresses but equally it serves as a useful archive for what I thought at the time when we look back. For example, when we have been talking about the relative strength of receiver classes this year it has been a useful cross reference back to other strong receiver group such as 2020 etc. It helps us remember where I was right and where I was wrong - and don't worry, I'm wrong plenty! I have graded 140 players this year and it is an interesting class. I think there is a small cluster of true elite guys at the top and then there is a real nice group of mid to late first round talent and that pattern continues through day 2. I don't think it is the deepest class though. Plenty has been made of the reduced number of underclassmen coming out and what you have this year is a ton of older prospects, especially on day 3, who might be at or close to their physical peak and have either had interesting journeys at the college level or have underachieved their expectations. That isn't to say some of those guys won't be productive NFL players, but I think it is going to be harder to find diamonds in the rough in this class. Most of them have been well polished and are not that shiny! Okay... onto business. Already published: My 2024 Draft Sleepers with an additional couple of added names My 2024 Quarterback evaluations My FINAL 2024 Mock Draft As ever the new content that I pull together for this thread is: A full list of my 21 first round grades; An analysis of my top 100; Positional top 5s. [Key: * denotes medical concern; ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern] First Round Grades: 1. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame 2. Marvin Harrison Jnr, WR, Ohio State 3. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU 4. Caleb Williams, QB, USC 5. Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois* 6. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington 7. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo 8. Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA* 9. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama 10. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State 11. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama 12. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State 13. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas 14. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina 15. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson 16. Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa* 17. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia* 18. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina 19. Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona 20. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia 21. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama I also then have five 1st/2nd round borderline grades. They are: 22. Brian Thomas, WR, LSU*; 23. Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington; 24. Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State; 25. Taliese Fuage, OT, Oregon State; 26. Graham Barton, IOL, Duke. Analysis of the top 100: Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:- Quarterback: 6 Running Back: 5 Tight End: 3 Wide Receiver: 20 Offensive Tackle: 12 Interior Offensive Line: 10 Total offensive players: 56 Interior Defensive Line: 9 Edge Rusher: 10 Linebacker: 4 Corner: 13 Safety: 8 Total defensive players: 44 Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100: This is a strong offensive draft at the top - helped significantly by the fact that there is a really good crop of wide receivers that could, and most will, go in the first two days. There is also a really good oline group. That broadly breaks down to - offensive tackles early (8 of the 12 tackles in my top 100 are actually in my top 40) and interior offensive line later (only 2 of the 10 interior offensive linemen are in my top 40). Those groups and an interesting Quarterback class that has some ability but has some holes too make up for a draft that is weak at running back in terms of bona-fide RB1s at the NFL level and very weak at tight end (my third tight end in the top 100 just sneaks in at #97). Tight end classes seem to go in odd years. Last year was a decent group, this year was very thin - that probably means 2025 will be stronger again. In terms of defense, it's a strange class on many ways. I think the corner group is pretty solid. There are some clear tiers in there, the top 5 then a group of round two guys, then a group of scheme specific types that can go rounds 3 and 4. And the safety class while lacking a standout star has a lot of guys who I think will go between late 2nd and mid 4th and could well be good long term NFL starters. The defensive line group is had to get a handle on. I think the top two interior guys and the top 3 edge guys are pretty good. They are all legit first round talents. When you get beyond that though you get scheme specific very quickly. I've said multiple times that my group of 2nd round grades at the edge spot probably all want to play as a 3-4 outside backer who is almost exclusively in a 2 point stance. The third and fourth rounds are thin at the spot and again you are going to have them graded all over the place by teams because the scheme specificity for some these guys is pretty clear. Finally it isn't a good linebacker group. I think since I started doing this off the ball linebacker is the position that feels like it has had the most consistent drop off in the depth of quality players available in drafts. As college defenses get increasingly multiple finding guys you can plug into base defenses in the NFL at mike linebacker in particular is getting more difficult. Once you go beyond the top 100 to 120 it starts to thin out. Kinda the opposite of last year when the top of my board was pretty sparse through the first two rounds but then like a Christmas tree it thickened out lower down. This board looks a bit more top heavy but I think this is one of the better top 100s of recent years - and certainly my 100th ranked player is almost a full round higher than he was in 2023 in terms of grade. Positional Top 5s: (round I have them graded in parenthesis) Quarterback 1. Caleb Williams, USC (1st) 2. Drake Maye, North Carolina (1st) 3. Michael Penix Jnr*, Washington (2nd) 4. Jayden Daniels, LSU (2nd) 5. Bo Nix, Oregon (3rd) Running Back 1. Jonathan Brooks, Texas (2nd) 2. Trey Benson, Florida State (2nd) 3. Jaylen Wright, Tennessee (3rd) 4. MarShawn Lloyd, USC (3rd) 5. Blake Corum, Michigan (3rd) Wide Receiver 1. Marvin Harrison Jnr, Ohio State (1st) 2. Malik Nabers, LSU (1st) 3. Rome Odunze, Washington (1st) 4. Xavier Legette, South Carolina (1st) 5. Brian Thomas Jnr*, LSU (1st/2nd) Tight End 1. Brock Bowers, Georgia (1st) 2. Ja'Tavion Sanders, Texas (2nd) 3. Cade Stover, Ohio State (3rd) 4. Ben Sinnott, Kansas State (4th) 5. Theo Johnson, Penn State (4th) Offensive Tackle 1. Joe Alt, Notre Dame (1st) 2. Olu Fashanu, Penn State (1st) 3. Amarius Mims*, Georgia (1st) 4. Jordan Morgan, Arizona (1st) 5. Troy Fautanu, Washington (1st/2nd) Interior Offensive Line 1. Graham Barton, Duke (1st/2nd) 2. Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon (2nd) 3. Christian Haynes, UConn (2nd) 4. Zach Frazier, West Virginia (2nd) 5. Christian Mahogany, Boston College (3rd) Interior Defensive Line 1. Jer'Zhan Newton*, Illinois (1st) 2. Byron Murhpy, Texas (1st) 3. Braden Fiske, Florida State (2nd) 4. Kris Jenkins, Michigan (2nd) 5. T'Vondre Sweat^, Texas (2nd) EDGE 1. Laiatu Latu*, UCLA (1st) 2. Dallas Turner, Alabama (1st) 3. Jared Verse, Florida State (1st) 4. Chop Robinson, Penn State (1st/2nd) 5. Bralen Trice, Washington (2nd) Linebacker 1. Payton Wilson, North Carolina State (2nd) 2. Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M (2nd) 3. Jeremiah Trotter, Clemson (3rd) 4. Junior Colson, Michigan (3rd) 5. Jordan Magee, Temple (4th) Corner 1. Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo (1st) 2. Terrion Arnold, Alabama (1st) 3. Nate Wiggins, Clemson (1st) 4. Cooper DeJean, Iowa (1st) 5. Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama (1st) Safety 1. Tyler Nubin, Minnesota (2nd) 2. Calen Bullock, USC (2nd) 3. Jaden Hicks, Washington State (3rd) 4. Cole Bishop, Utah (3rd) 5. Javon Bullard, Georgia (3rd) Final thoughts I think in terms of the names that we can expect to come off the board tonight there are not going to be too many shocks. Possibly one or two offensive tackles or wide receivers that had been pegged more as day two types by many sneaking into round 1 or if you want a total shock Payton Wilson finding his way into the last half dozen picks, which I've seen nobody mock, wouldn't be a complete shock to me. Otherwise it is going to be a case of waiting to see where the runs start. We expect an early run on the three top wideouts and on quarterbacks but then the teens and early 20s could be an absolute glut of offensive tackles and corners. I will do my usual day by day de-briefs and will be interesting to see what the board looks like going into day two. Last year we saw the likes of Joey Porter and Will Levis still there only to be snapped up in the first couple of picks, and then thinking back to the 2020 draft where the wide receiver depth was arguably comparable Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman were the first two names called on the second day. Almost time for the talking and speculating to stop.... my mock needs its final touches. Then we are ready to roll!!

Fair. Don't have the liquidity would have been a better phrase.