GunnerBill

But we don't know that KC liked all those guys. We now know that Beane didn't like Legette or Worthy. So why presume KC liked everyone? I'm not saying the Bills had the power to stop KC drafting good players. Clearly we don't. I just as a matter of principle while they are our main competitor am not super pleased about helping them. I accept it helped us re-stock our day 2 cupboard. That's a plus. But overall the risk that you help them draft a difference maker isn't worth the value back IMO. And as @NoSaint says if it works out in the worst possible way for the Bills it will put major pressure on Beane.

What if one of the other teams calling wanted Worthy? It isn't definitely the case that the only way to keep him from KC was to pick him. And I'm not even that fussed by Worthy particularly. I think he is another WR2 and KC has Rice and Hollywood already that I think fit that criteria (Rice maybe a lower end #1 I suppose, let's see). It isn't about the outcome so much as the process to me. My principle is I'm not doing anything I think might help KC.

And we KNOW Beane had other calls. Do we KNOW that those teams were calling because they wanted Worthy? No. But the Chiefs was not the only offer. I don't buy the "the only way to keep him out of the Chiefs grasp was to pick him" narrative as though it is fact. It may well be the case but we don't know that.

I am certianly not saying take a guy just to keep another team from getting him. But the same as teams generally don't trade in division I would try not to trade with KC.

They could. Equally someone else could have traded into #28 (we know the Bills had other calls - Beane told us so) and other teams could have called Dallas, Baltimore, San Fran as well had Worthy still been there. I think it is more likely than not that they'd have got him anyway. But it isn't a complete given. And I do think there is a principle question about whether you should ever be in the market to help them. Put it this way, if he ends up a stud in KC l this trade will put some pressure on Beane. I don't mind the outcome, because I am sceptical about Worthy as a #1 receiver. But I think there are legit questions about whether as a point of principle it is the right process.

I don't think it is a fact they would have got him regardless. Who knows where San Fran ranked him and equally I think KC was a bit defending themselves against that slew of early 2nd round teams who might have wanted to jump up and possibly they thought Dallas too (although as you know I always thought they were OL no matter what). But I do think more likely than not they'd have got him anyway at #32. Let's see what happens next.

When you trade back twice at the end of a round it is because your board is cleared out of grades for that round. It was the same when we traded back twice at the end of the 2nd in 2022 before taking Cook and the same when we traded back twice on day 3 last year. Let's say he had a high 2nd on Pearsall and might have taken him at #32 it certainly would not have been the case that he was clear of the other options. They will have a ton of round 2 grades to choose from.

FIFY

I also am really a wait and see but in the absence of that I lean slightly towards no.

Problem with the Aiyuk idea is what we have to do now to make room for it. I think the have to pull the Oliver restructure lever (which is fine) but then also kick the extra bits of can they left available on Josh and Von's deals. I am sceptical that they want to do that. Cos they have to fit Aiyuk before they can redo his deal.

Wouldn't be my choice. I'd prefer it to Keon Coleman but it would not be my ideal. It is just where I think they will go.

Agree on Deebo. It would be less than people think. He isn't a slam dunk difference maker in any scheme. A lot of teams wouldn't be able to use him the way you need to in order to maximise his talent.

I actually feel less like it is DeJean here after the trade backs. If they loved DeJean they'd have taken him I reckon. I think it is more likely they take a guy who was not considered a pretty likely first rounder. Troy Franklin is my bet honestly if they pick here.

2023 was always going to hard to top. That was possibly my favourite first round of all time for drama, unpredictability and excitement. I wonder if there is something that correlates strenght of class and drama. In a stronger first round like this teams a lot more willing to wait and let the board fall. Not the same urgency to get up for a specific guy. Whereas in a weak class like last year where everyone agreed true first round grades were scarce teams were much more aggressive in trying to get "their guy" and maximise the impact of that premium asset in a shallow pool.

And I think you were also meaning across the board, right? As an entertainment product not as "this is a dud for the Bills".

Day 1 is in the books! Compared to the absolute bonkers nature of last year's first round this was relatively mild and predictable. As expected the three Quarterbacks that were projected to be the first three picks went in exactly that order. While the Michael Penix Jnr pick from Atlanta at #8 was genuinely shocking (well done to them for keeping that under wraps.... the first sense that it even might happen was in the half hour before the draft began) it was a team picking at their designated spot and without trading up. Last year saw five draft night trades in the top half of round one. This year saw one and it was just the Vikings doing the old pick switcharoo with the Jets from #11 to #10. So not quite the sense of fun and fireworks in 2024 but let's get to breaking it down... The Bills Pick Trades Okay so despite some of us across the pond sitting up until it was already light Brandon Beane and co declined to make a pick in the first round of the NFL draft. Before I get onto the actual nature of the two trade downs worth reflecting that Brandon Beane has possessed 8 first round selections in his 7 years as Bills GM (because he inherited two that first year from the McDermott/Whaley trade back with Kansas City that became Patrick Mahomes). On only two occasions has he stood pat and used the pick he had - 2019 on Ed Oliver and 2021 on Greg Rousseau. He has traded up four times (Allen and Edmunds in '18; Elam in '22 and Kincaid in '23) and has now traded out of round one twice (2020 for Diggs in a trade and last night). At this stage I think it is pretty clear to make the assessment that he is not, by his nature, a "let the board come to him" General Manager. He is a guy who has very specific targets and moves around the draft to try and create value at the spots that he selects guys. I don't make any further comment on that at this stage. It is probably a topic that merits further consideration in terms of the effectiveness of that strategy. But I thought it was an interesting angle on this that maybe didn't jump out to me until I reflected this morning. So onto the trades themselves. Let me say whenever a GM with a pick near the end of a round trades back, and particularity when they do it twice, it tells me their board is out of grades in that specific round. I honestly believe the Bills have no first round grades left. Not just none at receiver. No first round grades. If they had a guy with a true first still on the board I think they would have picked. Even if not at #28 then at #32. You don't give up the extra year of control you get on those first round players if you think you have a guy that is genuinely at that level of talent. But having listened to Beane's presser this was also somewhat about filling holes for them. They think they need to get multiple starters out of this draft it is pretty evident to me and they felt like they have to get more picks higher up than they had. As I said in my compendium thread yesterday the drop off in this class comes between 100 and 120. The Bills had only two picks in that range and one on the fringe (#128). They now have three and still have that fringe pick with the ability to package one or two fifth rounders with that to move inside that top 120 again and get four guys who have a chance to really contribute as rookies. I feel differently about the two trades. The first, which let's be clear was moving BACK with Kansas City four spots in round 1 to move UP 38 spots from the bottom of round 4 to the bottom of round 3 and UP 27 picks from the end of round 7 to the top of it, worked out as a Bills win by the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart - to get up 70 points the Chiefs gave up 82 - but a slight Chiefs win by the Rich Hill chart where to get up 27 points they gave up 25. My take on that trade is I don't like the process but I don't mind the outcome. I do not like the idea of the Bills making it easier for the team that they are chasing in the AFC to build their roster the way they want to build it. I actually had a thought exercise in one of the mock sims where the Chiefs wanted to get up and basically my position was I want your second round pick to be willing to do it (I sent a 4th or a 5th back can't recall). They took Xavier Worthy who was not my favourite fit for the Bills for a number of reasons - ability to get off press, ability to play as primarily an outside guy, lack of physicality given that is what seems to hurt us year after year in the playoffs etc. The fact I think he is a good fit for a Kansas City team trying to rediscover its fastball on offense is neither here nor there for me it is the principle of being open to doing business with the team you are trying to catch. That said, as others have pointed out there was a limited chance that he was going to get picked by the three teams behind us (the 9ers might have been the wildcard given they eventually went Pearsall, I know some people had speculated on Dallas but they were OT all the way IMO) and if we weren't interested in him might as well get the pick value the Chiefs were willing to give you. The second trade, moving back one spot with Carolina who by the Johnson chart gave up 24.5 points to get up 10 points and by the Hill chart gave up 9 points to get up 4 points, was an even clearer Bills win and in principle when you don't have a true first round grade left on your board (and as I explain above I'm certain they didn't) is a trade you should always make. Especially when your mate and former assistant is the GM of the team you are trading with. I all but guarantee Dan Morgan told Beane who he was going to draft there before Beane signed off on it and it wasn't his guy. I didn't like the outcome though. Xavier Legette was my WR4. After the big 3 he was the guy I had the highest grade on. I stood firm on him being a first round talent when after the Senior Bowl there were some well respected guys talking about him as a 3rd round type. I accept that ultimately the Bills felt differently about him. But I think the kid is going to be a stud and if Bryce Young can get him the ball the Panthers are going to be very happy with their pick. My Mock I set a new personal best for 28 of the 32 correctly mocked in round one. As I said at the start I think it was a reasonably predictable year so that definitely played a part but after hitting 27 the last two years I'm happy to go one better with 28. The four I missed - Bo Nix who I wish I'd stuck to my guns on; Darius Robinson who I knew was a potential first rounder after he was invited to the draft but to me him ahead of Johnny Newton is batshit crazy; Ricky Pearsall who genuinely did surprise me; and Xavier Legette who I had pretty much assumed was going #33 to Carolina and if I'd carried on to cover teams who didn't have a first I'd have made that connection. I had 6 exact player and team matches which is about my average. The first four were pretty easy, the other two for me were McCarthy to Minnesota and Tyler Guyton to Dallas. I had a further nine right position wrong player - particularly just with the order the tackles, corners and edge guys came off the board. I will score it by the Fantasy Draft Pros scoring formula later (I'd have ranked top 25 last year if thrown in with all the pros) and while I think I'll be high scoring again I think it will be a high scoring year overall. Player(s) I was high on... So the two guys I was higher than the consensus on all the way through in terms of having first grades on them were Jordan Morgan (who was mocked in the late first range a fair bit as the process went on but a lot of people saw him as more a second round grade) and Xavier Legette. I feel a certain vindication that both went last night. But I do still have three of my first round grades on the board (interestingly all five of my borderline firsts are gone) in Johnny Newton, Cooper DeJean and Kool-Aid McKinstry. I'm most surprised about Kool-Aid of the three even though he was the lowest grade of the three for me. Newton has had injuries and some teams will have size concerns and despite him having outstanding tape the mood music was that he could slip into early day two and Cooper DeJean is also coming off injury and is that kind of hybrid guy who some teams might just struggle to see a fit for. McKinstry in the end I think is just a victim of how late the corner run started. He was the 4th best pure corner and because some of those teams who might have gone corner early went in other directions ultimately it ended up that only three went off the board. Player(s) I was down on... The lowest ranked player to be selected last night by my board was JJ McCarthy. My reasons for not being super high on him are set out in my Quarterback evaluations thread and he ended up #84 on my board. But I expected him to go and we will see whether Minnesota were right to take a chance of a guy with a great deal of variance in outcome given the lack of volume as a passer in college. The next lowest was Darius Robinson who was ranked 63rd on my board. I just don't know what he is. At least he got taken by a 3-4 team because I think his best shot is as a defensive end in a three man front - a 5T type role. I give the kid credit he had a great Senior Bowl and a great Combine. He has aced the process. But I don't see a first round player on tape. He has a third round grade for me. Some natural physical ability but a lack of refined technique and no obvious NFL role fit. Let's see if Arizona can make it work out. Biggest shock of the night Easily Michael Penix Jnr to the Falcons at #8. I like Penix. He was my QB3 after Williams and Maye. If you want a pure, conventional, pocket passer who throws the ball down the football field and doesn't need a load of gimmicky ways to get the ball out of his hands then Michael Penix is for you. He actually has some Kirk Cousins to his game which is ironic because Kirk Cousins is the guy he will now go and back up in Atlanta. Where it is strange to me is taking a guy who is an older prospect, already 24, and asking him to sit behind a guy you just gave a 4 year $180m deal to. Even if Penix sits for two years (by which time he will be 26) and then they are able to trade Kirk (who by that point will be 38) they will still end up with $25m in dead cap. In a sense I congratulate them for being aggressive at the Quarterback spot. That is the way to play the game when there is a guy there you like and your guy is older than 35 - I said it when the Packers took Jordan Love and it worked out in the end for them. And I certainly don't shed any tears for Kirk Cousins who has played the business of the NFL pretty well himself and has to accept when teams do the same. But overall it is certainly an odd approach to managing the QB position from the Falcons. That said, watching Desmond Ridder try and play Quarterback in the NFL that last two years is bound to give you a sense of urgency at the spot Worst Pick I hate what the Raiders did. Hate it. Okay, they were probably planning to take Penix, thought they were safe to wait until #13 for him and then wham the Falcons gazump them. But for a team with so many major holes to spend the 13th overall pick on a tight is just baffling to me. They have basically one proven player on their offensive line in Kolton Miller but refused to take advantage of the excellent tackle class. Their starting corners are Jack Jones who even Bill Belichick couldn't turn into a serviceable DB and was picked up off waivers from New England and a guy name Jakorian Bennett (no? me neither) and yet they pass on Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold. Hell I think wide receiver would have been a luxury pick but at least there you can say well their #1 in Devante Adams turns 32 during next season and might be coming to the end. This is nothing against Brock Bowers. In the 11 seasons I have been doing this he became only the third tight end I had a true 1st round grade on. He is a good player. I wish him well. But for a team with holes at the spots that most impact you winning and losing football games to spend the 13th overall pick on a tight end when the board was as it was? Speechless. Dumb, dumb move. Big Board Check I know, the Bills haven't picked yet and go into day 2 with the first pick of the night at #33 this is the bit you all care about.... I don't think it is a lock we pick at #33 either based on Beane saying they "have already taken calls" and you do quite often see teams overpay for #33 and #34 when they re=set their boards after day 1 and convince themselves there is a can't miss guy at the top. I actually think Newton IS a can't miss guy as well for any team whose best defender isn't already their 3T.... the question is how much further is Beane willing to move back. Anyway - here is my top 15 remaining as we stand right now: 1. Jer'Zhan Newton*, DT, Illinois 2. Cooper DeJean*, CB, Iowa 3. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama 4. Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon 5. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas 6. Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota 7. Braden Fiske, DT, FSU 8. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia 9. Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri 10. Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington 11. Kamarri Lassiter, CB, Georgia 12. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon 13. Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas 14. Payton Wilson, LB, NC State 15. Christian Haynes, IOL, UConn And as a bonus feature.... if I had to predict what the Bills do at #33 it would be select Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon. I'd pick Mitchell but my gut is telling my they are going Franklin. Enjoy day 2 folks. I'll be back to debrief tomorrow!

The two guys I had first round grades on that were possibly not the consensus - Legette and Morgan - both went in the first round. Pleased for both those guys. They will be studs. I suppose at this point it is all aboard the AD Mitchell train. I'll be back in the morning with my debrief. Night all.

There is my guy. I'm going to bed. To sob. ***** Brandon Beane.

Remember Dan Morgan is the GM there. Beane know EXACTLY who they are taking. And obviously wasn't his guy. We will own the 5th round. Lot of snacks needed for Saturday.

Yea others have said that and I think it is correct. Oh well. We are out of round 1 now.

Pearsall is not worth that pick IMO.... but I love his fit in that Shanny offense.

That is a fair point tbh. Not sure Worthy was going to any of the teams between Buffalo and Kansas City.

I mean we got better than the value chart says for it... but agree... it just isn't worth a 3rd round pick IMO

Wow. I hate that decision from Beane. Worthy isn't my guy necessarily but why are you giving the team you are trying to catch and surpass a guy they really covet in a position where they need help?

Got a 3rd and moved up in the 4th and 7th...